Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
TUR2 1. Lig (Turkey) · 7 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Fatih Karagümrük HOME
v Bursaspor AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Fatih Karagümrük 1.49 – 1.09 Bursaspor
Fatih Karagümrük 48%
· draw 28%
· Bursaspor 24%
Fatih Karagüm… or draw
76%
Fatih Karagüm… clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Fatih Karagümrük | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.5% | — | — | 42.3% | — | — | 23.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 38.3% | — | — | 36.4% | — | — | 25.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Bursaspor win + Bursaspor clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.83); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +136%
- Fatih Karagüm… win + Fatih Karagüm… clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.92); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +66%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.53); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Iğdır FK HOME
v Kayserispor AWAY
16:00 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Iğdır FK 1.78 – 0.88 Kayserispor
Iğdır FK 52%
· draw 27%
· Kayserispor 21%
Kayserispor clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Iğdır FK | Draw | Kayserispor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.4% | — | — | 40.4% | — | — | 17.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 47.2% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — | 18.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.35); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +55%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +52%
- Iğdır FK win + Iğdır FK clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.94); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +41%
Ümraniyespor HOME
v Esenler Erokspor AWAY
16:00 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Ümraniyespor 1.14 – 1.43 Esenler Erokspor
Ümraniyespor 28%
· draw 28%
· Esenler Erokspor 44%
draw or Esenler Eroks…
72%
Ümraniyespor clean sheet
24%
Esenler Eroks… clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Ümraniyespor | Draw | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 24.5% | — | — | 42.5% | — | — | 33.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 26.8% | — | — | 36.7% | — | — | 36.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Ümraniyespor win + Ümraniyespor clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.33); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +124%
- Esenler Eroks… win + Esenler Eroks… clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.16); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
Antalyaspor HOME
v Pendikspor AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Antalyaspor 1.06 – 1.26 Pendikspor
Antalyaspor 28%
· draw 27%
· Pendikspor 45%
Antalyaspor clean sheet
28%
Pendikspor clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 10% · 1–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Antalyaspor | Draw | Pendikspor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 24.5% | — | — | 45.2% | — | — | 30.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 27.0% | — | — | 39.2% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Antalyaspor win + Antalyaspor clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
- Pendikspor win + Pendikspor clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +74%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.20); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +46%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Bandırmaspor HOME
v Keçiörengücü AWAY
14:00 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Bandırmaspor 1.34 – 1.10 Keçiörengücü
Bandırmaspor 35%
· draw 29%
· Keçiörengücü 36%
Bandırmaspor clean sheet
33%
Keçiörengücü clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Bandırmaspor | Draw | Keçiörengücü |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.6% | — | — | 43.8% | — | — | 24.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.1% | — | — | 37.9% | — | — | 27.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Keçiörengücü win + Keçiörengücü clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +116%
- Bandırmaspor win + Bandırmaspor clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.14); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +74%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Vanspor FK HOME
v İstanbulspor AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Vanspor FK 1.51 – 1.19 İstanbulspor
Vanspor FK 35%
· draw 24%
· İstanbulspor 41%
Vanspor FK clean sheet
30%
İstanbulspor clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Vanspor FK | Draw | İstanbulspor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.9% | — | — | 41.2% | — | — | 24.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.4% | — | — | 35.5% | — | — | 27.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- İstanbulspor win + İstanbulspor clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.67); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +129%
- Vanspor FK win + Vanspor FK clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +74%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.37); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Sivasspor HOME
v Manisa F.K. AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR2 · expected goals
Sivasspor 1.37 – 1.17 Manisa F.K.
Sivasspor 47%
· draw 28%
· Manisa F.K. 25%
Manisa F.K. clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Sivasspor | Draw | Manisa F.K. |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.4% | — | — | 42.9% | — | — | 25.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.7% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — | 28.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Manisa F.K. win + Manisa F.K. clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.82); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +113%
- Sivasspor win + Sivasspor clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.40); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +79%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%