Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
E0 Premier League (England) · 10 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Arsenal HOME
v Coventry AWAY
19:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Arsenal 2.49 – 0.65 Coventry
Arsenal 72%
· draw 17%
· Coventry 10%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 3–0 11% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Arsenal | Draw | Coventry |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 57.3% | — | — | 32.9% | — | — | 9.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 63.5% | — | — | 26.7% | — | — | 9.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 12% (fair 8.48); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +98%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.11); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +46%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +38%
- draw or Coventry + Under 3.5 — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +28%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Hull City HOME
v Manchester United AWAY
11:30 ·
E0 · expected goals
Hull City 1.06 – 2.03 Manchester United
Hull City 18%
· draw 25%
· Manchester United 57%
draw or Manchester Un…
82%
Manchester Un… clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Hull City | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 18.7% | — | — | 36.7% | — | — | 44.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 19.7% | — | — | 31.1% | — | — | 49.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.68); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +71%
- Manchester Un… win + Manchester Un… clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +45%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.13); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +38%
Everton HOME
v Crystal Palace AWAY
14:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Everton 1.22 – 1.06 Crystal Palace
Everton 38%
· draw 26%
· Crystal Palace 36%
draw or Crystal Palace
62%
Crystal Palace clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Everton | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.6% | — | — | 45.6% | — | — | 24.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.0% | — | — | 39.6% | — | — | 27.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Crystal Palace win + Crystal Palace clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.32); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +104%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.03); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +77%
- Everton win + Everton clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.17); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.16); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +45%
Nottingham Forest HOME
v Leeds AWAY
14:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Nottingham Forest 1.51 – 1.13 Leeds
Nottingham Forest 47%
· draw 25%
· Leeds 28%
Nottingham Fo… or draw
72%
Nottingham Fo… clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Leeds |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.6% | — | — | 41.8% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 38.3% | — | — | 36.0% | — | — | 25.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Leeds win + Leeds clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.88); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +136%
- Nottingham Fo… win + Nottingham Fo… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.02); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Ipswich HOME
v Sunderland AWAY
14:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Ipswich 1.41 – 1.13 Sunderland
Ipswich 44%
· draw 25%
· Sunderland 31%
Sunderland clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Ipswich | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.6% | — | — | 42.8% | — | — | 24.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.1% | — | — | 37.0% | — | — | 26.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Sunderland win + Sunderland clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.18); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +121%
- Ipswich win + Ipswich clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.17); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Brentford HOME
v Tottenham AWAY
16:30 ·
E0 · expected goals
Brentford 1.75 – 1.35 Tottenham
Brentford 43%
· draw 30%
· Tottenham 27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Brentford | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.4% | — | — | 37.8% | — | — | 25.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 39.9% | — | — | 32.4% | — | — | 27.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Tottenham win + Tottenham clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.98); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +145%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.44); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +89%
- Brentford win + Brentford clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.76); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.33); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Brighton HOME
v Aston Villa AWAY
13:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Brighton 1.51 – 1.38 Aston Villa
Brighton 31%
· draw 24%
· Aston Villa 46%
Aston Villa clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%
Half-time markets
| Brighton | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.9% | — | — | 39.7% | — | — | 28.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.0% | — | — | 34.2% | — | — | 30.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Aston Villa win + Aston Villa clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.19); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +113%
- Brighton win + Brighton clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +90%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.04); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +77%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.59); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +56%
Manchester City HOME
v Bournemouth AWAY
13:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Manchester City 2.29 – 0.92 Bournemouth
Manchester City 64%
· draw 19%
· Bournemouth 17%
Manchester Ci… or draw
83%
Manchester Ci… clean sheet
40%
Bournemouth clean sheet
10%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Manchester City | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 50.5% | — | — | 34.6% | — | — | 15.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 55.7% | — | — | 28.8% | — | — | 15.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.63); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +84%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.45); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +69%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.19); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +35%
- Manchester Ci… win + Manchester Ci… clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +32%
Newcastle HOME
v Liverpool AWAY
15:30 ·
E0 · expected goals
Newcastle 1.60 – 1.60 Liverpool
Newcastle 35%
· draw 31%
· Liverpool 34%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 2–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Newcastle | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.4% | — | — | 37.3% | — | — | 31.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.0% | — | — | 32.0% | — | — | 34.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Liverpool win + Liverpool clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.36); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
- Newcastle win + Newcastle clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.35); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.69); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +100%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.61); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +66%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Fulham HOME
v Chelsea AWAY
19:00 ·
E0 · expected goals
Fulham 1.38 – 1.45 Chelsea
Fulham 35%
· draw 27%
· Chelsea 38%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Fulham | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.9% | — | — | 40.2% | — | — | 30.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.6% | — | — | 34.6% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Fulham win + Fulham clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.83); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
- Chelsea win + Chelsea clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.31); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.94); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.42); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%