| League | Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSL | AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Orlando Pirates A | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Kaizer Chiefs H | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Milford FCvSiwelele | Siwelele A thin data | 35.9% | 2.79 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Milford FCvSiwelele | Milford FC H thin data | 34.9% | 2.87 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Durban City H | 34.7% | 2.89 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Golden Arrows A | 34.1% | 2.94 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Draw | 31.3% | 3.20 | — | — | — |
| PSL | AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Draw | 30.5% | 3.28 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Milford FCvSiwelele | Draw thin data | 29.3% | 3.42 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Draw | 28.9% | 3.47 | — | — | — |
| PSL | Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Sekhukhune United A | 26.8% | 3.73 | — | — | — |
| PSL | AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Amazulu H | 15.7% | 6.36 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Kept separate from the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that, books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has further to travel.
No goal markets priced. These need over/under and both-teams-to-score odds, which only arrive with --odds.
The vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.
| Match | Combination | Model | Fair | vs naive | Book | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Home + Home clean sheet | 11.7% | 8.53 | +171% | — | — |
| Milford FCvSiwelele | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | +117% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Away + Away clean sheet | 18.0% | 5.56 | +107% | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 25.5% | 3.93 | +105% | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Away + Away clean sheet | 18.4% | 5.43 | +104% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 26.0% | 3.84 | +102% | — | — |
| Milford FCvSiwelele | Away + Away clean sheet | 19.0% | 5.25 | +99% | — | — |
| AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | +80% | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Home + Home clean sheet | 27.8% | 3.60 | +62% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Home + Home clean sheet | 28.1% | 3.56 | +61% | — | — |
| Milford FCvSiwelele | Home + Home clean sheet | 28.0% | 3.57 | +61% | — | — |
| AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Away + Away clean sheet | 35.4% | 2.83 | +42% | — | — |
| AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Draw + Under 2.5 | 23.7% | 4.23 | +41% | — | — |
| AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 48.7% | 2.06 | +37% | — | — |
| Milford FCvSiwelele | Home + Over 2.5 | 15.6% | 6.40 | +36% | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Home + Over 2.5 | 17.2% | 5.83 | +33% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Home + Over 2.5 | 17.8% | 5.62 | +33% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | +32% | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | +31% | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Draw + Under 2.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | +31% | — | — |
Legs from different matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything. Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a good idea.
| Legs | N | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Margin cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milford FC v Siwelele — under 3.5 goals Durban City v Golden Arrows — under 3.5 goals thin data | 2 | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — | −9% |
| Milford FC v Siwelele — under 3.5 goals Kaizer Chiefs v Sekhukhune United — under 3.5 goals thin data | 2 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — | −9% |
| Durban City v Golden Arrows — under 3.5 goals Kaizer Chiefs v Sekhukhune United — under 3.5 goals | 2 | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — | −9% |
| Amazulu v Orlando Pirates — Orlando Pirates or draw (A) Kaizer Chiefs v Sekhukhune United — Kaizer Chiefs or draw (H) | 2 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — | −9% |
| Amazulu v Orlando Pirates — Orlando Pirates or draw (A) Milford FC v Siwelele — under 2.5 goals thin data | 2 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — | −9% |
| Amazulu v Orlando Pirates — under 3.5 goals Kaizer Chiefs v Sekhukhune United — Kaizer Chiefs or draw (H) | 2 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — | −9% |
| Amazulu v Orlando Pirates — under 3.5 goals Milford FC v Siwelele — under 2.5 goals thin data | 2 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — | −9% |
| Milford FC v Siwelele — under 3.5 goals Amazulu v Orlando Pirates — Orlando Pirates or draw (A) thin data | 2 | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — | −9% |
| Durban City v Golden Arrows — under 3.5 goals Amazulu v Orlando Pirates — under 3.5 goals | 2 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — | −9% |
| Kaizer Chiefs v Sekhukhune United — under 3.5 goals Milford FC v Siwelele — under 2.5 goals thin data | 2 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — | −9% |
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AmazuluvOrlando Pirates | Orlando Pirates A | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune United | Kaizer Chiefs H | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — | — |
| Milford FCvSiwelele | Siwelele A thin data | 35.9% | 2.79 | — | — | — |
| Milford FCvSiwelele | Milford FC H thin data | 34.9% | 2.87 | — | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Durban City H | 34.7% | 2.89 | — | — | — |
| Durban CityvGolden Arrows | Golden Arrows A | 34.1% | 2.94 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.