Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
PSL Premier Division (South Africa) · 8 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Siwelele HOME
v Chippa United AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Siwelele 1.25 – 0.78 Chippa United
Siwelele 47%
· draw 30%
· Chippa United 24%
Chippa United clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 16% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Siwelele | Draw | Chippa United |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.2% | — | — | 48.3% | — | — | 18.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.5% | — | — | 42.1% | — | — | 20.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Chippa United win + Chippa United clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.68); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +100%
- Siwelele win + Siwelele clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +49%
- Siwelele win + Over 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.80); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +33%
Marumo Gallants HOME
v TS Galaxy AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Marumo Gallants 1.06 – 1.11 TS Galaxy
Marumo Gallants 32%
· draw 31%
· TS Galaxy 37%
Marumo Gallan… or draw
63%
Marumo Gallan… clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 12% · 1–0 12%
Half-time markets
| Marumo Gallants | Draw | TS Galaxy |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.6% | — | — | 47.1% | — | — | 27.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.5% | — | — | 41.0% | — | — | 30.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Marumo Gallan… win + Marumo Gallan… clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.75); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.30); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- TS Galaxy win + TS Galaxy clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.37); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +82%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 49% (fair 2.03); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +40%
Kruger United HOME
v Durban City AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Kruger United 1.17 – 1.09 Durban City
Kruger United 39%
· draw 28%
· Durban City 33%
Kruger United clean sheet
34%
Durban City clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–1 11% · 0–0 11%
Half-time markets
| Kruger United | Draw | Durban City |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.2% | — | — | 46.0% | — | — | 25.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.4% | — | — | 40.0% | — | — | 28.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Durban City win + Durban City clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.95); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
- Kruger United win + Kruger United clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.40); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +82%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.09); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.13); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +44%
Orlando Pirates HOME
v Sekhukhune United AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Orlando Pirates 1.81 – 0.66 Sekhukhune United
Orlando Pirates 67%
· draw 21%
· Sekhukhune United 12%
Orlando Pirat… or draw
88%
draw or Sekhukhune Un…
33%
Orlando Pirat… clean sheet
52%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 2–0 14% · 1–1 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Orlando Pirates | Draw | Sekhukhune United |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 45.8% | — | — | 41.3% | — | — | 12.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 51.4% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — | 13.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +66%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.18); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.23); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +37%
- Orlando Pirat… win + Orlando Pirat… clean sheet — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +28%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Polokwane City HOME
v Milford FC AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Polokwane City 0.94 – 0.83 Milford FC
Polokwane City 40%
· draw 32%
· Milford FC 29%
Polokwane City or draw
71%
Polokwane City clean sheet
44%
Milford FC clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 18% · 1–0 16% · 0–1 14% · 1–1 14%
Half-time markets
| Polokwane City | Draw | Milford FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.5% | — | — | 52.6% | — | — | 22.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.9% | — | — | 46.4% | — | — | 24.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.78); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +133%
- Milford FC win + Milford FC clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.62); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- Polokwane City win + Polokwane City clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.82); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +66%
- Polokwane City win + Over 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.80); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +37%
Golden Arrows HOME
v Stellenbosch AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Golden Arrows 1.15 – 1.16 Stellenbosch
Golden Arrows 37%
· draw 32%
· Stellenbosch 31%
Golden Arrows clean sheet
31%
Stellenbosch clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Golden Arrows | Draw | Stellenbosch |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.1% | — | — | 45.4% | — | — | 27.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.0% | — | — | 39.4% | — | — | 30.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Golden Arrows win + Golden Arrows clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.78); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
- Stellenbosch win + Stellenbosch clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.68); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +88%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.97); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.19); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +46%
Mamelodi Sundowns HOME
v Amazulu AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Mamelodi Sundowns 2.15 – 0.70 Amazulu
Mamelodi Sundowns 74%
· draw 16%
· Amazulu 10%
Mamelodi Sund… or draw
90%
Mamelodi Sund… clean sheet
49%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 12% · 3–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Mamelodi Sundowns | Draw | Amazulu |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 51.2% | — | — | 36.7% | — | — | 12.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 57.0% | — | — | 30.5% | — | — | 12.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.64); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +74%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +47%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +46%
- Mamelodi Sund… win + Over 4.5 — 14% (fair 7.03); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +26%
Richards Bay HOME
v Kaizer Chiefs AWAY
17:30 ·
PSL · expected goals
Richards Bay 0.85 – 0.98 Kaizer Chiefs
Richards Bay 28%
· draw 30%
· Kaizer Chiefs 42%
Richards Bay clean sheet
37%
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
43%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 16% · 0–1 15% · 1–1 14% · 1–0 13%
Half-time markets
| Richards Bay | Draw | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 22.2% | — | — | 51.5% | — | — | 26.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.9% | — | — | 45.3% | — | — | 29.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.45); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +123%
- Richards Bay win + Richards Bay clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.76); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +88%
- Kaizer Chiefs win + Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.81); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +67%
- Kaizer Chiefs win + Over 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.18); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +36%