Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
P1 Primeira Liga (Portugal) · 7 fixtures across 3 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Maritimo HOME
v Academico Viseu AWAY
14:30 ·
P1 · expected goals
Maritimo 1.40 – 1.12 Academico Viseu
Maritimo 43%
· draw 28%
· Academico Viseu 29%
draw or Academico Vis…
57%
Academico Vis… clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Maritimo | Draw | Academico Viseu |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.6% | — | — | 43.0% | — | — | 24.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.2% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — | 26.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Academico Vis… win + Academico Vis… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +122%
- Maritimo win + Maritimo clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.13); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Estoril HOME
v Rio Ave AWAY
17:00 ·
P1 · expected goals
Estoril 1.85 – 1.17 Rio Ave
Estoril 47%
· draw 25%
· Rio Ave 28%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Estoril | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 40.2% | — | — | 38.0% | — | — | 21.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 44.3% | — | — | 32.4% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Rio Ave win + Rio Ave clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.51); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +182%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.23); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +78%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Estoril win + Estoril clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +57%
Sporting CP HOME
v Alverca AWAY
19:30 ·
P1 · expected goals
Sporting CP 2.77 – 0.71 Alverca
Sporting CP 79%
· draw 14%
· Alverca 7%
Sporting CP clean sheet
49%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 12% · 3–0 11% · 2–1 8% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Sporting CP | Draw | Alverca |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 60.3% | — | — | 30.0% | — | — | 9.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 66.4% | — | — | 24.0% | — | — | 9.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.82); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +55%
- draw or Alverca + Under 3.5 — 15% (fair 6.81); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +35%
- Draw + Under 4.5 — 13% (fair 7.97); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +29%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.40); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +29%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Vitória SC HOME
v Nacional AWAY
14:30 ·
P1 · expected goals
Vitória SC 1.55 – 0.99 Nacional
Vitória SC 47%
· draw 26%
· Nacional 27%
Vitória SC clean sheet
37%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 9% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Vitória SC | Draw | Nacional |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.9% | — | — | 42.4% | — | — | 20.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 41.1% | — | — | 36.5% | — | — | 22.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Nacional win + Nacional clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.73); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +157%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +61%
- Vitória SC win + Vitória SC clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.46); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Santa Clara HOME
v Famalicao AWAY
17:00 ·
P1 · expected goals
Santa Clara 0.96 – 0.94 Famalicao
Santa Clara 30%
· draw 29%
· Famalicao 41%
Santa Clara clean sheet
39%
Likeliest scores: 0–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 1–0 14% · 0–1 14%
Half-time markets
| Santa Clara | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.0% | — | — | 50.6% | — | — | 24.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.2% | — | — | 44.4% | — | — | 27.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.15); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +114%
- Famalicao win + Famalicao clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.37); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +81%
- Santa Clara win + Santa Clara clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.22); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
- Santa Clara win + Over 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.48); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +32%
FC Porto HOME
v Arouca AWAY
19:30 ·
P1 · expected goals
FC Porto 2.39 – 0.72 Arouca
FC Porto 75%
· draw 15%
· Arouca 10%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 10% · 3–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| FC Porto | Draw | Arouca |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 54.8% | — | — | 34.0% | — | — | 11.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 60.7% | — | — | 27.8% | — | — | 11.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.90); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +90%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.11); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +50%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +38%
- draw or Arouca + Under 3.5 — 20% (fair 5.05); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +23%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
GIL Vicente HOME
v Casa Pia AWAY
19:15 ·
P1 · expected goals
GIL Vicente 1.45 – 0.89 Casa Pia
GIL Vicente 49%
· draw 27%
· Casa Pia 25%
GIL Vicente clean sheet
41%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| GIL Vicente | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.0% | — | — | 44.4% | — | — | 19.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 40.4% | — | — | 38.3% | — | — | 21.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Casa Pia win + Casa Pia clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.45); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +152%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.05); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +73%
- GIL Vicente win + GIL Vicente clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.23); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.19); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +43%