Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
J1 J1 League (Japan) · 7 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Kashima HOME
v Avispa Fukuoka AWAY
09:00 ·
J1 · expected goals
Kashima 1.40 – 0.68 Avispa Fukuoka
Kashima 57%
· draw 26%
· Avispa Fukuoka 18%
draw or Avispa Fukuoka
43%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 17% · 0–0 13% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 12%
Half-time markets
| Kashima | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.5% | — | — | 47.0% | — | — | 15.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.4% | — | — | 40.6% | — | — | 17.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Avispa Fukuoka win + Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.49); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +169%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.93); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +94%
- Kashima win + Kashima clean sheet — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +38%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.99); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +36%
Fagiano Okayama HOME
v Tokyo Verdy AWAY
09:30 ·
J1 · expected goals
Fagiano Okayama 1.08 – 0.82 Tokyo Verdy
Fagiano Okayama 37%
· draw 33%
· Tokyo Verdy 30%
Fagiano Okaya… or draw
70%
Fagiano Okaya… clean sheet
44%
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet
34%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 16% · 0–0 16% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 12%
Half-time markets
| Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.8% | — | — | 50.5% | — | — | 20.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.6% | — | — | 44.3% | — | — | 23.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.25); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +115%
- Tokyo Verdy win + Tokyo Verdy clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +103%
- Fagiano Okaya… win + Fagiano Okaya… clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.48); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +59%
- Fagiano Okaya… win + Over 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.16); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +35%
Cerezo Osaka HOME
v Shimizu S-pulse AWAY
10:00 ·
J1 · expected goals
Cerezo Osaka 1.71 – 1.10 Shimizu S-pulse
Cerezo Osaka 51%
· draw 27%
· Shimizu S-pulse 23%
draw or Shimizu S-pul…
49%
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet
33%
Shimizu S-pul… clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.6% | — | — | 39.8% | — | — | 21.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.7% | — | — | 34.0% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Shimizu S-pul… win + Shimizu S-pul… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.57); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +169%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.87); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +67%
- Cerezo Osaka win + Cerezo Osaka clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.73); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +58%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.55); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +57%
Nagoya Grampus HOME
v Gamba Osaka AWAY
10:00 ·
J1 · expected goals
Nagoya Grampus 1.40 – 1.22 Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus 36%
· draw 29%
· Gamba Osaka 35%
Nagoya Grampus or draw
65%
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet
29%
Gamba Osaka clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.5% | — | — | 42.1% | — | — | 26.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.8% | — | — | 36.3% | — | — | 29.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Gamba Osaka win + Gamba Osaka clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.89); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +113%
- Nagoya Grampus win + Nagoya Grampus clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.60); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +82%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +62%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.45); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima HOME
v Kawasaki Frontale AWAY
10:15 ·
J1 · expected goals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.85 – 1.22 Kawasaki Frontale
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 51%
· draw 24%
· Kawasaki Frontale 26%
Sanfrecce Hir… or draw
74%
draw or Kawasaki Fron…
49%
Sanfrecce Hir… clean sheet
30%
Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.7% | — | — | 37.7% | — | — | 22.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.7% | — | — | 32.2% | — | — | 24.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Kawasaki Fron… win + Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.33); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +176%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.33); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +82%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.32); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
- Sanfrecce Hir… win + Sanfrecce Hir… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.06); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +60%
Yokohama F. Marinos HOME
v Vissel Kobe AWAY
10:30 ·
J1 · expected goals
Yokohama F. Marinos 1.34 – 1.29 Vissel Kobe
Yokohama F. Marinos 35%
· draw 27%
· Vissel Kobe 38%
Yokohama F. M… or draw
62%
Yokohama F. M… clean sheet
28%
Vissel Kobe clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Vissel Kobe |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.8% | — | — | 42.1% | — | — | 28.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.8% | — | — | 36.3% | — | — | 30.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Vissel Kobe win + Vissel Kobe clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.42); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
- Yokohama F. M… win + Yokohama F. M… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.00); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +91%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.62); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +62%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Machida Zelvia HOME
v Urawa AWAY
10:30 ·
J1 · expected goals
Machida Zelvia 1.33 – 0.90 Urawa
Machida Zelvia 43%
· draw 31%
· Urawa 26%
Machida Zelvia or draw
74%
Machida Zelvia clean sheet
40%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 11% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Machida Zelvia | Draw | Urawa |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.5% | — | — | 45.9% | — | — | 20.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.5% | — | — | 39.8% | — | — | 22.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Urawa win + Urawa clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.54); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +132%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.23); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
- Machida Zelvia win + Machida Zelvia clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.40); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +57%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.08); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +40%