Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
BEL1 Belgian Pro League (Belgium) · 6 fixtures across 3 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Standard Liege HOME
v RAAL La Louvière AWAY
18:45 ·
BEL1 · expected goals
Standard Liege 1.25 – 0.86 RAAL La Louvière
Standard Liege 51%
· draw 28%
· RAAL La Louvière 21%
Standard Liege or draw
79%
draw or RAAL La Louvi…
49%
Standard Liege clean sheet
42%
RAAL La Louvi… clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Standard Liege | Draw | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.2% | — | — | 47.5% | — | — | 20.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.3% | — | — | 41.3% | — | — | 22.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- RAAL La Louvi… win + RAAL La Louvi… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +124%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.56); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +92%
- Standard Liege win + Standard Liege clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 51% (fair 1.95); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +36%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Zulte Waregem HOME
v SK Beveren AWAY
14:00 ·
BEL1 · expected goals
Zulte Waregem 1.86 – 1.27 SK Beveren
Zulte Waregem 67%
· draw 16%
· SK Beveren 17%
Zulte Waregem clean sheet
28%
SK Beveren clean sheet
15%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Zulte Waregem | Draw | SK Beveren |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.3% | — | — | 37.3% | — | — | 23.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.2% | — | — | 31.8% | — | — | 24.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- SK Beveren win + SK Beveren clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.26); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +172%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.47); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +87%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%
- Zulte Waregem win + Zulte Waregem clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.26); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +63%
Charleroi HOME
v KV Mechelen AWAY
16:15 ·
BEL1 · expected goals
Charleroi 1.56 – 1.13 KV Mechelen
Charleroi 50%
· draw 27%
· KV Mechelen 23%
KV Mechelen clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Charleroi | Draw | KV Mechelen |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 35.4% | — | — | 41.2% | — | — | 23.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 39.2% | — | — | 35.4% | — | — | 25.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- KV Mechelen win + KV Mechelen clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.21); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +142%
- Charleroi win + Charleroi clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.00); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +66%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.69); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.40); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Antwerp HOME
v Genk AWAY
18:45 ·
BEL1 · expected goals
Antwerp 1.28 – 1.24 Genk
Antwerp 35%
· draw 29%
· Genk 36%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Antwerp | Draw | Genk |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.9% | — | — | 43.2% | — | — | 27.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.9% | — | — | 37.4% | — | — | 30.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Genk win + Genk clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.14); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +97%
- Antwerp win + Antwerp clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.90); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +62%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.45); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Lommel United HOME
v KVC Westerlo AWAY
14:00 ·
BEL1 · expected goals
Lommel United 1.97 – 1.26 KVC Westerlo
Thin data: Lommel United 8 matches, KVC Westerlo 160 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Lommel United 46%
· draw 26%
· KVC Westerlo 28%
Lommel United clean sheet
28%
KVC Westerlo clean sheet
14%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 8% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Lommel United | Draw | KVC Westerlo |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 41.2% | — | — | 36.4% | — | — | 22.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 45.2% | — | — | 31.0% | — | — | 23.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.66); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +91%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 6.92); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +71%
- Lommel United win + Lommel United clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 39%, off by +34%
Club Brugge KV HOME
v Cercle Brugge AWAY
16:30 ·
BEL1 · expected goals
Club Brugge KV 2.74 – 1.03 Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV 74%
· draw 17%
· Cercle Brugge 9%
Club Brugge KV or draw
91%
Club Brugge KV clean sheet
36%
Cercle Brugge clean sheet
6%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 2–0 9% · 3–1 8% · 3–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Club Brugge KV | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 55.7% | — | — | 30.2% | — | — | 14.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 61.0% | — | — | 24.8% | — | — | 14.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.81); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
- Draw + Under 4.5 — 14% (fair 7.22); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +32%
- Club Brugge KV win + Club Brugge KV clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.00); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +27%
- draw or Cercle Brugge + Under 3.5 — 16% (fair 6.09); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +27%