Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
MLS Major League Soccer (USA & Canada) · 15 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Charlotte HOME
v DC United AWAY
23:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Charlotte 1.91 – 0.93 DC United
Charlotte 59%
· draw 24%
· DC United 17%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Charlotte | Draw | DC United |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 44.1% | — | — | 38.6% | — | — | 17.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 49.0% | — | — | 32.7% | — | — | 18.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.91); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.84); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.42); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +47%
- Charlotte win + Charlotte clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.01); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +41%
Orlando City SC HOME
v Real Salt Lake AWAY
23:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Orlando City SC 1.75 – 1.14 Real Salt Lake
Orlando City SC 49%
· draw 27%
· Real Salt Lake 25%
Orlando City … or draw
75%
draw or Real Salt Lake
51%
Orlando City … clean sheet
32%
Real Salt Lake clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Orlando City SC | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.9% | — | — | 39.1% | — | — | 22.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.9% | — | — | 33.4% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Real Salt Lake win + Real Salt Lake clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.75); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +170%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.01); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +72%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.78); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
- Orlando City … win + Orlando City … clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.84); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +59%
New York Red Bulls HOME
v Chicago Fire AWAY
23:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
New York Red Bulls 1.75 – 1.26 Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls 41%
· draw 25%
· Chicago Fire 34%
New York Red … or draw
66%
New York Red … clean sheet
28%
Chicago Fire clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.5% | — | — | 38.3% | — | — | 24.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 41.2% | — | — | 32.8% | — | — | 26.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Chicago Fire win + Chicago Fire clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.29); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +156%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.26); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +82%
- New York Red … win + New York Red … clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.35); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.09); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
FC Cincinnati HOME
v Seattle Sounders AWAY
23:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
FC Cincinnati 1.37 – 1.23 Seattle Sounders
FC Cincinnati 36%
· draw 26%
· Seattle Sounders 38%
draw or Seattle Sound…
64%
FC Cincinnati clean sheet
29%
Seattle Sound… clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Seattle Sounders |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.8% | — | — | 42.4% | — | — | 26.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.0% | — | — | 36.6% | — | — | 29.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Seattle Sound… win + Seattle Sound… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.67); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +108%
- FC Cincinnati win + FC Cincinnati clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.68); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +85%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.49); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%
Inter Miami HOME
v Toronto FC AWAY
23:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Inter Miami 2.39 – 1.05 Toronto FC
Inter Miami 77%
· draw 13%
· Toronto FC 10%
Inter Miami clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–1 8% · 3–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Inter Miami | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 50.4% | — | — | 33.3% | — | — | 16.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 55.4% | — | — | 27.8% | — | — | 16.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 12% (fair 8.47); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +92%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 4.00); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +84%
- Inter Miami win + Inter Miami clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +35%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 51% (fair 1.96); naive multiplication would say 40%, off by +29%
CF Montreal HOME
v Los Angeles Galaxy AWAY
23:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
CF Montreal 1.58 – 1.64 Los Angeles Galaxy
CF Montreal 36%
· draw 25%
· Los Angeles Galaxy 39%
draw or Los Angeles G…
64%
CF Montreal clean sheet
19%
Los Angeles G… clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 2–2 7%
Half-time markets
| CF Montreal | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.6% | — | — | 37.2% | — | — | 32.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.1% | — | — | 31.9% | — | — | 35.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- CF Montreal win + CF Montreal clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.66); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +112%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.72); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +101%
- Los Angeles G… win + Los Angeles G… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.13); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +101%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.67); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Nashville SC HOME
v Columbus Crew AWAY
00:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Nashville SC 1.45 – 1.40 Columbus Crew
Nashville SC 38%
· draw 23%
· Columbus Crew 39%
Nashville SC clean sheet
25%
Columbus Crew clean sheet
23%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Nashville SC | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.6% | — | — | 40.0% | — | — | 29.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.5% | — | — | 34.5% | — | — | 32.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Columbus Crew win + Columbus Crew clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.77); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +104%
- Nashville SC win + Nashville SC clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.44); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +97%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.98); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.48); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
Austin HOME
v Philadelphia Union AWAY
00:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Austin 1.12 – 1.44 Philadelphia Union
Austin 28%
· draw 27%
· Philadelphia Union 45%
draw or Philadelphia …
72%
Philadelphia … clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Austin | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 24.0% | — | — | 42.7% | — | — | 33.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 26.3% | — | — | 36.8% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Austin win + Austin clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.42); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +127%
- Philadelphia … win + Philadelphia … clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.07); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +70%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.49); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%
St. Louis City HOME
v Houston Dynamo AWAY
00:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
St. Louis City 1.50 – 1.30 Houston Dynamo
St. Louis City 43%
· draw 27%
· Houston Dynamo 30%
St. Louis City or draw
70%
draw or Houston Dynamo
57%
St. Louis City clean sheet
27%
Houston Dynamo clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 8%
Half-time markets
| St. Louis City | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.5% | — | — | 40.5% | — | — | 26.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.8% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — | 29.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Houston Dynamo win + Houston Dynamo clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.30); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +118%
- St. Louis City win + St. Louis City clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.80); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +83%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.87); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.32); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Vancouver Whitecaps HOME
v FC Dallas AWAY
01:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Vancouver Whitecaps 1.87 – 1.12 FC Dallas
Vancouver Whitecaps 61%
· draw 22%
· FC Dallas 17%
Vancouver Whi… or draw
83%
Vancouver Whi… clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Vancouver Whitecaps | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 41.1% | — | — | 38.1% | — | — | 20.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 45.4% | — | — | 32.4% | — | — | 22.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC Dallas win + FC Dallas clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.92); naive multiplication would say 3%, off by +192%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.15); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.14); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Vancouver Whi… win + Vancouver Whi… clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.67); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +53%
San Jose Earthquakes HOME
v Minnesota United FC AWAY
02:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
San Jose Earthquakes 1.51 – 1.63 Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes 35%
· draw 28%
· Minnesota United FC 37%
San Jose Eart… or draw
63%
draw or Minnesota Uni…
65%
San Jose Eart… clean sheet
19%
Minnesota Uni… clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Minnesota United FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.4% | — | — | 37.7% | — | — | 32.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.8% | — | — | 32.4% | — | — | 35.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- San Jose Eart… win + San Jose Eart… clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.54); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +94%
- Minnesota Uni… win + Minnesota Uni… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +94%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
Los Angeles FC HOME
v Portland Timbers AWAY
02:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
Los Angeles FC 2.08 – 1.06 Portland Timbers
Los Angeles FC 68%
· draw 19%
· Portland Timbers 12%
Los Angeles FC or draw
88%
draw or Portland Timb…
32%
Los Angeles FC clean sheet
35%
Portland Timb… clean sheet
13%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 1–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Los Angeles FC | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 45.4% | — | — | 36.3% | — | — | 18.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 50.1% | — | — | 30.6% | — | — | 19.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.39); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.87); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +74%
- Los Angeles FC win + Los Angeles FC clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +43%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.11); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +37%
San Diego HOME
v Colorado Rapids AWAY
02:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
San Diego 2.20 – 1.01 Colorado Rapids
San Diego 67%
· draw 20%
· Colorado Rapids 13%
draw or Colorado Rapi…
33%
Colorado Rapi… clean sheet
11%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 2–0 10% · 1–1 9% · 1–0 9%
Half-time markets
| San Diego | Draw | Colorado Rapids |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 47.9% | — | — | 35.2% | — | — | 16.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 52.9% | — | — | 29.5% | — | — | 17.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.38); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +80%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.52); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +75%
- San Diego win + San Diego clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.13); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +38%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.10); naive multiplication would say 36%, off by +34%
New England Revolution HOME
v New York City FC AWAY
20:30 ·
MLS · expected goals
New England Revolution 1.28 – 1.40 New York City FC
New England Revolution 31%
· draw 28%
· New York City FC 41%
New England R… or draw
59%
draw or New York City…
69%
New England R… clean sheet
25%
New York City… clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| New England Revolution | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.6% | — | — | 41.6% | — | — | 30.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.2% | — | — | 35.9% | — | — | 33.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- New England R… win + New England R… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.72); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +108%
- New York City… win + New York City… clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.88); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +88%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.69); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +65%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Atlanta United FC HOME
v Sporting Kansas City AWAY
23:00 ·
MLS · expected goals
Atlanta United FC 1.82 – 1.32 Sporting Kansas City
Atlanta United FC 47%
· draw 27%
· Sporting Kansas City 26%
Atlanta Unite… or draw
74%
draw or Sporting Kans…
53%
Atlanta Unite… clean sheet
27%
Sporting Kans… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 7%
Half-time markets
| Atlanta United FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.9% | — | — | 37.4% | — | — | 24.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 41.6% | — | — | 32.0% | — | — | 26.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Sporting Kans… win + Sporting Kans… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.65); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +158%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.50); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +90%
- Atlanta Unite… win + Atlanta Unite… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.54); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +69%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.49); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +66%