Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
N2 Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · 10 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Vitesse HOME
v Almere City FC AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Vitesse 1.67 – 1.43 Almere City FC
Vitesse 42%
· draw 27%
· Almere City FC 31%
draw or Almere City FC
58%
Almere City FC clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%
Half-time markets
| Vitesse | Draw | Almere City FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.2% | — | — | 38.0% | — | — | 27.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.3% | — | — | 32.6% | — | — | 30.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Almere City FC win + Almere City FC clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.13); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +127%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.44); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
- Vitesse win + Vitesse clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.25); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +86%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.25); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
Den Bosch HOME
v FC Eindhoven AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Den Bosch 1.73 – 1.36 FC Eindhoven
Den Bosch 43%
· draw 26%
· FC Eindhoven 31%
FC Eindhoven clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Den Bosch | Draw | FC Eindhoven |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 35.9% | — | — | 38.0% | — | — | 26.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 39.4% | — | — | 32.6% | — | — | 28.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC Eindhoven win + FC Eindhoven clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.76); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +141%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.41); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +88%
- Den Bosch win + Den Bosch clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.82); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.25); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
Dordrecht HOME
v Roda AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Dordrecht 1.50 – 1.22 Roda
Dordrecht 43%
· draw 24%
· Roda 33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Dordrecht | Draw | Roda |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.3% | — | — | 41.1% | — | — | 25.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.8% | — | — | 35.4% | — | — | 27.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Roda win + Roda clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.50); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +125%
- Dordrecht win + Dordrecht clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.44); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Emmen HOME
v Jong AZ AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Emmen 1.91 – 1.52 Jong AZ
Emmen 44%
· draw 26%
· Jong AZ 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 7% · 2–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Emmen | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.3% | — | — | 35.5% | — | — | 27.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 40.6% | — | — | 30.4% | — | — | 29.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Jong AZ win + Jong AZ clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.89); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +148%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.24); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +115%
- Emmen win + Emmen clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.48); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.58); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +75%
Helmond Sport HOME
v Waalwijk AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Helmond Sport 1.30 – 1.55 Waalwijk
Helmond Sport 28%
· draw 29%
· Waalwijk 43%
Helmond Sport clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Helmond Sport | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.4% | — | — | 40.0% | — | — | 33.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.7% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Helmond Sport win + Helmond Sport clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.68); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +125%
- Waalwijk win + Waalwijk clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.72); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +80%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.97); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.50); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%
MVV HOME
v FC Volendam AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
MVV 1.28 – 1.67 FC Volendam
MVV 26%
· draw 29%
· FC Volendam 45%
FC Volendam clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 0–2 7%
Half-time markets
| MVV | Draw | FC Volendam |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.2% | — | — | 39.0% | — | — | 35.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 27.2% | — | — | 33.4% | — | — | 39.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- MVV win + MVV clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.55); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +142%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.15); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
- FC Volendam win + FC Volendam clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.52); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.85); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
NAC Breda HOME
v Jong Ajax AWAY
14:30 ·
N2 · expected goals
NAC Breda 1.86 – 1.01 Jong Ajax
NAC Breda 55%
· draw 24%
· Jong Ajax 21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
| NAC Breda | Draw | Jong Ajax |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.3% | — | — | 38.7% | — | — | 18.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 46.9% | — | — | 32.9% | — | — | 20.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.91); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
- NAC Breda win + NAC Breda clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.28); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +47%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +46%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
VVV Venlo HOME
v De Graafschap AWAY
14:45 ·
N2 · expected goals
VVV Venlo 1.39 – 1.63 De Graafschap
VVV Venlo 28%
· draw 25%
· De Graafschap 47%
De Graafschap clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| VVV Venlo | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.5% | — | — | 38.6% | — | — | 33.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 29.7% | — | — | 33.1% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- VVV Venlo win + VVV Venlo clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.95); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +126%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.28); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +85%
- De Graafschap win + De Graafschap clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.09); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.00); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +61%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Jong PSV U21 HOME
v FC OSS AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Jong PSV U21 1.91 – 1.30 FC OSS
Jong PSV U21 44%
· draw 26%
· FC OSS 31%
Jong PSV U21 clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 7% · 2–0 7%
Half-time markets
| Jong PSV U21 | Draw | FC OSS |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.6% | — | — | 36.7% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.4% | — | — | 31.3% | — | — | 25.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC OSS win + FC OSS clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.52); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +173%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.65); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +93%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.80); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
- Jong PSV U21 win + Jong PSV U21 clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.39); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +64%
Jong Utrecht HOME
v Heracles AWAY
18:00 ·
N2 · expected goals
Jong Utrecht 1.43 – 1.57 Heracles
Jong Utrecht 42%
· draw 23%
· Heracles 35%
Jong Utrecht clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
| Jong Utrecht | Draw | Heracles |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.6% | — | — | 38.9% | — | — | 32.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.1% | — | — | 33.4% | — | — | 35.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Jong Utrecht win + Jong Utrecht clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.47); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +116%
- Heracles win + Heracles clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.36); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +91%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.24); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.91); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%