Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SP2 Segunda División (Spain) · 10 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Cordoba HOME
v Girona AWAY
19:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Cordoba 1.31 – 1.50 Girona
Cordoba 38%
· draw 25%
· Girona 38%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Cordoba | Draw | Girona |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.1% | — | — | 40.4% | — | — | 32.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 29.5% | — | — | 34.8% | — | — | 35.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Cordoba win + Cordoba clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.30); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +118%
- Girona win + Girona clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.84); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +84%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.89); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +72%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.36); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Oviedo HOME
v Leganes AWAY
15:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Oviedo 1.13 – 0.85 Leganes
Oviedo 43%
· draw 29%
· Leganes 27%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 11%
Half-time markets
| Oviedo | Draw | Leganes |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.6% | — | — | 49.3% | — | — | 21.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.3% | — | — | 43.1% | — | — | 23.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Leganes win + Leganes clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.49); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +107%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.92); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +105%
- Oviedo win + Oviedo clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.53); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +61%
- Oviedo win + Over 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.72); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +33%
AD Ceuta FC HOME
v Las Palmas AWAY
17:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
AD Ceuta FC 1.15 – 1.28 Las Palmas
AD Ceuta FC 28%
· draw 26%
· Las Palmas 47%
AD Ceuta FC clean sheet
28%
Las Palmas clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.1% | — | — | 44.0% | — | — | 29.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.8% | — | — | 38.1% | — | — | 33.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- AD Ceuta FC win + AD Ceuta FC clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +104%
- Las Palmas win + Las Palmas clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.47); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +82%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.34); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Albacete HOME
v Real Sociedad II AWAY
17:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Albacete 1.63 – 1.09 Real Sociedad II
Albacete 51%
· draw 26%
· Real Sociedad II 23%
draw or Real Sociedad…
49%
Real Sociedad… clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Albacete | Draw | Real Sociedad II |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.3% | — | — | 40.7% | — | — | 22.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 41.3% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — | 23.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Real Sociedad… win + Real Sociedad… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.94); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +158%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- Albacete win + Albacete clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.75); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +60%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.26); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Eldense HOME
v Cadiz AWAY
19:30 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Eldense 1.27 – 1.07 Cadiz
Eldense 39%
· draw 32%
· Cadiz 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 10% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Eldense | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.5% | — | — | 44.9% | — | — | 24.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.9% | — | — | 39.0% | — | — | 27.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Cadiz win + Cadiz clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.55); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +109%
- Eldense win + Eldense clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +75%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +72%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.23); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +47%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Eibar HOME
v Valladolid AWAY
15:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Eibar 1.53 – 0.76 Valladolid
Eibar 56%
· draw 25%
· Valladolid 19%
Valladolid clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 12% · 0–0 11%
Half-time markets
| Eibar | Draw | Valladolid |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.1% | — | — | 44.5% | — | — | 16.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 44.0% | — | — | 38.3% | — | — | 17.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Valladolid win + Valladolid clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.97); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +183%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +78%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.40); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +42%
- Eibar win + Eibar clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.75); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +40%
Sporting Gijon HOME
v Burgos AWAY
17:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Sporting Gijon 1.13 – 0.93 Burgos
Sporting Gijon 37%
· draw 29%
· Burgos 34%
Sporting Gijon or draw
66%
Sporting Gijon clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 11%
Half-time markets
| Sporting Gijon | Draw | Burgos |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.0% | — | — | 48.2% | — | — | 22.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.5% | — | — | 42.1% | — | — | 25.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Burgos win + Burgos clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.24); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +95%
- Sporting Gijon win + Sporting Gijon clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.81); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +68%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.92); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%
Castellón HOME
v Sabadell AWAY
17:00 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Castellón 1.74 – 1.17 Sabadell
Castellón 56%
· draw 23%
· Sabadell 21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Castellón | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.3% | — | — | 39.1% | — | — | 22.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.2% | — | — | 33.4% | — | — | 24.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Sabadell win + Sabadell clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.51); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +165%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.03); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +73%
- Castellón win + Castellón clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.96); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +61%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.79); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
Tenerife HOME
v Almeria AWAY
19:30 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Tenerife 1.19 – 1.36 Almeria
Tenerife 26%
· draw 29%
· Almeria 45%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 9%
Half-time markets
| Tenerife | Draw | Almeria |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.1% | — | — | 42.9% | — | — | 31.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.7% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — | 34.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Tenerife win + Tenerife clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +110%
- Almeria win + Almeria clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.50); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +81%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.57); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.48); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Granada CF HOME
v Mallorca AWAY
19:30 ·
SP2 · expected goals
Granada CF 1.19 – 1.20 Mallorca
Granada CF 36%
· draw 29%
· Mallorca 35%
Granada CF clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Granada CF | Draw | Mallorca |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.5% | — | — | 44.5% | — | — | 27.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.5% | — | — | 38.6% | — | — | 30.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Granada CF win + Granada CF clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.88); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +93%
- Mallorca win + Mallorca clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.79); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.82); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.29); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +50%