Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
I1 Serie A (Italy) · 10 fixtures across 3 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Inter HOME
v Monza AWAY
16:30 ·
I1 · expected goals
Inter 3.01 – 0.61 Monza
Inter 77%
· draw 16%
· Monza 7%
Likeliest scores: 3–0 12% · 2–0 12% · 4–0 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Inter | Draw | Monza |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 65.0% | — | — | 27.5% | — | — | 7.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 71.2% | — | — | 21.5% | — | — | 7.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- draw or Monza + Under 3.5 — 11% (fair 8.74); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +48%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 4.02); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +47%
- Draw + Under 4.5 — 10% (fair 9.87); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +35%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +26%
Udinese HOME
v Como AWAY
16:30 ·
I1 · expected goals
Udinese 1.07 – 1.51 Como
Udinese 21%
· draw 27%
· Como 52%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 9%
Half-time markets
| Udinese | Draw | Como |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 22.6% | — | — | 42.2% | — | — | 35.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.6% | — | — | 36.3% | — | — | 39.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Udinese win + Udinese clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.08); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +141%
- Como win + Como clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.81); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
Genoa HOME
v Napoli AWAY
18:45 ·
I1 · expected goals
Genoa 1.02 – 1.43 Napoli
Genoa 23%
· draw 26%
· Napoli 51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Genoa | Draw | Napoli |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 22.3% | — | — | 43.5% | — | — | 34.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.3% | — | — | 37.5% | — | — | 38.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Genoa win + Genoa clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.72); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +135%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- Napoli win + Napoli clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.71); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%
Parma HOME
v Cagliari AWAY
18:45 ·
I1 · expected goals
Parma 1.30 – 1.07 Cagliari
Parma 36%
· draw 29%
· Cagliari 35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 10% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Parma | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.1% | — | — | 44.6% | — | — | 24.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.6% | — | — | 38.6% | — | — | 26.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Cagliari win + Cagliari clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.72); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +113%
- Parma win + Parma clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.09); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.87); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.26); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +48%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Frosinone HOME
v Juventus AWAY
16:30 ·
I1 · expected goals
Frosinone 0.96 – 1.93 Juventus
Frosinone 14%
· draw 28%
· Juventus 58%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 0–1 10% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%
Half-time markets
| Frosinone | Draw | Juventus |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 17.6% | — | — | 38.2% | — | — | 44.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 18.6% | — | — | 32.3% | — | — | 49.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +63%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +45%
- Juventus win + Juventus clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.09); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +42%
Venezia HOME
v Lecce AWAY
16:30 ·
I1 · expected goals
Venezia 1.24 – 0.91 Lecce
Venezia 41%
· draw 32%
· Lecce 27%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Venezia | Draw | Lecce |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.5% | — | — | 47.1% | — | — | 21.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.3% | — | — | 41.0% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lecce win + Lecce clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.93); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +118%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +88%
- Venezia win + Venezia clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.54); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 50% (fair 1.99); naive multiplication would say 36%, off by +38%
Torino HOME
v AC Milan AWAY
18:45 ·
I1 · expected goals
Torino 1.09 – 1.51 AC Milan
Torino 26%
· draw 26%
· AC Milan 48%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 8%
Half-time markets
| Torino | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 22.9% | — | — | 42.1% | — | — | 35.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.9% | — | — | 36.2% | — | — | 38.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Torino win + Torino clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.03); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
- AC Milan win + AC Milan clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.86); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.53); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
Atalanta HOME
v Sassuolo AWAY
18:45 ·
I1 · expected goals
Atalanta 2.31 – 0.93 Sassuolo
Atalanta 61%
· draw 22%
· Sassuolo 17%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Atalanta | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 50.9% | — | — | 34.3% | — | — | 14.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 56.1% | — | — | 28.5% | — | — | 15.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.78); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +86%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.51); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +69%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.17); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +34%
- Atalanta win + Atalanta clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.82); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +31%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Bologna HOME
v Lazio AWAY
16:30 ·
I1 · expected goals
Bologna 1.36 – 1.10 Lazio
Bologna 38%
· draw 29%
· Lazio 33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Bologna | Draw | Lazio |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.1% | — | — | 43.6% | — | — | 24.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.6% | — | — | 37.7% | — | — | 26.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lazio win + Lazio clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.01); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +118%
- Bologna win + Bologna clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +53%
AS Roma HOME
v Fiorentina AWAY
18:45 ·
I1 · expected goals
AS Roma 1.79 – 1.04 Fiorentina
AS Roma 58%
· draw 23%
· Fiorentina 19%
Fiorentina clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| AS Roma | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 40.7% | — | — | 39.4% | — | — | 19.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 45.1% | — | — | 33.6% | — | — | 21.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Fiorentina win + Fiorentina clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.57); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +191%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.85); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.66); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
- AS Roma win + AS Roma clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +51%