Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
P2 Liga Portugal 2 (Portugal) · 8 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Benfica B HOME
v Portimonense AWAY
17:00 ·
P2 · expected goals
Benfica B 1.84 – 1.12 Portimonense
Benfica B 49%
· draw 27%
· Portimonense 23%
Portimonense clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Benfica B | Draw | Portimonense |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 40.6% | — | — | 38.4% | — | — | 21.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 44.9% | — | — | 32.7% | — | — | 22.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Portimonense win + Portimonense clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.64); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +188%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.09); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.02); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
- Benfica B win + Benfica B clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.68); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +54%
Tondela HOME
v Academica AWAY
19:15 ·
P2 · expected goals
Tondela 1.46 – 1.13 Academica
Tondela 49%
· draw 26%
· Academica 25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Tondela | Draw | Academica |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.5% | — | — | 42.2% | — | — | 24.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.1% | — | — | 36.4% | — | — | 26.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Academica win + Academica clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.51); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +128%
- Tondela win + Tondela clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.12); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +71%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +59%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Leixoes HOME
v União de Leiria AWAY
10:00 ·
P2 · expected goals
Leixoes 1.47 – 1.51 União de Leiria
Leixoes 39%
· draw 27%
· União de Leiria 34%
draw or União de Leir…
61%
União de Leir… clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
| Leixoes | Draw | União de Leiria |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.0% | — | — | 39.0% | — | — | 31.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.6% | — | — | 33.5% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Leixoes win + Leixoes clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.00); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
- União de Leir… win + União de Leir… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.70); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +99%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.21); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +83%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.85); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Lusitânia Lourosa HOME
v Torreense AWAY
17:00 ·
P2 · expected goals
Lusitânia Lourosa 1.32 – 1.42 Torreense
Lusitânia Lourosa 32%
· draw 28%
· Torreense 41%
Lusitânia Lou… or draw
59%
Lusitânia Lou… clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | Torreense |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.1% | — | — | 41.1% | — | — | 30.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.7% | — | — | 35.4% | — | — | 33.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lusitânia Lou… win + Lusitânia Lou… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.76); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
- Torreense win + Torreense clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.04); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +90%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.16); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Chaves HOME
v AVS AWAY
10:00 ·
P2 · expected goals
Chaves 1.54 – 0.99 AVS
Chaves 46%
· draw 30%
· AVS 25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 9% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Chaves | Draw | AVS |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.6% | — | — | 42.6% | — | — | 20.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 40.8% | — | — | 36.6% | — | — | 22.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- AVS win + AVS clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.62); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +154%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.69); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +61%
- Chaves win + Chaves clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.48); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +52%
Penafiel HOME
v Sporting CP B AWAY
13:00 ·
P2 · expected goals
Penafiel 1.15 – 1.06 Sporting CP B
Penafiel 43%
· draw 29%
· Sporting CP B 28%
Sporting CP B clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 11%
Half-time markets
| Penafiel | Draw | Sporting CP B |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.1% | — | — | 46.5% | — | — | 25.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.3% | — | — | 40.5% | — | — | 28.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Sporting CP B win + Sporting CP B clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.93); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +82%
- Penafiel win + Penafiel clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +80%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.08); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +42%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Farense HOME
v Felgueiras 1932 AWAY
17:00 ·
P2 · expected goals
Farense 1.09 – 0.88 Felgueiras 1932
Farense 42%
· draw 31%
· Felgueiras 1932 27%
draw or Felgueiras 19…
58%
Felgueiras 19… clean sheet
34%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–1 12%
Half-time markets
| Farense | Draw | Felgueiras 1932 |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.5% | — | — | 49.4% | — | — | 22.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.1% | — | — | 43.3% | — | — | 24.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.91); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +105%
- Felgueiras 19… win + Felgueiras 19… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.19); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
- Farense win + Farense clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.70); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +65%
- Farense win + Over 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.02); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +33%
Feirense HOME
v FC Porto B AWAY
19:15 ·
P2 · expected goals
Feirense 1.33 – 1.08 FC Porto B
Feirense 41%
· draw 30%
· FC Porto B 30%
FC Porto B clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Feirense | Draw | FC Porto B |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.6% | — | — | 44.1% | — | — | 24.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.1% | — | — | 38.2% | — | — | 26.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC Porto B win + FC Porto B clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.87); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +116%
- Feirense win + Feirense clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.08); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.31); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +50%