Match model — probabilities and prices

PSL · every scheduled fixture in this window · generated 2026-08-09 08:49 UTC
Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

PSL 12 fixtures across 4 days

Tuesday 11 August (3 matches) full day →
Best value on this date
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
TS GalaxyvMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns A67.8%1.47———
Chippa UnitedvRichards BayChippa United H39.5%2.53———
Polokwane CityvStellenboschDraw35.7%2.80———
Polokwane CityvStellenboschPolokwane City H32.5%3.08———
Polokwane CityvStellenboschStellenbosch A31.8%3.14———
Chippa UnitedvRichards BayDraw31.1%3.22———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Chippa United HOME v Richards Bay AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Chippa United 0.96 – 0.87 Richards Bay
Chippa United 40% · draw 31% · Richards Bay 29%
Chippa United win
40%
Draw
31%
Richards Bay win
29%
Chippa United or draw
71%
either team
69%
draw or Richards Bay
60%
Over 1.5
55%
Under 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
29%
Under 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
BTTS Yes
40%
BTTS No
60%
Chippa United clean sheet
42%
Richards Bay clean sheet
38%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 17% · 1–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 13%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.44); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +122%
  • Richards Bay win + Richards Bay clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.62); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
  • Chippa United win + Chippa United clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.95); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +69%
  • Chippa United win + Over 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.44); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +35%

Polokwane City HOME v Stellenbosch AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Polokwane City 0.75 – 0.80 Stellenbosch
Polokwane City 32% · draw 36% · Stellenbosch 32%
Polokwane City win
32%
Draw
36%
Stellenbosch win
32%
Polokwane City or draw
68%
either team
64%
draw or Stellenbosch
68%
Over 1.5
47%
Under 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
21%
Under 2.5
79%
Over 3.5
8%
Under 3.5
92%
BTTS Yes
35%
BTTS No
65%
Polokwane City clean sheet
45%
Stellenbosch clean sheet
47%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 22% · 0–1 16% · 1–0 15% · 1–1 13%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.10); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +170%
  • Polokwane City win + Polokwane City clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.30); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
  • Stellenbosch win + Stellenbosch clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.95); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.86); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +19%

TS Galaxy HOME v Mamelodi Sundowns AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals TS Galaxy 0.80 – 1.82 Mamelodi Sundowns
TS Galaxy 13% · draw 19% · Mamelodi Sundowns 68%
TS Galaxy win
13%
Draw
19%
Mamelodi Sund… win
68%
TS Galaxy or draw
32%
either team
81%
draw or Mamelodi Sund…
87%
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
BTTS Yes
48%
BTTS No
52%
TS Galaxy clean sheet
16%
Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet
45%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 13% · 0–2 12% · 1–1 11% · 1–2 10%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.82); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +57%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.32); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.48); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +47%
  • Mamelodi Sund… win + Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +35%
Wednesday 12 August (4 matches) full day →
Best value on this date
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
AmazuluvOrlando PiratesOrlando Pirates A53.8%1.86———
Kaizer ChiefsvSekhukhune UnitedKaizer Chiefs H44.3%2.26———
Milford FCvSiweleleSiwelele A thin data35.9%2.79———
Milford FCvSiweleleMilford FC H thin data34.9%2.87———
Durban CityvGolden ArrowsDurban City H34.7%2.89———
Durban CityvGolden ArrowsGolden Arrows A34.1%2.94———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Amazulu HOME v Orlando Pirates AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Amazulu 0.77 – 1.48 Orlando Pirates
Amazulu 16% · draw 30% · Orlando Pirates 54%
Amazulu win
16%
Draw
30%
Orlando Pirat… win
54%
Amazulu or draw
46%
either team
70%
draw or Orlando Pirat…
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
BTTS Yes
44%
BTTS No
56%
Amazulu clean sheet
23%
Orlando Pirat… clean sheet
47%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–2 12% · 0–0 11%
Correlated combinations
  • Amazulu win + Amazulu clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.53); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +171%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.42); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +80%
  • Orlando Pirat… win + Orlando Pirat… clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +42%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.23); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +41%

Durban City HOME v Golden Arrows AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Durban City 1.11 – 0.86 Golden Arrows
Durban City 35% · draw 31% · Golden Arrows 34%
Durban City win
35%
Draw
31%
Golden Arrows win
34%
Durban City or draw
66%
either team
69%
draw or Golden Arrows
65%
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
BTTS Yes
42%
BTTS No
58%
Durban City clean sheet
42%
Golden Arrows clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.93); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +105%
  • Golden Arrows win + Golden Arrows clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +104%
  • Durban City win + Durban City clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +62%
  • Durban City win + Over 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.83); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +33%

Kaizer Chiefs HOME v Sekhukhune United AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Kaizer Chiefs 1.14 – 0.86 Sekhukhune United
Kaizer Chiefs 44% · draw 29% · Sekhukhune United 27%
Kaizer Chiefs win
44%
Draw
29%
Sekhukhune Un… win
27%
Kaizer Chiefs or draw
73%
either team
71%
draw or Sekhukhune Un…
56%
Over 1.5
60%
Under 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
BTTS Yes
43%
BTTS No
57%
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
42%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
  • Sekhukhune Un… win + Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.56); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +107%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.84); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +102%
  • Kaizer Chiefs win + Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.56); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +61%
  • Kaizer Chiefs win + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +33%

Milford FC HOME v Siwelele AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Milford FC 1.05 – 0.82 Siwelele
Thin data: Milford FC 4 matches, Siwelele 30 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Milford FC 35% · draw 29% · Siwelele 36%
Milford FC win
35%
Draw
29%
Siwelele win
36%
Milford FC or draw
64%
either team
71%
draw or Siwelele
65%
Over 1.5
56%
Under 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
BTTS Yes
41%
BTTS No
59%
Milford FC clean sheet
44%
Siwelele clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 16% · 1–0 16% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 12%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +117%
  • Siwelele win + Siwelele clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.25); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +99%
  • Milford FC win + Milford FC clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.57); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +61%
  • Milford FC win + Over 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.40); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +36%
Friday 14 August (1 match) full day →
Best value on this date
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
StellenboschvMarumo GallantsStellenbosch H53.2%1.88———
StellenboschvMarumo GallantsDraw28.6%3.49———
StellenboschvMarumo GallantsMarumo Gallants A18.1%5.51———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Stellenbosch HOME v Marumo Gallants AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Stellenbosch 1.49 – 0.69 Marumo Gallants
Stellenbosch 53% · draw 29% · Marumo Gallants 18%
Stellenbosch win
53%
Draw
29%
Marumo Gallan… win
18%
Stellenbosch or draw
82%
either team
71%
draw or Marumo Gallan…
47%
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
BTTS Yes
42%
BTTS No
58%
Stellenbosch clean sheet
50%
Marumo Gallan… clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 16% · 2–0 13% · 1–1 12% · 0–0 12%
Correlated combinations
  • Marumo Gallan… win + Marumo Gallan… clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.35); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +185%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.73); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +86%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.18); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +40%
  • Stellenbosch win + Stellenbosch clean sheet — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +36%
Saturday 15 August (4 matches) full day →
Best value on this date
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
Kaizer ChiefsvMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns A60.9%1.64———
AmazuluvSiweleleAmazulu H44.1%2.27———
Sekhukhune UnitedvPolokwane CitySekhukhune United H42.0%2.38———
Durban CityvRichards BayDurban City H41.2%2.42———
Sekhukhune UnitedvPolokwane CityDraw35.0%2.86———
Durban CityvRichards BayDraw33.7%2.96———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Amazulu HOME v Siwelele AWAY

13:00 · PSL · expected goals Amazulu 1.13 – 0.83 Siwelele
Amazulu 44% · draw 31% · Siwelele 25%
Amazulu win
44%
Draw
31%
Siwelele win
25%
Amazulu or draw
75%
either team
69%
draw or Siwelele
56%
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
BTTS Yes
42%
BTTS No
58%
Amazulu clean sheet
43%
Siwelele clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 0–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
  • Siwelele win + Siwelele clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.67); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +109%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.97); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +105%
  • Amazulu win + Amazulu clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.46); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +58%
  • Amazulu win + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.64); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +34%

Kaizer Chiefs HOME v Mamelodi Sundowns AWAY

13:00 · PSL · expected goals Kaizer Chiefs 0.79 – 1.43 Mamelodi Sundowns
Kaizer Chiefs 16% · draw 23% · Mamelodi Sundowns 61%
Kaizer Chiefs win
16%
Draw
23%
Mamelodi Sund… win
61%
Kaizer Chiefs or draw
39%
either team
77%
draw or Mamelodi Sund…
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
BTTS Yes
44%
BTTS No
56%
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
24%
Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet
46%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 11% · 0–2 11%
Correlated combinations
  • Kaizer Chiefs win + Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.02); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +161%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.42); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +82%
  • Mamelodi Sund… win + Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +45%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +39%

Sekhukhune United HOME v Polokwane City AWAY

15:30 · PSL · expected goals Sekhukhune United 1.00 – 0.66 Polokwane City
Sekhukhune United 42% · draw 35% · Polokwane City 23%
Sekhukhune Un… win
42%
Draw
35%
Polokwane City win
23%
Sekhukhune Un… or draw
77%
either team
65%
draw or Polokwane City
58%
Over 1.5
50%
Under 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
10%
Under 3.5
90%
BTTS Yes
36%
BTTS No
64%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
52%
Polokwane City clean sheet
37%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 20% · 1–0 18% · 1–1 13% · 0–1 12%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.56); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +149%
  • Polokwane City win + Polokwane City clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.81); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +104%
  • Sekhukhune Un… win + Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.11); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +48%
  • Sekhukhune Un… win + Over 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +44%

Durban City HOME v Richards Bay AWAY

18:00 · PSL · expected goals Durban City 0.97 – 0.68 Richards Bay
Durban City 41% · draw 34% · Richards Bay 25%
Durban City win
41%
Draw
34%
Richards Bay win
25%
Durban City or draw
75%
either team
66%
draw or Richards Bay
59%
Over 1.5
50%
Under 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
9%
Under 3.5
91%
BTTS Yes
36%
BTTS No
64%
Durban City clean sheet
51%
Richards Bay clean sheet
38%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 20% · 1–0 18% · 1–1 13% · 0–1 12%
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.59); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +151%
  • Richards Bay win + Richards Bay clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.53); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +98%
  • Durban City win + Durban City clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.22); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +50%
  • Durban City win + Over 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +44%