Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
BEL1 10 fixtures across 3 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | Totals | Over3.5 | 38.4% | 2.61 | 7.28 | +179.6% | 3.00% |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | BTTS | Yes— | 54.3% | 1.84 | 4.96 | +169.5% | — |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 8.00 | +167.4% | 3.00% |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 7.08 | +165.7% | 3.00% |
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | BTTS | Yes— | 56.3% | 1.78 | 4.61 | +159.4% | — |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 7.05 | +157.9% | 3.00% |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 9.46 | +156.9% | 3.00% |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 10.06 | +149.7% | 3.00% |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 8.50 | +148.0% | 3.00% |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 7.03 | +147.9% | 3.00% |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | BTTS | Yes— | 56.1% | 1.78 | 3.94 | +121.3% | — |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 6.59 | +119.8% | 3.00% |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | 4.81 | +118.6% | 3.00% |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 4.33 | +108.6% | 3.00% |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 3.71 | +103.6% | — |
| CharleroivOH Leuven | Totals | Over3.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | 8.71 | +102.3% | 3.00% |
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | Totals | Over2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 3.33 | +99.1% | — |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 3.91 | +96.8% | 3.00% |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | 3.39 | +96.8% | — |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Totals | Over2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | 3.29 | +93.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Antwerp H | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.85 | +14.7% | 3.00% |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Genk A | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.16 | +3.7% | — |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.48 | +2.8% | — |
| CharleroivOH Leuven | OH Leuven A | 22.7% | 4.40 | 4.38 | -0.5% | — |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Anderlecht H | 57.3% | 1.74 | 1.72 | -1.2% | — |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | RAAL La Louvière A | 20.2% | 4.94 | 4.68 | -5.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 8.00 | +167.4% | 3.00% |
| Zulte WaregemvGenk | Totals | Over3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 7.05 | +157.9% | 3.00% |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over3.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 9.46 | +156.9% | 3.00% |
| AnderlechtvRAAL La Louvière | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 8.50 | +148.0% | 3.00% |
| AntwerpvSK Beveren | Totals | Over2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 4.33 | +108.6% | 3.00% |
| GentvKV Mechelen | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 3.71 | +103.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Gent HOME
v KV Mechelen AWAY
11:30 · BEL1 · expected goals
Gent 1.69 – 1.19 KV Mechelen
Gent 46%
· draw 30%
· KV Mechelen 25%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Gent | 45.9% | 48.6% | 1.95 | -2.7pp |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | 3.48 | +3.2pp |
| KV Mechelen | 24.5% | 25.0% | 3.66 | -0.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 41.5% | 2.27 | +36.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 58.5% | 1.61 | -36.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 27.4% | 3.71 | +27.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | 72.6% | 1.40 | -27.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.4% | 12.7% | 8.00 | +20.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.6% | 87.3% | 1.16 | -20.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.2% | 31.5% | 3.37 | +23.7pp |
| BTTS No | 44.8% | 68.5% | 1.55 | -23.7pp |
KV Mechelen clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- KV Mechelen win + KV Mechelen clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.10); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +154%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.02); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +73%
- Gent win + Gent clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.12); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Charleroi HOME
v OH Leuven AWAY
14:00 · BEL1 · expected goals
Charleroi 1.49 – 0.92 OH Leuven
Charleroi 51%
· draw 26%
· OH Leuven 23%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Charleroi | 51.5% | 53.5% | 1.78 | -2.0pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | 3.55 | -0.1pp |
| OH Leuven | 22.7% | 20.6% | 4.38 | +2.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 69.1% | 39.4% | 2.38 | +29.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 30.9% | 60.6% | 1.55 | -29.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 25.0% | 4.06 | +18.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 75.0% | 1.35 | -18.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 8.71 | +11.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 76.8% | 88.4% | 1.14 | -11.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.9% | 34.1% | 2.87 | +13.8pp |
| BTTS No | 52.1% | 65.9% | 1.48 | -13.8pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10% · 0–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- OH Leuven win + OH Leuven clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.71); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +155%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +68%
- Charleroi win + Charleroi clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.28); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +52%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.28); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +46%
Zulte Waregem HOME
v Genk AWAY
14:00 · BEL1 · expected goals
Zulte Waregem 1.42 – 1.62 Genk
Zulte Waregem 26%
· draw 26%
· Genk 48%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Zulte Waregem | 26.1% | 30.2% | 3.07 | -4.1pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.2% | 3.50 | -0.4pp |
| Genk | 48.0% | 43.6% | 2.16 | +4.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 44.6% | 2.11 | +35.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 55.4% | 1.70 | -35.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 30.3% | 3.39 | +27.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | 69.7% | 1.47 | -27.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 36.6% | 14.5% | 7.05 | +22.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.4% | 85.5% | 1.20 | -22.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.9% | 34.7% | 3.10 | +23.2pp |
| BTTS No | 42.1% | 65.3% | 1.65 | -23.2pp |
Zulte Waregem clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Zulte Waregem win + Zulte Waregem clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.85); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +121%
- Genk win + Genk clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.28); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +87%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.96); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Anderlecht HOME
v RAAL La Louvière AWAY
16:30 · BEL1 · expected goals
Anderlecht 1.80 – 0.89 RAAL La Louvière
Anderlecht 57%
· draw 22%
· RAAL La Louvière 20%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anderlecht | 57.3% | 55.3% | 1.72 | +2.0pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.4% | 3.62 | -3.0pp |
| RAAL La Louvière | 20.2% | 19.3% | 4.68 | +1.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 40.3% | 2.33 | +34.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.5% | 59.7% | 1.58 | -34.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 26.0% | 3.91 | +24.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 74.0% | 1.37 | -24.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.2% | 11.9% | 8.50 | +17.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.8% | 88.1% | 1.15 | -17.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.7% | 34.6% | 2.83 | +15.1pp |
| BTTS No | 50.3% | 65.4% | 1.50 | -15.1pp |
draw or RAAL La Louvi…
43%
Anderlecht clean sheet
41%
RAAL La Louvi… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.39); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +53%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +53%
- Anderlecht win + Anderlecht clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +41%
Antwerp HOME
v SK Beveren AWAY
17:15 · BEL1 · expected goals
Antwerp 1.61 – 0.99 SK Beveren
Antwerp 62%
· draw 22%
· SK Beveren 16%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Antwerp | 62.1% | 51.4% | 1.85 | +10.7pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 26.6% | 3.46 | -4.4pp |
| SK Beveren | 15.7% | 22.0% | 4.12 | -6.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 37.9% | 2.48 | +35.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 62.1% | 1.51 | -35.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 23.3% | 4.33 | +24.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 76.7% | 1.31 | -24.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 27.2% | 10.6% | 9.46 | +16.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 72.8% | 89.4% | 1.12 | -16.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.5% | 32.6% | 3.00 | +17.9pp |
| BTTS No | 49.5% | 67.4% | 1.45 | -17.9pp |
SK Beveren clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- SK Beveren win + SK Beveren clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.30); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +165%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.53); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +55%
- Antwerp win + Antwerp clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.41); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +53%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | St. Truiden A | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.95 | +16.1% | 2.07% |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | Draw | 24.8% | 4.03 | 3.54 | -12.3% | — |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | Cercle Brugge H | 35.8% | 2.79 | 2.24 | -19.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | BTTS | Yes— | 56.1% | 1.78 | 3.94 | +121.3% | — |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 6.59 | +119.8% | 3.00% |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | 3.18 | +74.1% | 3.00% |
| Cercle BruggevSt. Truiden | Totals | Over1.5 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 2.22 | +72.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Cercle Brugge HOME
v St. Truiden AWAY
18:45 · BEL1 · expected goals
Cercle Brugge 1.51 – 1.37 St. Truiden
Cercle Brugge 36%
· draw 25%
· St. Truiden 39%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Cercle Brugge | 35.8% | 42.2% | 2.24 | -6.4pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 26.1% | 3.54 | -1.3pp |
| St. Truiden | 39.4% | 31.6% | 2.95 | +7.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 42.5% | 2.22 | +35.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.2% | 57.5% | 1.64 | -35.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 33.3% | 3.18 | +21.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | 66.7% | 1.58 | -21.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.3% | 15.9% | 6.59 | +17.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.7% | 84.1% | 1.25 | -17.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.1% | 27.4% | 3.94 | +28.8pp |
| BTTS No | 43.9% | 72.6% | 1.49 | -28.8pp |
Cercle Brugge clean sheet
25%
St. Truiden clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- St. Truiden win + St. Truiden clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.27); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +113%
- Cercle Brugge win + Cercle Brugge clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.18); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +89%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.04); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +77%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.50); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Antwerp A | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.60 | +15.1% | 2.37% |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Club Brugge KV A | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.49 | +2.0% | — |
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | Genk H | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.62 | +1.6% | — |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise H | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.34 | -2.7% | — |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Draw | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.31 | -5.1% | — |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Draw | 17.4% | 5.76 | 4.90 | -14.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | Totals | Over3.5 | 38.4% | 2.61 | 7.28 | +179.6% | 3.00% |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | BTTS | Yes— | 54.3% | 1.84 | 4.96 | +169.5% | — |
| OH LeuvenvClub Brugge KV | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 7.08 | +165.7% | 3.00% |
| GenkvKVC Westerlo | BTTS | Yes— | 56.3% | 1.78 | 4.61 | +159.4% | — |
| KortrijkvAntwerp | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 10.06 | +149.7% | 3.00% |
| Union St. GilloisevZulte Waregem | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 7.03 | +147.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Union St. Gilloise HOME
v Zulte Waregem AWAY
14:00 · BEL1 · expected goals
Union St. Gilloise 2.15 – 0.82 Zulte Waregem
Union St. Gilloise 73%
· draw 17%
· Zulte Waregem 10%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 72.8% | 72.0% | 1.34 | +0.8pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 18.4% | 4.90 | -1.1pp |
| Zulte Waregem | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.81 | +0.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 46.1% | 2.05 | +33.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 53.9% | 1.75 | -33.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 32.9% | 3.04 | +23.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | 67.1% | 1.49 | -23.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 15.0% | 7.03 | +20.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 85.0% | 1.24 | -20.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.9% | 27.0% | 3.43 | +22.9pp |
| BTTS No | 50.1% | 73.0% | 1.27 | -22.9pp |
Union St. Gil… or draw
90%
Union St. Gil… clean sheet
44%
Zulte Waregem clean sheet
12%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.70); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.98); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +42%
- Union St. Gil… win + Union St. Gil… clean sheet — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +30%
Kortrijk HOME
v Antwerp AWAY
16:15 · BEL1 · expected goals
Kortrijk 1.11 – 1.38 Antwerp
Kortrijk 27%
· draw 29%
· Antwerp 44%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kortrijk | 27.0% | 35.8% | 2.62 | -8.8pp |
| Draw | 28.7% | 28.0% | 3.31 | +0.7pp |
| Antwerp | 44.3% | 36.2% | 2.60 | +8.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 37.5% | 2.51 | +33.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 62.5% | 1.51 | -33.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 20.5% | 4.81 | +24.9pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 79.5% | 1.24 | -24.9pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 10.06 | +14.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | 90.1% | 1.10 | -14.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.4% | 27.3% | 3.39 | +23.1pp |
| BTTS No | 49.6% | 72.7% | 1.27 | -23.1pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 0–0 9% · 1–2 9%
Correlated combinations
- Kortrijk win + Kortrijk clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.14); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +119%
- Antwerp win + Antwerp clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.13); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Genk HOME
v KVC Westerlo AWAY
18:45 · BEL1 · expected goals
Genk 1.99 – 1.13 KVC Westerlo
Genk 63%
· draw 20%
· KVC Westerlo 17%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Genk | 62.8% | 59.0% | 1.62 | +3.8pp |
| Draw | 20.2% | 22.3% | 4.09 | -2.1pp |
| KVC Westerlo | 17.0% | 18.7% | 4.82 | -1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 48.4% | 1.95 | +32.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.8% | 51.6% | 1.83 | -32.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 30.7% | 3.33 | +29.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | 69.3% | 1.47 | -29.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 38.4% | 14.4% | 7.28 | +23.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 61.6% | 85.6% | 1.23 | -23.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.3% | 22.1% | 4.61 | +34.2pp |
| BTTS No | 43.7% | 77.9% | 1.30 | -34.2pp |
KVC Westerlo clean sheet
14%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.40); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.57); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +71%
- Genk win + Genk clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.65); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +50%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.06); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +37%
OH Leuven HOME
v Club Brugge KV AWAY
18:45 · BEL1 · expected goals
OH Leuven 1.02 – 2.06 Club Brugge KV
OH Leuven 14%
· draw 18%
· Club Brugge KV 68%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| OH Leuven | 13.7% | 14.9% | 5.95 | -1.1pp |
| Draw | 18.0% | 21.0% | 4.34 | -3.0pp |
| Club Brugge KV | 68.3% | 64.1% | 1.49 | +4.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | 48.6% | 1.94 | +32.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.3% | 51.4% | 1.84 | -32.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 31.0% | 3.29 | +28.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 69.0% | 1.48 | -28.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 14.8% | 7.08 | +22.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 85.2% | 1.23 | -22.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.3% | 20.5% | 4.96 | +33.8pp |
| BTTS No | 45.7% | 79.5% | 1.28 | -33.8pp |
draw or Club Brugge KV
86%
Club Brugge KV clean sheet
36%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 10% · 0–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.63); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.27); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +71%
- Club Brugge KV win + Club Brugge KV clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.21); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +41%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.17); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +38%