Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
J1 8 fixtures across 3 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 4.94 | +148.1% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | BTTS | Yes— | 55.3% | 1.81 | 4.47 | +147.2% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 8.32 | +141.3% | 3.00% |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 3.82 | +103.9% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 6.28 | +101.0% | 3.00% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 7.99 | +98.4% | 3.00% |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 2.61 | +94.2% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 2.51 | +92.6% | — |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Totals | Over3.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 8.27 | +87.0% | 2.99% |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Totals | Over2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 4.35 | +86.0% | 3.00% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | 4.09 | +85.9% | 3.00% |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Totals | Over1.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | 2.59 | +77.1% | — |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 2.46 | +74.0% | — |
| Avispa FukuokavCerezo Osaka | Totals | Over1.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 2.56 | +63.2% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | BTTS | Yes— | 53.3% | 1.88 | 2.96 | +57.6% | 3.00% |
| UrawavSanfrecce Hiroshima | Totals | Over1.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 2.36 | +47.4% | 3.00% |
| Avispa FukuokavCerezo Osaka | Totals | Over2.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.94 | +46.7% | 3.00% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | BTTS | Yes— | 46.9% | 2.13 | 3.00 | +40.9% | 3.00% |
| UrawavSanfrecce Hiroshima | Totals | Over2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 3.86 | +39.4% | 3.00% |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | BTTS | Yes— | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.94 | +37.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Kawasaki Frontale A | 44.7% | 2.23 | 2.32 | +3.6% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Tokyo Verdy H | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.15 | -13.1% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.11 | -13.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 4.94 | +148.1% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 8.32 | +141.3% | 3.00% |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 2.61 | +94.2% | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKawasaki Frontale | BTTS | Yes— | 53.3% | 1.88 | 2.96 | +57.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Tokyo Verdy HOME
v Kawasaki Frontale AWAY
09:00 · J1 · expected goals
Tokyo Verdy 1.22 – 1.46 Kawasaki Frontale
Tokyo Verdy 28%
· draw 28%
· Kawasaki Frontale 45%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 27.5% | 29.4% | 3.15 | -1.9pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.8% | 3.11 | -2.1pp |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 44.7% | 40.7% | 2.32 | +4.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 36.0% | 2.61 | +38.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.6% | 64.0% | 1.47 | -38.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 20.4% | 4.94 | +29.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | 79.6% | 1.27 | -29.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.0% | 11.9% | 8.32 | +17.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.0% | 88.1% | 1.13 | -17.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.3% | 33.1% | 2.96 | +20.2pp |
| BTTS No | 46.7% | 66.9% | 1.46 | -20.2pp |
draw or Kawasaki Fron…
72%
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet
23%
Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Tokyo Verdy win + Tokyo Verdy clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.30); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +119%
- Kawasaki Fron… win + Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.52); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +78%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.70); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Tokyo VerdyvKashiwa Reysol | Kashiwa Reysol A | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKashiwa Reysol | Draw | 27.9% | 3.59 | — | — | — |
| Tokyo VerdyvKashiwa Reysol | Tokyo Verdy H | 23.9% | 4.19 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Tokyo Verdy HOME
v Kashiwa Reysol AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Tokyo Verdy 0.95 – 1.11 Kashiwa Reysol
Tokyo Verdy 24%
· draw 28%
· Kashiwa Reysol 48%
draw or Kashiwa Reysol
76%
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet
33%
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 1–0 11%
Correlated combinations
- Tokyo Verdy win + Tokyo Verdy clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.11); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +98%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.59); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +95%
- Kashiwa Reysol win + Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.94); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +70%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Vissel Kobe H | 54.0% | 1.85 | 2.30 | +24.0% | 3.00% |
| UrawavSanfrecce Hiroshima | Urawa H | 30.6% | 3.27 | 3.84 | +17.4% | 1.53% |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Yokohama F. Marinos A | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.87 | +16.3% | 2.19% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Kashima H | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.72 | +0.6% | — |
| Avispa FukuokavCerezo Osaka | Draw | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.27 | -0.5% | — |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Draw | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.61 | -5.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | BTTS | Yes— | 55.3% | 1.81 | 4.47 | +147.2% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 3.82 | +103.9% | — |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 6.28 | +101.0% | 3.00% |
| KashimavNagoya Grampus | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 7.99 | +98.4% | 3.00% |
| Shimizu S-pulsevYokohama F. Marinos | Totals | Over1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 2.51 | +92.6% | — |
| Vissel KobevFC Tokyo | Totals | Over3.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 8.27 | +87.0% | 2.99% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kashima HOME
v Nagoya Grampus AWAY
09:00 · J1 · expected goals
Kashima 1.67 – 0.81 Nagoya Grampus
Kashima 58%
· draw 26%
· Nagoya Grampus 15%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kashima | 58.4% | 55.3% | 1.72 | +3.1pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.5% | 3.61 | +0.7pp |
| Nagoya Grampus | 15.4% | 19.2% | 4.69 | -3.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.6% | 38.3% | 2.46 | +32.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.4% | 61.7% | 1.53 | -32.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 25.0% | 4.09 | +20.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 75.0% | 1.36 | -20.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.8% | 12.6% | 7.99 | +12.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | 87.4% | 1.15 | -12.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 46.9% | 32.2% | 3.00 | +14.7pp |
| BTTS No | 53.1% | 67.8% | 1.43 | -14.7pp |
draw or Nagoya Grampus
42%
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 12% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.85); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +50%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +44%
- Kashima win + Kashima clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +40%
Shimizu S-pulse HOME
v Yokohama F. Marinos AWAY
09:30 · J1 · expected goals
Shimizu S-pulse 1.33 – 1.49 Yokohama F. Marinos
Shimizu S-pulse 32%
· draw 28%
· Yokohama F. Marinos 41%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 31.8% | 39.2% | 2.41 | -7.5pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.1% | 3.31 | -0.5pp |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 40.6% | 32.7% | 2.87 | +7.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 37.7% | 2.51 | +39.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 62.3% | 1.52 | -39.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 27.3% | 3.82 | +26.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | 72.7% | 1.43 | -26.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 16.0% | 6.28 | +16.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.0% | 84.0% | 1.20 | -16.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.3% | 23.7% | 4.47 | +31.6pp |
| BTTS No | 44.7% | 76.3% | 1.39 | -31.6pp |
Shimizu S-pul… or draw
59%
draw or Yokohama F. M…
68%
Shimizu S-pul… clean sheet
23%
Yokohama F. M… clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Shimizu S-pul… win + Shimizu S-pul… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
- Yokohama F. M… win + Yokohama F. M… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.01); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +87%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.33); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Kawasaki Frontale HOME
v Kyoto Sanga AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Kawasaki Frontale 1.84 – 1.42 Kyoto Sanga
Kawasaki Frontale 45%
· draw 22%
· Kyoto Sanga 32%
Kawasaki Fron… or draw
68%
Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet
24%
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 7% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- Kyoto Sanga win + Kyoto Sanga clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.58); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +149%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.79); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +99%
- Kawasaki Fron… win + Kawasaki Fron… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.01); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.77); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
Urawa HOME
v Sanfrecce Hiroshima AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Urawa 1.05 – 1.07 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Urawa 31%
· draw 27%
· Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Urawa | 30.6% | 23.8% | 3.84 | +6.7pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.6% | 3.47 | +0.2pp |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 42.7% | 49.5% | 1.92 | -6.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 62.5% | 40.0% | 2.36 | +22.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 37.5% | 60.0% | 1.57 | -22.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 36.1% | 26.5% | 3.86 | +9.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 73.5% | 1.40 | -9.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 7.39 | +3.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 82.6% | 86.3% | 1.17 | -3.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.2% | 35.0% | 2.79 | +10.2pp |
| BTTS No | 54.8% | 65.0% | 1.50 | -10.2pp |
draw or Sanfrecce Hir…
69%
Sanfrecce Hir… clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12% · 1–0 12%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +90%
- Urawa win + Urawa clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.60); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +86%
- Sanfrecce Hir… win + Sanfrecce Hir… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.45); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 50% (fair 1.98); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +38%
Vissel Kobe HOME
v FC Tokyo AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Vissel Kobe 1.53 – 0.85 FC Tokyo
Vissel Kobe 54%
· draw 27%
· FC Tokyo 19%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 54.0% | 41.1% | 2.30 | +12.9pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.2% | 3.18 | -2.2pp |
| FC Tokyo | 19.0% | 29.7% | 3.13 | -10.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 68.5% | 36.4% | 2.59 | +32.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 31.5% | 63.6% | 1.48 | -32.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 23.2% | 4.35 | +19.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 76.8% | 1.32 | -19.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 8.27 | +10.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 77.4% | 88.0% | 1.13 | -10.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 46.8% | 33.2% | 2.94 | +13.5pp |
| BTTS No | 53.2% | 66.8% | 1.46 | -13.5pp |
Vissel Kobe clean sheet
43%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 11% · 0–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- FC Tokyo win + FC Tokyo clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.37); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +169%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.05); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +70%
- Vissel Kobe win + Vissel Kobe clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.04); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +46%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.48); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +44%
Avispa Fukuoka HOME
v Cerezo Osaka AWAY
10:00 · J1 · expected goals
Avispa Fukuoka 1.15 – 1.02 Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka 34%
· draw 30%
· Cerezo Osaka 35%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 34.2% | 35.4% | 2.66 | -1.2pp |
| Draw | 30.5% | 28.6% | 3.27 | +1.9pp |
| Cerezo Osaka | 35.3% | 36.1% | 2.62 | -0.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 63.6% | 36.8% | 2.56 | +26.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 36.4% | 63.2% | 1.49 | -26.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 37.3% | 26.3% | 3.94 | +11.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 73.7% | 1.40 | -11.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 14.9% | 6.77 | +3.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 85.1% | 1.18 | -3.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.8% | 32.8% | 2.93 | +13.1pp |
| BTTS No | 54.2% | 67.2% | 1.43 | -13.1pp |
Avispa Fukuoka or draw
65%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet
36%
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
- Cerezo Osaka win + Cerezo Osaka clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +97%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- Avispa Fukuoka win + Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +75%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 49% (fair 2.03); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +39%