Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SWE1 Allsvenskan (Sweden) · 7 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Sirius HOME
v BK Hacken AWAY
17:00 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
Sirius 2.01 – 1.68 BK Hacken
Sirius 44%
· draw 26%
· BK Hacken 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 9% · 2–1 8% · 2–2 7% · 1–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Sirius | Draw | BK Hacken |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.1% | — | — | 34.0% | — | — | 28.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 40.1% | — | — | 29.1% | — | — | 30.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BK Hacken win + BK Hacken clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.39); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +144%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.00); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +138%
- Sirius win + Sirius clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.32); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +87%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 11% (fair 8.72); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +82%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Orgryte IS HOME
v Halmstad AWAY
13:00 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
Orgryte IS 1.57 – 0.74 Halmstad
Thin data: Orgryte IS 2 matches, Halmstad 122 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Orgryte IS 45%
· draw 29%
· Halmstad 26%
Orgryte IS clean sheet
48%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 2–0 12% · 1–1 12% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Orgryte IS | Draw | Halmstad |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 40.2% | — | — | 44.0% | — | — | 15.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 45.2% | — | — | 37.8% | — | — | 17.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Halmstad win + Halmstad clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.53); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +195%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.34); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.51); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +44%
- Orgryte IS win + Orgryte IS clean sheet — 37% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +38%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
IFK Goteborg HOME
v IF Elfsborg AWAY
12:00 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
IFK Goteborg 1.47 – 1.26 IF Elfsborg
IFK Goteborg 43%
· draw 29%
· IF Elfsborg 28%
IFK Goteborg clean sheet
29%
IF Elfsborg clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| IFK Goteborg | Draw | IF Elfsborg |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.5% | — | — | 41.1% | — | — | 26.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.8% | — | — | 35.4% | — | — | 28.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- IF Elfsborg win + IF Elfsborg clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.23); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +119%
- IFK Goteborg win + IFK Goteborg clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.64); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +81%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.15); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Vasteras SK FK HOME
v Kalmar FF AWAY
12:00 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
Vasteras SK FK 1.33 – 1.14 Kalmar FF
Vasteras SK FK 36%
· draw 29%
· Kalmar FF 35%
Vasteras SK FK or draw
65%
Vasteras SK FK clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Vasteras SK FK | Draw | Kalmar FF |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.0% | — | — | 43.6% | — | — | 25.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.4% | — | — | 37.7% | — | — | 27.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Kalmar FF win + Kalmar FF clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.70); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
- Vasteras SK FK win + Vasteras SK FK clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.33); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +78%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
IF Brommapojkarna HOME
v Degerfors IF AWAY
14:30 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
IF Brommapojkarna 1.89 – 1.18 Degerfors IF
IF Brommapojkarna 46%
· draw 26%
· Degerfors IF 28%
IF Brommapojk… or draw
72%
IF Brommapojk… clean sheet
31%
Degerfors IF clean sheet
15%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| IF Brommapojkarna | Draw | Degerfors IF |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 40.8% | — | — | 37.6% | — | — | 21.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 45.0% | — | — | 32.0% | — | — | 23.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Degerfors IF win + Degerfors IF clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.88); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +188%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.36); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +66%
- IF Brommapojk… win + IF Brommapojk… clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.87); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Hammarby FF HOME
v Gais AWAY
14:30 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
Hammarby FF 1.50 – 0.93 Gais
Hammarby FF 50%
· draw 26%
· Gais 23%
Hammarby FF clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Hammarby FF | Draw | Gais |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.7% | — | — | 43.4% | — | — | 19.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 41.0% | — | — | 37.4% | — | — | 21.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Gais win + Gais clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.66); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +156%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.87); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +67%
- Hammarby FF win + Hammarby FF clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.30); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +53%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.30); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +47%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Malmo FF HOME
v Djurgardens IF AWAY
17:00 ·
SWE1 · expected goals
Malmo FF 1.50 – 1.25 Djurgardens IF
Malmo FF 36%
· draw 24%
· Djurgardens IF 40%
draw or Djurgardens IF
64%
Djurgardens IF clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Malmo FF | Draw | Djurgardens IF |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.1% | — | — | 40.9% | — | — | 26.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.4% | — | — | 35.2% | — | — | 28.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Djurgardens IF win + Djurgardens IF clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.43); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +123%
- Malmo FF win + Malmo FF clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +79%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.22); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%