Match model — probabilities and prices

Tuesday 25 August 2026 · 25 matches · 4 competitions · generated 2026-08-20 06:23 UTC
Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
EFL 17 PSL 4 SP1 1 UCL 3

Best value today across all competitions, ranked by expected value rather than by how likely they are to win

LeagueMatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedOrlando Pirates H67.1%1.49———
EFLPlymouthvCoventryCoventry A58.1%1.72———
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyFleetwood Town H thin data57.9%1.73———
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenBodo/Glimt H56.8%1.76———
EFLIpswichvLeicesterIpswich H52.5%1.90———
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordBrentford A52.1%1.92———
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesWolves A50.4%1.99———
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedSiwelele H46.7%2.14———
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsNottingham Forest H46.7%2.14———
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamSouthampton H44.1%2.27———
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughWatford H40.1%2.49———
EFLCardiffvNorwichNorwich A39.6%2.53———
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientWalsall H thin data39.3%2.54———
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnLincoln A thin data39.2%2.55———
EFLBarnsleyvCreweBarnsley H thin data39.1%2.55———
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityKruger United H39.1%2.56———
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaSabah FA H thin data38.7%2.58———
EFLStoke CityvHull CityHull City A38.7%2.58———
UCLLask LinzvCelticCeltic A38.6%2.59———
UCLLask LinzvCelticLask Linz H37.6%2.66———
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdBlackburn H37.4%2.67———
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyTS Galaxy A37.3%2.68———
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallMillwall A thin data37.1%2.70———
EFLStevenagevReadingStevenage H thin data37.0%2.71———
SP1ValenciavReal BetisReal Betis A36.0%2.78———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, ranked by expected value

Kept separate from the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that, books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has further to travel.

How much this model actually knows about goals. Measured on out-of-fold predictions during training, not on the fixtures below:

No goal markets priced. These need over/under and both-teams-to-score odds, which only arrive with --odds.

Same-match combinations priced from the joint distribution, so correlation is handled correctly

The vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.

MatchCombinationModelFairvs naiveBookEV
IpswichvLeicesterAway + Away clean sheet10.3%9.68+183%——
Sheffield WednesdayvWolvesHome + Home clean sheet11.1%8.97+183%——
Fleetwood TownvShrewsburyAway + Away clean sheet10.6%9.43+179%——
WatfordvPeterboroughAway + Away clean sheet14.0%7.15+142%——
StevenagevReadingAway + Away clean sheet13.2%7.56+140%——
Lask LinzvCelticHome + Home clean sheet12.9%7.74+139%——
Nottingham ForestvLeedsAway + Away clean sheet14.5%6.88+136%——
SiwelelevChippa UnitedAway + Away clean sheet15.0%6.68+133%——
DoncastervMiddlesbroughAway + Away clean sheet14.7%6.79+131%——
WalsallvLeyton OrientAway + Away clean sheet16.6%6.02+119%——
Bodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenBTTS No + Under 2.519.2%5.20+118%——
Cambridge UnitedvMillwallAway + Away clean sheet17.2%5.80+115%——
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaAway + Away clean sheet17.4%5.73+112%——
CardiffvNorwichHome + Home clean sheet17.0%5.88+107%——
BarnsleyvCreweAway + Away clean sheet17.2%5.81+106%——
SouthamptonvWest HamAway + Away clean sheet16.4%6.11+105%——
SouthamptonvWest HamHome + Home clean sheet16.5%6.06+104%——
ValenciavReal BetisHome + Home clean sheet18.4%5.43+104%——
BlackpoolvLincolnHome + Home clean sheet18.6%5.37+102%——
Stoke CityvHull CityAway + Away clean sheet19.1%5.23+100%——

Long builders 10+ legs, 1,000+ fair odds, reusing the same matches

Read the odds before the legs. Fair odds of 1,000 means this wins about once in a thousand attempts. That is not pessimism about the model, it is what the number says, and stacking more legs can only make it rarer. Nothing in this section is a recommendation.

Legs from the same match are combined by intersecting the score matrix, so their correlation is exact. Legs from different matches are multiplied, which is correct because they are independent. Most bookmakers' builders multiply everything, and on correlated legs that is wrong by a factor shown against each slip below — typically 2 to 3x here.
Slips are ranked by true probability, not by that factor. At a fixed odds target the most mispriced slip is simply the one stacking the most redundant legs, which is a worse bet dressed up; the least unlikely route to the target is the useful one. Leg groups that collapse to a single selection are excluded, and any that survive are flagged.

39 legs across 24 matches — fair odds 1,088 (wins about 1 time in 1,088)
A book multiplying every leg would price this at 4,173, which is 3.8x the fair price — that gap is the correlation between legs in the same match.
39 legs across 24 matches — fair odds 1,089 (wins about 1 time in 1,089)
A book multiplying every leg would price this at 4,177, which is 3.8x the fair price — that gap is the correlation between legs in the same match.
39 legs across 24 matches — fair odds 1,093 (wins about 1 time in 1,093)
A book multiplying every leg would price this at 4,192, which is 3.8x the fair price — that gap is the correlation between legs in the same match.
39 legs across 24 matches — fair odds 1,093 (wins about 1 time in 1,093)
A book multiplying every leg would price this at 4,194, which is 3.8x the fair price — that gap is the correlation between legs in the same match.
39 legs across 24 matches — fair odds 1,097 (wins about 1 time in 1,097)
A book multiplying every leg would price this at 4,208, which is 3.8x the fair price — that gap is the correlation between legs in the same match.

Corners a different distribution and a different estimator

Corners are not Poisson - variance over mean is 1.17 on the total against 0.99 for goals - so these come from a negative binomial. Using the goal machinery would run about two points light on over 13.5, always in the same direction. Reusing the Dixon-Coles team ratings was tried too and finished worse than predicting the league average; these rates are time-weighted rolling means instead.
Out of sample on 27,773 matches the totals beat the base rate by 0.0108 of log loss and most corners by 0.0407, at 58.0% accuracy against 53.6%. Most corners is the stronger market by some distance - corner dominance is a stable team property, the number of corners in a match much less so. No bookmaker corner prices were fetched, so these are model numbers with no edge attached.

LeagueMatchSelectionModelFairBookEV
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughMore than 4 corners most corners thin data97.6%1.01——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenMore than 4 corners most corners97.3%1.01——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdMore than 4 corners most corners97.3%1.01——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamMore than 4 corners most corners97.2%1.01——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughMore than 4 corners most corners97.1%1.01——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterMore than 4 corners most corners97.1%1.01——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityMore than 4 corners most corners97.1%1.01——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallMore than 4 corners most corners thin data96.8%1.01——
UCLLask LinzvCelticMore than 4 corners most corners96.7%1.01——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordMore than 4 corners most corners96.4%1.01——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnMore than 4 corners most corners thin data96.2%1.02——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsMore than 4 corners most corners96.0%1.02——
EFLCardiffvNorwichMore than 4 corners most corners95.6%1.02——
EFLStevenagevReadingMore than 4 corners most corners thin data95.1%1.02——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesMore than 4 corners most corners94.7%1.02——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisMore than 4 corners most corners94.5%1.02——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryMore than 4 corners most corners94.0%1.03——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedMore than 4 corners most corners93.6%1.03——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyMore than 4 corners most corners93.3%1.03——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedMore than 4 corners most corners92.5%1.03——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedUnder13.591.2%1.10——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyUnder13.590.1%1.11——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedUnder13.589.7%1.12——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryUnder13.589.0%1.12——

Fixtures where either side has fewer than 10 matches of corner history are absent rather than averaged, and four competitions in this dataset carry no corner data at all. Corner totals and corner results are never combined with each other: they come from separate estimators with no joint distribution between them.

Odd / even total goals offered, not recommended

Across the 25 fixtures on this page the model puts odd between 48.3% and 49.5% - a spread of 1.2 points. That is not a limitation of this model, it is the arithmetic: for a total with mean L the chance of an odd number is (1 - e-2L) / 2, which is 49.1% at a 2.0-goal match and 50.0% at 3.5. Measured on 65,170 real matches the split is 49.90 / 50.10.
A bookmaker's margin on this market is several times the whole range the model can express, so there is no price at which the numbers below constitute an edge. They are here for completeness.

Over/under builder pick a side and a line, or let the model choose

Out of fold during training this market scored 0.6103 against 0.6920 for always predicting the base rate, over 97,770 observations. That is the reason this builder exists for totals and not for every market on the page.

LeagueMatchPickConfidenceFairBookEV
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenOver0.597.0%1.03——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryOver0.594.7%1.06——
UCLLask LinzvCelticOver0.594.5%1.06——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterOver0.594.3%1.06——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamOver0.594.3%1.06——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyOver0.5 thin data94.1%1.06——
EFLStevenagevReadingOver0.5 thin data93.9%1.07——
EFLCardiffvNorwichOver0.593.0%1.08——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweOver0.5 thin data92.8%1.08——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordOver0.592.3%1.08——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughOver0.5 thin data92.1%1.09——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsOver0.591.4%1.09——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughOver0.591.3%1.09——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesOver0.591.3%1.09——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisOver0.590.6%1.10——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnOver0.5 thin data90.5%1.10——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaOver0.5 thin data90.1%1.11——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedOver0.590.1%1.11——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdOver0.590.0%1.11——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenOver1.589.8%1.11——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientOver0.5 thin data89.7%1.11——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityOver0.589.6%1.12——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallOver0.5 thin data88.2%1.13——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityOver0.587.9%1.14——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyOver0.586.9%1.15——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedOver0.585.2%1.17——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedUnder3.583.1%1.20——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryOver1.583.0%1.20——
UCLLask LinzvCelticOver1.582.4%1.21——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamOver1.581.9%1.22——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterOver1.581.9%1.22——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyOver1.5 thin data81.5%1.23——
EFLStevenagevReadingOver1.5 thin data80.8%1.24——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyUnder3.580.6%1.24——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityUnder3.578.8%1.27——
EFLCardiffvNorwichOver1.578.6%1.27——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallUnder3.5 thin data78.4%1.28——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweOver1.5 thin data77.9%1.28——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordOver1.576.6%1.30——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughOver1.5 thin data76.1%1.31——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityUnder3.575.4%1.33——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientUnder3.5 thin data75.3%1.33——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedUnder3.574.6%1.34——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdUnder3.574.5%1.34——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsOver1.574.5%1.34——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaUnder3.5 thin data74.4%1.34——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughOver1.574.3%1.35——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesOver1.574.2%1.35——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnUnder3.5 thin data73.3%1.36——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisUnder3.573.2%1.37——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisOver1.572.5%1.38——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnOver1.5 thin data72.4%1.38——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesUnder3.571.4%1.40——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaOver1.5 thin data71.3%1.40——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughUnder3.571.3%1.40——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdOver1.571.2%1.40——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsUnder3.571.1%1.41——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedOver1.571.0%1.41——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientOver1.5 thin data70.4%1.42——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityOver1.570.3%1.42——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughUnder3.5 thin data69.3%1.44——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordUnder3.568.6%1.46——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenOver2.567.5%1.48——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweUnder3.5 thin data67.1%1.49——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallOver1.5 thin data67.0%1.49——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityOver1.566.5%1.50——
EFLCardiffvNorwichUnder3.566.3%1.51——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyOver1.564.3%1.56——
EFLStevenagevReadingUnder3.5 thin data63.3%1.58——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedUnder2.562.4%1.60——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyUnder3.5 thin data62.3%1.61——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterUnder3.561.7%1.62——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamUnder3.561.7%1.62——
UCLLask LinzvCelticUnder3.560.9%1.64——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedOver1.560.7%1.65——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryUnder3.559.9%1.67——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyUnder2.559.6%1.68——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryOver2.558.3%1.71——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityUnder2.557.8%1.73——
UCLLask LinzvCelticOver2.557.6%1.74——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallUnder2.5 thin data57.4%1.74——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamOver2.557.0%1.75——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterOver2.557.0%1.76——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyOver2.5 thin data56.5%1.77——
EFLStevenagevReadingOver2.5 thin data55.7%1.79——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityUnder2.554.6%1.83——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientUnder2.5 thin data54.4%1.84——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedUnder2.553.9%1.86——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdUnder2.553.8%1.86——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaUnder2.5 thin data53.7%1.86——
EFLCardiffvNorwichOver2.553.3%1.88——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenOver3.552.7%1.90——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweOver2.5 thin data52.7%1.90——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnUnder2.5 thin data52.6%1.90——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisUnder2.552.6%1.90——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordOver2.551.4%1.95——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesUnder2.550.9%1.96——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughUnder2.550.9%1.97——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughOver2.5 thin data50.9%1.97——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsUnder2.550.7%1.97——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsOver2.549.3%2.03——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughUnder2.5 thin data49.1%2.04——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughOver2.549.1%2.04——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesOver2.549.1%2.04——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordUnder2.548.6%2.06——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisOver2.547.4%2.11——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnOver2.5 thin data47.4%2.11——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweUnder2.5 thin data47.3%2.11——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenUnder3.547.3%2.11——
EFLCardiffvNorwichUnder2.546.7%2.14——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaOver2.5 thin data46.3%2.16——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdOver2.546.2%2.16——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedOver2.546.1%2.17——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientOver2.5 thin data45.6%2.20——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityOver2.545.4%2.20——
EFLStevenagevReadingUnder2.5 thin data44.3%2.26——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyUnder2.5 thin data43.5%2.30——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterUnder2.543.0%2.32——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamUnder2.543.0%2.33——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallOver2.5 thin data42.6%2.35——
UCLLask LinzvCelticUnder2.542.4%2.36——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityOver2.542.2%2.37——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryUnder2.541.7%2.40——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyOver2.540.4%2.48——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryOver3.540.1%2.50——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedUnder1.539.3%2.54——
UCLLask LinzvCelticOver3.539.1%2.56——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamOver3.538.3%2.61——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterOver3.538.3%2.61——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyOver3.5 thin data37.7%2.65——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedOver2.537.6%2.66——
EFLStevenagevReadingOver3.5 thin data36.7%2.73——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyUnder1.535.7%2.80——
EFLCardiffvNorwichOver3.533.7%2.97——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityUnder1.533.5%2.98——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallUnder1.5 thin data33.0%3.03——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweOver3.5 thin data32.9%3.04——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenUnder2.532.5%3.08——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordOver3.531.4%3.19——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughOver3.5 thin data30.7%3.26——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityUnder1.529.7%3.36——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientUnder1.5 thin data29.6%3.38——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedUnder1.529.0%3.45——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsOver3.528.9%3.46——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdUnder1.528.8%3.47——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughOver3.528.7%3.48——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaUnder1.5 thin data28.7%3.49——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesOver3.528.6%3.49——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnUnder1.5 thin data27.6%3.63——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisUnder1.527.5%3.64——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisOver3.526.8%3.73——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnOver3.5 thin data26.7%3.75——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesUnder1.525.8%3.88——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughUnder1.525.7%3.90——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaOver3.5 thin data25.6%3.91——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsUnder1.525.5%3.92——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdOver3.525.5%3.93——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedOver3.525.4%3.94——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientOver3.5 thin data24.7%4.04——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityOver3.524.6%4.07——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughUnder1.5 thin data23.9%4.19——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordUnder1.523.4%4.28——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweUnder1.5 thin data22.1%4.53——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallOver3.5 thin data21.6%4.63——
EFLCardiffvNorwichUnder1.521.4%4.66——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityOver3.521.2%4.71——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyOver3.519.4%5.14——
EFLStevenagevReadingUnder1.5 thin data19.2%5.20——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyUnder1.5 thin data18.5%5.40——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterUnder1.518.1%5.51——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamUnder1.518.1%5.53——
UCLLask LinzvCelticUnder1.517.6%5.69——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryUnder1.517.0%5.90——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedOver3.516.9%5.93——
PSLSiwelelevChippa UnitedUnder0.514.8%6.76——
PSLMarumo GallantsvTS GalaxyUnder0.513.1%7.63——
PSLKruger UnitedvDurban CityUnder0.512.1%8.28——
EFLCambridge UnitedvMillwallUnder0.5 thin data11.8%8.44——
EFLStoke CityvHull CityUnder0.510.4%9.63——
EFLWalsallvLeyton OrientUnder0.5 thin data10.3%9.70——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenUnder1.510.2%9.81——
EFLBlackburnvSheffield UtdUnder0.510.0%10.02——
PSLOrlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedUnder0.59.9%10.07——
UCLSabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaUnder0.5 thin data9.9%10.07——
EFLBlackpoolvLincolnUnder0.5 thin data9.5%10.58——
SP1ValenciavReal BetisUnder0.59.4%10.62——
EFLSheffield WednesdayvWolvesUnder0.58.7%11.54——
EFLWatfordvPeterboroughUnder0.58.7%11.56——
EFLNottingham ForestvLeedsUnder0.58.6%11.65——
EFLDoncastervMiddlesbroughUnder0.5 thin data7.9%12.59——
EFLBirminghamvBrentfordUnder0.57.7%13.01——
EFLBarnsleyvCreweUnder0.5 thin data7.2%13.81——
EFLCardiffvNorwichUnder0.57.0%14.30——
EFLStevenagevReadingUnder0.5 thin data6.1%16.28——
EFLFleetwood TownvShrewsburyUnder0.5 thin data5.9%17.06——
EFLSouthamptonvWest HamUnder0.55.7%17.44——
EFLIpswichvLeicesterUnder0.55.7%17.46——
UCLLask LinzvCelticUnder0.55.5%18.07——
EFLPlymouthvCoventryUnder0.55.3%18.88——
UCLBodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenUnder0.53.0%33.71——

Both sides of every line are listed, so choosing the side the model dislikes is allowed — it just gives you the complement, since Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 come from one distribution and sum to exactly one. Model's choice picks the line it is most confident about per fixture, marked best, which is rarely the 2.5 every coupon leads with: 2.5 sits nearest the median total, which is exactly where a goal model has least to say.

Whatever you choose, the slip takes one leg per fixture. Over 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 on the same match are not three bets — they nearly all win or lose together, and multiplying them would state a confidence the model does not have. Confidence is the calibrated model probability, not a price: a 4-leg slip at 80% a leg lands 41% of the time, and the margin still compounds at roughly 5% per leg.

Six-leg builder every leg above 50%, drawn from at least three different markets

What six legs actually means. The most likely slip below lands 34.8% of the time — it loses about 2 times for every time it wins, and the rest are longer than that. Each leg being above 50% does not make the slip likely; six coin flips are all individually likely to land heads-or-better and still rarely all do. The margin compounds too: at 5% a leg, about a quarter of fair value is gone before the model has been wrong about anything. This section exists because it was asked for, not because the maths recommends it.
LegsSlip landsWeakest legFairBookEVMargin cost
Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen — over 1.5 goals
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (H)
Siwelele v Chippa United — Siwelele or draw (1st half)
Plymouth v Coventry — over 1.5 goals
Stevenage v Reading — over 1.5 goals
Marumo Gallants v TS Galaxy — under 3.5 goals
1H, 1X2, Totals
34.8%81%2.9——−25%
Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen — over 1.5 goals
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (H)
Siwelele v Chippa United — Siwelele or draw (1st half)
Birmingham v Brentford — Brentford or draw (2nd half)
Plymouth v Coventry — over 1.5 goals
Stevenage v Reading — over 1.5 goals
1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals
34.7%80%2.9——−25%
Watford v Peterborough — Watford or draw (1st half)
Cambridge United v Millwall — Cambridge United or draw (2nd half)
Marumo Gallants v TS Galaxy — under 3.5 goals
Doncaster v Middlesbrough — Doncaster or draw (1st half)
Sabah FA v Hapoel Beer Sheva — Sabah FA or draw (2nd half)
Kruger United v Durban City — under 3.5 goals
1H, 2H, Totals
19.8%72%5.1——−25%
Watford v Peterborough — Watford or draw (1st half)
Cambridge United v Millwall — Cambridge United or draw (2nd half)
Walsall v Leyton Orient — Walsall or draw (H)
Doncaster v Middlesbrough — Doncaster or draw (1st half)
Sabah FA v Hapoel Beer Sheva — Sabah FA or draw (2nd half)
Kruger United v Durban City — under 3.5 goals
1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals
17.1%70%5.8——−25%
Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen — over 1.5 goals
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (H)
Siwelele v Chippa United — Siwelele or draw (1st half)
Birmingham v Brentford — Brentford or draw (2nd half)
Plymouth v Coventry — over 1.5 goals
Marumo Gallants v TS Galaxy — under 3.5 goals
1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals
34.6%80%2.9——−25%

Legs come from different matches, so the probabilities do multiply — that part is honest. Margin cost is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg. Weakest leg is the one carrying the slip: a chain is only as good as that number, and it is the first thing a bookmaker chooses when they build these for you.

Accumulators shown with what they cost you

Legs from different matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything. Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a good idea.

LegsNModelFairBookEVMargin cost
Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen — over 1.5 goals
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (H)		279.0%1.27——−9%
Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen — over 1.5 goals
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (1st half)		278.2%1.28——−9%
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (H)
Siwelele v Chippa United — under 3.5 goals		273.2%1.37——−9%
Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United — Orlando Pirates or draw (1st half)
Siwelele v Chippa United — under 3.5 goals		272.4%1.38——−9%
Plymouth v Coventry — over 1.5 goals
Lask Linz v Celtic — over 1.5 goals		268.5%1.46——−9%
Plymouth v Coventry — over 1.5 goals
Southampton v West Ham — over 1.5 goals		268.0%1.47——−9%
Lask Linz v Celtic — over 1.5 goals
Southampton v West Ham — over 1.5 goals		267.5%1.48——−9%
Ipswich v Leicester — over 1.5 goals
Siwelele v Chippa United — Siwelele or draw (1st half)		266.8%1.50——−9%
Ipswich v Leicester — over 1.5 goals
Birmingham v Brentford — Brentford or draw (1st half)		266.7%1.50——−9%
Siwelele v Chippa United — Siwelele or draw (1st half)
Birmingham v Brentford — Brentford or draw (1st half)		266.5%1.50——−9%

By competition 25 fixtures across 4 competitions · 0/75 selections priced

EFL EFL Cup (England) (17 matches) all days →
Best value in EFL
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
PlymouthvCoventryCoventry A58.1%1.72———
Fleetwood TownvShrewsburyFleetwood Town H thin data57.9%1.73———
IpswichvLeicesterIpswich H52.5%1.90———
BirminghamvBrentfordBrentford A52.1%1.92———
Sheffield WednesdayvWolvesWolves A50.4%1.99———
Nottingham ForestvLeedsNottingham Forest H46.7%2.14———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Cardiff HOME v Norwich AWAY

18:00 · EFL · expected goals Cardiff 1.40 – 1.47 Norwich
Cardiff 35% · draw 26% · Norwich 40%
Cardiff win
35%
Draw
26%
Norwich win
40%
Cardiff or draw
60%
either team
74%
draw or Norwich
65%
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
BTTS Yes
55%
BTTS No
45%
Cardiff clean sheet
23%
Norwich clean sheet
25%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
CardiffDrawNorwich
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half29.1%——39.9%——31.0%——
2nd half31.7%——34.4%——33.9%——
Correlated combinations
  • Cardiff win + Cardiff clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
  • Norwich win + Norwich clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.00); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +76%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.51); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%

Doncaster HOME v Middlesbrough AWAY

18:30 · EFL · expected goals Doncaster 1.53 – 1.19 Middlesbrough
Thin data: Doncaster 12 matches, Middlesbrough 342 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Doncaster 33% · draw 34% · Middlesbrough 33%
Doncaster win
33%
Draw
34%
Middlesbrough win
33%
Doncaster or draw
67%
either team
66%
draw or Middlesbrough
67%
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
BTTS Yes
53%
BTTS No
47%
Doncaster clean sheet
30%
Middlesbrough clean sheet
22%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
DoncasterDrawMiddlesbrough
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half34.2%——41.0%——24.8%——
2nd half37.8%——35.3%——27.0%——
Correlated combinations
  • Middlesbrough win + Middlesbrough clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.79); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +131%
  • Doncaster win + Doncaster clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.29); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.75); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%

Walsall HOME v Leyton Orient AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Walsall 1.35 – 1.08 Leyton Orient
Thin data: Walsall 10 matches, Leyton Orient 10 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Walsall 39% · draw 30% · Leyton Orient 30%
Walsall win
39%
Draw
30%
Leyton Orient win
30%
Walsall or draw
70%
either team
70%
draw or Leyton Orient
61%
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
BTTS Yes
50%
BTTS No
50%
Walsall clean sheet
34%
Leyton Orient clean sheet
26%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
WalsallDrawLeyton Orient
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half32.1%——43.9%——24.0%——
2nd half35.7%——38.0%——26.3%——
Correlated combinations
  • Leyton Orient win + Leyton Orient clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.02); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +119%
  • Walsall win + Walsall clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.03); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +71%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.77); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%

Watford HOME v Peterborough AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Watford 1.53 – 1.09 Peterborough
Watford 40% · draw 27% · Peterborough 32%
Watford win
40%
Draw
27%
Peterborough win
32%
Watford or draw
68%
either team
73%
draw or Peterborough
60%
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
BTTS Yes
52%
BTTS No
48%
Watford clean sheet
33%
Peterborough clean sheet
22%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
WatfordDrawPeterborough
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half35.3%——41.8%——22.9%——
2nd half39.2%——35.9%——24.9%——
Correlated combinations
  • Peterborough win + Peterborough clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.15); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +142%
  • Watford win + Watford clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.87); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +64%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%

Stoke City HOME v Hull City AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Stoke City 1.26 – 1.17 Hull City
Stoke City 34% · draw 27% · Hull City 39%
Stoke City win
34%
Draw
27%
Hull City win
39%
Stoke City or draw
61%
either team
73%
draw or Hull City
66%
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
BTTS Yes
50%
BTTS No
50%
Stoke City clean sheet
31%
Hull City clean sheet
28%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
Stoke CityDrawHull City
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half29.3%——44.1%——26.6%——
2nd half32.5%——38.2%——29.3%——
Correlated combinations
  • Hull City win + Hull City clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.23); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
  • Stoke City win + Stoke City clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%

Plymouth HOME v Coventry AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Plymouth 1.23 – 1.94 Coventry
Plymouth 19% · draw 23% · Coventry 58%
Plymouth win
19%
Draw
23%
Coventry win
58%
Plymouth or draw
42%
either team
77%
draw or Coventry
81%
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
BTTS No
43%
Plymouth clean sheet
14%
Coventry clean sheet
29%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 8% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
PlymouthDrawCoventry
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half22.2%——36.8%——41.1%——
2nd half23.6%——31.3%——45.1%——
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.54); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +87%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.73); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
  • Coventry win + Coventry clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.05); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +58%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 51% (fair 1.98); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +35%

Fleetwood Town HOME v Shrewsbury AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Fleetwood Town 1.86 – 1.20 Shrewsbury
Thin data: Fleetwood Town 12 matches, Shrewsbury 10 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Fleetwood Town 58% · draw 19% · Shrewsbury 23%
Fleetwood Town win
58%
Draw
19%
Shrewsbury win
23%
Fleetwood Town or draw
77%
either team
81%
draw or Shrewsbury
42%
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
BTTS Yes
56%
BTTS No
44%
Fleetwood Town clean sheet
30%
Shrewsbury clean sheet
16%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
Fleetwood TownDrawShrewsbury
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half39.9%——37.7%——22.4%——
2nd half43.9%——32.2%——23.9%——
Correlated combinations
  • Shrewsbury win + Shrewsbury clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.43); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +179%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.31); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
  • Fleetwood Town win + Fleetwood Town clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.00); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +59%

Blackburn HOME v Sheffield Utd AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Blackburn 1.25 – 1.22 Sheffield Utd
Blackburn 37% · draw 29% · Sheffield Utd 34%
Blackburn win
37%
Draw
29%
Sheffield Utd win
34%
Blackburn or draw
66%
either team
71%
draw or Sheffield Utd
63%
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
BTTS Yes
50%
BTTS No
50%
Blackburn clean sheet
30%
Sheffield Utd clean sheet
29%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
BlackburnDrawSheffield Utd
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half28.7%——43.7%——27.6%——
2nd half31.7%——37.8%——30.5%——
Correlated combinations
  • Sheffield Utd win + Sheffield Utd clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +96%
  • Blackburn win + Blackburn clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.82); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

Sheffield Wednesday HOME v Wolves AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Sheffield Wednesday 0.95 – 1.67 Wolves
Sheffield Wednesday 22% · draw 28% · Wolves 50%
Sheffield Wed… win
22%
Draw
28%
Wolves win
50%
Sheffield Wed… or draw
50%
either team
72%
draw or Wolves
78%
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
BTTS Yes
50%
BTTS No
50%
Sheffield Wed… clean sheet
19%
Wolves clean sheet
39%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 12% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%
Half-time markets
Sheffield WednesdayDrawWolves
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half19.1%——41.2%——39.6%——
2nd half20.6%——35.3%——44.1%——
Correlated combinations
  • Sheffield Wed… win + Sheffield Wed… clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.97); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +183%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +54%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.11); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%

Southampton HOME v West Ham AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Southampton 1.55 – 1.54 West Ham
Southampton 44% · draw 24% · West Ham 32%
Southampton win
44%
Draw
24%
West Ham win
32%
Southampton or draw
68%
either team
76%
draw or West Ham
56%
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
BTTS Yes
58%
BTTS No
42%
Southampton clean sheet
21%
West Ham clean sheet
21%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%
Half-time markets
SouthamptonDrawWest Ham
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half31.0%——38.2%——30.8%——
2nd half33.7%——32.8%——33.5%——
Correlated combinations
  • West Ham win + West Ham clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.11); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +105%
  • Southampton win + Southampton clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.06); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +104%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%

Ipswich HOME v Leicester AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Ipswich 1.88 – 1.20 Leicester
Ipswich 52% · draw 21% · Leicester 26%
Ipswich win
52%
Draw
21%
Leicester win
26%
Ipswich or draw
74%
either team
79%
draw or Leicester
48%
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
BTTS Yes
56%
BTTS No
44%
Ipswich clean sheet
30%
Leicester clean sheet
15%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
IpswichDrawLeicester
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half40.4%——37.5%——22.2%——
2nd half44.4%——32.0%——23.6%——
Correlated combinations
  • Leicester win + Leicester clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.68); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +183%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +82%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%
  • Ipswich win + Ipswich clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +58%

Cambridge United HOME v Millwall AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Cambridge United 1.28 – 1.00 Millwall
Thin data: Cambridge United 13 matches, Millwall 339 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Cambridge United 34% · draw 29% · Millwall 37%
Cambridge Uni… win
34%
Draw
29%
Millwall win
37%
Cambridge Uni… or draw
63%
either team
71%
draw or Millwall
66%
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
BTTS Yes
47%
BTTS No
53%
Cambridge Uni… clean sheet
37%
Millwall clean sheet
28%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
Cambridge UnitedDrawMillwall
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half31.3%——45.6%——23.1%——
2nd half34.9%——39.6%——25.5%——
Correlated combinations
  • Millwall win + Millwall clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.80); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +115%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +77%
  • Cambridge Uni… win + Cambridge Uni… clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.84); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +68%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.14); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +44%

Blackpool HOME v Lincoln AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Blackpool 1.22 – 1.31 Lincoln
Thin data: Blackpool 103 matches, Lincoln 17 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Blackpool 32% · draw 29% · Lincoln 39%
Blackpool win
32%
Draw
29%
Lincoln win
39%
Blackpool or draw
61%
either team
71%
draw or Lincoln
68%
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
BTTS Yes
51%
BTTS No
49%
Blackpool clean sheet
27%
Lincoln clean sheet
30%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 0–0 8%
Half-time markets
BlackpoolDrawLincoln
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half27.2%——43.1%——29.8%——
2nd half29.9%——37.2%——32.9%——
Correlated combinations
  • Blackpool win + Blackpool clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
  • Lincoln win + Lincoln clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.73); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +87%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%

Barnsley HOME v Crewe AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Barnsley 1.45 – 1.38 Crewe
Thin data: Barnsley 154 matches, Crewe 10 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Barnsley 39% · draw 29% · Crewe 32%
Barnsley win
39%
Draw
29%
Crewe win
32%
Barnsley or draw
68%
either team
71%
draw or Crewe
61%
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
BTTS Yes
55%
BTTS No
45%
Barnsley clean sheet
25%
Crewe clean sheet
24%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%
Half-time markets
BarnsleyDrawCrewe
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half30.8%——40.3%——28.9%——
2nd half33.8%——34.7%——31.6%——
Correlated combinations
  • Crewe win + Crewe clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.81); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
  • Barnsley win + Barnsley clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.30); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +74%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%

Stevenage HOME v Reading AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Stevenage 1.69 – 1.32 Reading
Thin data: Stevenage 11 matches, Reading 197 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Stevenage 37% · draw 28% · Reading 35%
Stevenage win
37%
Draw
28%
Reading win
35%
Stevenage or draw
65%
either team
72%
draw or Reading
63%
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
BTTS Yes
57%
BTTS No
43%
Stevenage clean sheet
27%
Reading clean sheet
19%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%
Half-time markets
StevenageDrawReading
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half35.7%——38.6%——25.8%——
2nd half39.1%——33.1%——27.8%——
Correlated combinations
  • Reading win + Reading clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.56); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.25); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +83%
  • Stevenage win + Stevenage clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +76%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.01); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +61%

Birmingham HOME v Brentford AWAY

19:00 · EFL · expected goals Birmingham 0.96 – 1.79 Brentford
Birmingham 21% · draw 27% · Brentford 52%
Birmingham win
21%
Draw
27%
Brentford win
52%
Birmingham or draw
48%
either team
73%
draw or Brentford
79%
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
BTTS Yes
51%
BTTS No
49%
Birmingham clean sheet
17%
Brentford clean sheet
38%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 0–1 11% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%
Half-time markets
BirminghamDrawBrentford
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half18.5%——39.8%——41.7%——
2nd half19.8%——33.9%——46.4%——
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +59%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.54); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +58%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +50%
  • Brentford win + Brentford clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +46%

Nottingham Forest HOME v Leeds AWAY

19:00 · EFL · expected goals Nottingham Forest 1.51 – 1.13 Leeds
Nottingham Forest 47% · draw 25% · Leeds 28%
Nottingham Fo… win
47%
Draw
25%
Leeds win
28%
Nottingham Fo… or draw
72%
either team
75%
draw or Leeds
53%
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
BTTS Yes
52%
BTTS No
48%
Nottingham Fo… clean sheet
32%
Leeds clean sheet
22%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
Nottingham ForestDrawLeeds
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half34.6%——41.8%——23.7%——
2nd half38.3%——36.0%——25.7%——
Correlated combinations
  • Leeds win + Leeds clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.88); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +136%
  • Nottingham Fo… win + Nottingham Fo… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.02); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
PSL Premier Division (South Africa) (4 matches) all days →
Best value in PSL
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
Orlando PiratesvSekhukhune UnitedOrlando Pirates H67.1%1.49———
SiwelelevChippa UnitedSiwelele H46.7%2.14———
Kruger UnitedvDurban CityKruger United H39.1%2.56———
Marumo GallantsvTS GalaxyTS Galaxy A37.3%2.68———
Kruger UnitedvDurban CityDurban City A33.2%3.01———
Marumo GallantsvTS GalaxyMarumo Gallants H31.5%3.17———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Siwelele HOME v Chippa United AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Siwelele 1.25 – 0.78 Chippa United
Siwelele 47% · draw 30% · Chippa United 24%
Siwelele win
47%
Draw
30%
Chippa United win
24%
Siwelele or draw
76%
either team
70%
draw or Chippa United
53%
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
BTTS Yes
43%
BTTS No
57%
Siwelele clean sheet
46%
Chippa United clean sheet
29%
Total Odd
48%
Total Even
52%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 16% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
SiweleleDrawChippa United
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half33.2%——48.3%——18.4%——
2nd half37.5%——42.1%——20.4%——
Correlated combinations
  • Chippa United win + Chippa United clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.68); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +100%
  • Siwelele win + Siwelele clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +49%
  • Siwelele win + Over 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.80); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +33%

Marumo Gallants HOME v TS Galaxy AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Marumo Gallants 1.06 – 1.11 TS Galaxy
Marumo Gallants 32% · draw 31% · TS Galaxy 37%
Marumo Gallan… win
32%
Draw
31%
TS Galaxy win
37%
Marumo Gallan… or draw
63%
either team
69%
draw or TS Galaxy
68%
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
BTTS Yes
46%
BTTS No
54%
Marumo Gallan… clean sheet
33%
TS Galaxy clean sheet
35%
Total Odd
48%
Total Even
52%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 12% · 1–0 12%
Half-time markets
Marumo GallantsDrawTS Galaxy
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half25.6%——47.1%——27.3%——
2nd half28.5%——41.0%——30.4%——
Correlated combinations
  • Marumo Gallan… win + Marumo Gallan… clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.75); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.30); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
  • TS Galaxy win + TS Galaxy clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.37); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +82%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 49% (fair 2.03); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +40%

Kruger United HOME v Durban City AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Kruger United 1.17 – 1.09 Durban City
Kruger United 39% · draw 28% · Durban City 33%
Kruger United win
39%
Draw
28%
Durban City win
33%
Kruger United or draw
67%
either team
72%
draw or Durban City
61%
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
BTTS Yes
48%
BTTS No
52%
Kruger United clean sheet
34%
Durban City clean sheet
31%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–1 11% · 0–0 11%
Half-time markets
Kruger UnitedDrawDurban City
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half28.2%——46.0%——25.8%——
2nd half31.4%——40.0%——28.7%——
Correlated combinations
  • Durban City win + Durban City clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.95); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
  • Kruger United win + Kruger United clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.40); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +82%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.09); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.13); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +44%

Orlando Pirates HOME v Sekhukhune United AWAY

17:30 · PSL · expected goals Orlando Pirates 1.81 – 0.66 Sekhukhune United
Orlando Pirates 67% · draw 21% · Sekhukhune United 12%
Orlando Pirat… win
67%
Draw
21%
Sekhukhune Un… win
12%
Orlando Pirat… or draw
88%
either team
79%
draw or Sekhukhune Un…
33%
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
BTTS Yes
44%
BTTS No
56%
Orlando Pirat… clean sheet
52%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
16%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 2–0 14% · 1–1 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
Orlando PiratesDrawSekhukhune United
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half45.8%——41.3%——12.9%——
2nd half51.4%——34.9%——13.7%——
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +66%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.18); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.23); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +37%
  • Orlando Pirat… win + Orlando Pirat… clean sheet — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +28%
SP1 La Liga (Spain) (1 match) all days →
Best value in SP1
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
ValenciavReal BetisReal Betis A36.0%2.78———
ValenciavReal BetisValencia H36.0%2.78———
ValenciavReal BetisDraw28.0%3.57———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Valencia HOME v Real Betis AWAY

19:00 · SP1 · expected goals Valencia 1.22 – 1.32 Real Betis
Valencia 36% · draw 28% · Real Betis 36%
Valencia win
36%
Draw
28%
Real Betis win
36%
Valencia or draw
64%
either team
72%
draw or Real Betis
64%
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
BTTS Yes
51%
BTTS No
49%
Valencia clean sheet
27%
Real Betis clean sheet
30%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 8%
Half-time markets
ValenciaDrawReal Betis
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half27.0%——43.0%——30.0%——
2nd half29.7%——37.2%——33.1%——
Correlated combinations
  • Valencia win + Valencia clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +104%
  • Real Betis win + Real Betis clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.48); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%
UCL UEFA Champions League (Europe) (3 matches) all days →
Best value in UCL
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
Bodo/GlimtvNEC NijmegenBodo/Glimt H56.8%1.76———
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaSabah FA H thin data38.7%2.58———
Lask LinzvCelticCeltic A38.6%2.59———
Lask LinzvCelticLask Linz H37.6%2.66———
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva A thin data33.4%2.99———
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer ShevaDraw thin data27.9%3.58———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Sabah FA HOME v Hapoel Beer Sheva AWAY

16:45 · UCL · expected goals Sabah FA 1.34 – 1.14 Hapoel Beer Sheva
Thin data: Sabah FA 14 matches, Hapoel Beer Sheva 48 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Sabah FA 39% · draw 28% · Hapoel Beer Sheva 33%
Sabah FA win
39%
Draw
28%
Hapoel Beer S… win
33%
Sabah FA or draw
67%
either team
72%
draw or Hapoel Beer S…
61%
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
BTTS Yes
50%
BTTS No
50%
Sabah FA clean sheet
32%
Hapoel Beer S… clean sheet
26%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
Sabah FADrawHapoel Beer Sheva
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half31.1%——43.6%——25.3%——
2nd half34.5%——37.7%——27.8%——
Correlated combinations
  • Hapoel Beer S… win + Hapoel Beer S… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.73); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +112%
  • Sabah FA win + Sabah FA clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

Lask Linz HOME v Celtic AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Lask Linz 1.39 – 1.73 Celtic
Lask Linz 38% · draw 24% · Celtic 39%
Lask Linz win
38%
Draw
24%
Celtic win
39%
Lask Linz or draw
61%
either team
76%
draw or Celtic
62%
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
BTTS No
42%
Lask Linz clean sheet
18%
Celtic clean sheet
25%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 7% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
Lask LinzDrawCeltic
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half26.5%——37.7%——35.8%——
2nd half28.6%——32.3%——39.1%——
Correlated combinations
  • Lask Linz win + Lask Linz clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.74); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +139%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.49); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
  • Celtic win + Celtic clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.96); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +79%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%

Bodo/Glimt HOME v NEC Nijmegen AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Bodo/Glimt 2.53 – 1.29 NEC Nijmegen
Bodo/Glimt 57% · draw 22% · NEC Nijmegen 21%
Bodo/Glimt win
57%
Draw
22%
NEC Nijmegen win
21%
Bodo/Glimt or draw
79%
either team
78%
draw or NEC Nijmegen
43%
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
53%
Under 3.5
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
BTTS No
39%
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet
28%
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
8%
Total Odd
50%
Total Even
50%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 3–1 8% · 1–1 7% · 2–0 7%
Half-time markets
Bodo/GlimtDrawNEC Nijmegen
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half49.4%——31.6%——19.0%——
2nd half53.9%——26.5%——19.6%——
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.20); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +118%
  • Bodo/Glimt win + Bodo/Glimt clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +42%
  • Draw + Under 4.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +29%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 59% (fair 1.68); naive multiplication would say 49%, off by +21%