Predictions — 2026-08-20

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

SP1 1 UECL 21 UEL 12

Best value today across all competitions, ranked by expected value rather than by how likely they are to win

League	Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Beşiktaş H thin data	74.3%	1.35	—	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Rangers H thin data	71.8%	1.39	—	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Twente H	70.5%	1.42	—	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	SC Braga H	64.7%	1.55	—	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Jagiellonia H thin data	63.9%	1.57	—	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	FC Midtjylland H	61.2%	1.64	—	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Benfica H	60.5%	1.65	—	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Mjallby AIF H	59.0%	1.70	—	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	FC Lugano H	58.4%	1.71	—	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Heart Of Midlothian H	57.7%	1.73	—	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Rayo Vallecano H	56.3%	1.78	—	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	FC Copenhagen A thin data	56.1%	1.78	—	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Universitatea Craiova H thin data	54.3%	1.84	—	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Lech Poznan H	53.4%	1.87	—	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Vikingur Reykjavik H	52.2%	1.92	—	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	PAOK H	51.2%	1.95	—	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Getafe H	48.3%	2.07	—	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Trabzonspor H	47.1%	2.12	—	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Drita H thin data	45.9%	2.18	—	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Raków Częstochowa A thin data	45.8%	2.19	—	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	KI Klaksvik H	45.3%	2.21	—	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Brighton A	44.5%	2.25	—	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	FC Nordsjaelland H	44.3%	2.26	—	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Gent H	43.1%	2.32	—	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	OFI H	43.0%	2.33	—	—	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, ranked by expected value

Kept separate from the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that, books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has further to travel.

How much this model actually knows about goals. Measured on out-of-fold predictions during training, not on the fixtures below:

Totals: 0.6103 log loss vs 0.6920 for always predicting the base rate — clearly better than the base rate out of sample. Predictions are shrunk toward the base rate (T=1.06) because the raw model was overconfident.
BTTS: 0.6886 log loss vs 0.6914 for always predicting the base rate — barely better than the base rate out of sample. Predictions are shrunk toward the base rate (T=1.56) because the raw model was overconfident.

No goal markets priced. These need over/under and both-teams-to-score odds, which only arrive with --odds.

Same-match combinations priced from the joint distribution, so correlation is handled correctly

The vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.

Match	Combination	Model	Fair	vs naive	Book	EV
Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Away + Away clean sheet	11.5%	8.71	+178%	—	—
FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Away + Away clean sheet	11.6%	8.61	+172%	—	—
FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Away + Away clean sheet	11.5%	8.72	+163%	—	—
Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Home + Home clean sheet	12.1%	8.30	+160%	—	—
Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Away + Away clean sheet	12.7%	7.86	+157%	—	—
Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Away + Away clean sheet	13.1%	7.64	+155%	—	—
TromsovBrighton	Home + Home clean sheet	13.0%	7.69	+152%	—	—
Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Away + Away clean sheet	10.9%	9.21	+150%	—	—
GentvHibernian	Away + Away clean sheet	13.3%	7.52	+146%	—	—
TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Away + Away clean sheet	13.4%	7.49	+140%	—	—
DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Away + Away clean sheet	14.0%	7.17	+134%	—	—
FC SionvAjax	Home + Home clean sheet	14.5%	6.90	+133%	—	—
GetafevFK Partizan	Away + Away clean sheet	15.1%	6.62	+131%	—	—
Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Away + Away clean sheet	15.3%	6.52	+130%	—	—
Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Away + Away clean sheet	15.2%	6.57	+127%	—	—
Lech PoznanvFC Thun	BTTS No + Under 2.5	22.2%	4.51	+123%	—	—
KI KlaksvikvRiga	Away + Away clean sheet	16.4%	6.09	+120%	—	—
Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Away + Away clean sheet	17.1%	5.85	+116%	—	—
HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Home + Home clean sheet	18.1%	5.52	+108%	—	—
Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Home + Home clean sheet	17.8%	5.62	+108%	—	—

Long builders 10+ legs, 1,000+ fair odds, reusing the same matches

Read the odds before the legs. Fair odds of 1,000 means this wins about once in a thousand attempts. That is not pessimism about the model, it is what the number says, and stacking more legs can only make it rarer. Nothing in this section is a recommendation.

Legs from the same match are combined by intersecting the score matrix, so their correlation is exact. Legs from different matches are multiplied, which is correct because they are independent. Most bookmakers' builders multiply everything, and on correlated legs that is wrong by a factor shown against each slip below — typically 2 to 3x here.
Slips are ranked by true probability, not by that factor. At a fixed odds target the most mispriced slip is simply the one stacking the most redundant legs, which is a worse bet dressed up; the least unlikely route to the target is the useful one. Leg groups that collapse to a single selection are excluded, and any that survive are flagged.

Corners a different distribution and a different estimator

Corners are not Poisson - variance over mean is 1.17 on the total against 0.99 for goals - so these come from a negative binomial. Using the goal machinery would run about two points light on over 13.5, always in the same direction. Reusing the Dixon-Coles team ratings was tried too and finished worse than predicting the league average; these rates are time-weighted rolling means instead.
Out of sample on 27,773 matches the totals beat the base rate by 0.0108 of log loss and most corners by 0.0407, at 58.0% accuracy against 53.6%. Most corners is the stronger market by some distance - corner dominance is a stable team property, the number of corners in a match much less so. No bookmaker corner prices were fetched, so these are model numbers with no edge attached.

League	Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV
UECL	GentvHibernian	More than 4 corners most corners	96.9%	1.01	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	More than 4 corners most corners	96.4%	1.01	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	More than 4 corners most corners	96.2%	1.02	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	More than 4 corners most corners	96.1%	1.02	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	More than 4 corners most corners	95.9%	1.02	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	More than 4 corners most corners	95.9%	1.02	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	More than 4 corners most corners	95.9%	1.02	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	More than 4 corners most corners	95.9%	1.02	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	More than 4 corners most corners	95.8%	1.02	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	More than 4 corners most corners	95.6%	1.02	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	More than 4 corners most corners	95.6%	1.02	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	More than 4 corners most corners	95.5%	1.02	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	More than 4 corners most corners	95.5%	1.02	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	More than 4 corners most corners	95.4%	1.02	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	More than 4 corners most corners	94.7%	1.02	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	More than 4 corners most corners	94.7%	1.02	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	More than 4 corners most corners	94.2%	1.03	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	More than 4 corners most corners	94.1%	1.03	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	More than 4 corners most corners	94.1%	1.03	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	More than 4 corners most corners	93.8%	1.03	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	More than 4 corners most corners	93.6%	1.03	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	More than 4 corners most corners	93.4%	1.03	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Under13.5	93.2%	1.07	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	More than 4 corners most corners	93.1%	1.03	—	—

Fixtures where either side has fewer than 10 matches of corner history are absent rather than averaged, and four competitions in this dataset carry no corner data at all. Corner totals and corner results are never combined with each other: they come from separate estimators with no joint distribution between them.

Odd / even total goals offered, not recommended

Across the 34 fixtures on this page the model puts odd between 48.3% and 49.4% - a spread of 1.1 points. That is not a limitation of this model, it is the arithmetic: for a total with mean L the chance of an odd number is (1 - e^-2L) / 2, which is 49.1% at a 2.0-goal match and 50.0% at 3.5. Measured on 65,170 real matches the split is 49.90 / 50.10.
A bookmaker's margin on this market is several times the whole range the model can express, so there is no price at which the numbers below constitute an edge. They are here for completeness.

Over/under builder pick a side and a line, or let the model choose

Out of fold during training this market scored 0.6103 against 0.6920 for always predicting the base rate, over 97,770 observations. That is the reason this builder exists for totals and not for every market on the page.

Side Line Legs Min confidence 70% Rank by value, not confidence

League	Match	Pick	Confidence	Fair	Book	EV
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Over0.5	96.3%	1.04	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Over0.5	96.2%	1.04	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Over0.5	94.7%	1.06	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Over0.5 thin data	94.5%	1.06	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Over0.5	94.1%	1.06	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Over0.5	94.0%	1.06	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Over0.5	93.9%	1.06	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Over0.5 thin data	93.9%	1.07	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Over0.5	93.6%	1.07	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Over0.5 thin data	93.4%	1.07	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Over0.5 thin data	93.3%	1.07	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Over0.5	92.6%	1.08	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Over0.5	92.4%	1.08	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Over0.5	92.2%	1.09	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Over0.5 thin data	92.1%	1.09	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Over0.5	92.1%	1.09	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Over0.5	92.0%	1.09	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Over0.5 thin data	92.0%	1.09	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Over0.5	91.9%	1.09	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Over0.5	91.8%	1.09	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Over0.5	91.5%	1.09	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Over0.5 thin data	90.9%	1.10	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Over0.5	90.6%	1.10	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Over0.5	90.6%	1.10	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Over0.5	90.5%	1.11	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Over0.5	90.2%	1.11	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Over0.5 thin data	90.1%	1.11	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Over0.5	89.8%	1.11	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Over0.5	89.8%	1.11	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Over1.5	87.5%	1.14	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Over1.5	87.2%	1.15	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Over0.5	86.1%	1.16	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Over0.5	85.9%	1.16	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Over0.5 thin data	85.9%	1.16	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Over0.5	85.8%	1.17	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Over0.5	85.0%	1.18	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Under3.5	83.4%	1.20	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Over1.5	82.8%	1.21	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Over1.5 thin data	82.4%	1.21	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Under3.5	82.2%	1.22	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Under3.5 thin data	82.2%	1.22	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Under3.5	82.1%	1.22	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Under3.5	81.8%	1.22	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Over1.5	81.5%	1.23	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Over1.5	81.0%	1.23	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Over1.5 thin data	80.7%	1.24	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Over1.5	80.7%	1.24	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Over1.5	80.2%	1.25	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Over1.5 thin data	79.7%	1.26	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Over1.5 thin data	79.4%	1.26	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Over1.5	77.4%	1.29	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Over1.5	76.9%	1.30	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Over1.5	76.3%	1.31	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Over1.5	76.2%	1.31	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Over1.5 thin data	76.1%	1.31	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Over1.5	76.0%	1.32	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Over1.5 thin data	75.9%	1.32	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Over1.5	75.9%	1.32	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Over1.5	75.3%	1.33	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Under3.5	75.0%	1.33	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Under3.5	74.9%	1.33	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Over1.5	74.8%	1.34	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Under3.5 thin data	74.3%	1.35	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Under3.5	74.1%	1.35	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Under3.5	73.6%	1.36	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Under3.5	73.2%	1.37	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Under3.5	73.2%	1.37	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Over1.5 thin data	73.1%	1.37	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Under3.5 thin data	72.6%	1.38	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Over1.5	72.5%	1.38	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Over1.5	72.5%	1.38	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Over1.5	72.1%	1.39	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Over1.5	71.6%	1.40	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Over1.5 thin data	71.4%	1.40	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Over1.5	70.8%	1.41	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Under3.5	70.8%	1.41	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Over1.5	70.7%	1.41	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Under3.5	70.1%	1.43	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Under3.5	69.6%	1.44	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Under3.5 thin data	69.5%	1.44	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Under3.5	69.4%	1.44	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Under3.5 thin data	69.3%	1.44	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Under3.5	69.2%	1.45	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Under3.5	69.1%	1.45	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Under3.5	68.4%	1.46	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Under3.5	67.8%	1.48	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Under3.5 thin data	65.2%	1.53	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Under3.5 thin data	64.8%	1.54	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Under3.5	64.1%	1.56	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Over2.5	64.0%	1.56	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Over2.5	63.7%	1.57	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Under3.5 thin data	63.3%	1.58	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Under3.5	63.3%	1.58	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Under3.5	62.9%	1.59	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Under2.5	62.7%	1.59	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Over1.5	62.6%	1.60	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Under3.5	62.2%	1.61	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Over1.5	62.2%	1.61	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Over1.5 thin data	62.1%	1.61	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Over1.5	62.0%	1.61	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Under2.5	61.4%	1.63	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Under2.5 thin data	61.4%	1.63	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Under2.5	61.3%	1.63	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Under2.5	60.9%	1.64	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Under3.5 thin data	60.9%	1.64	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Over1.5	60.3%	1.66	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Under3.5	60.2%	1.66	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Over2.5	58.2%	1.72	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Over2.5 thin data	57.6%	1.73	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Over2.5	56.6%	1.77	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Over2.5	56.0%	1.78	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Over2.5	55.7%	1.79	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Over2.5 thin data	55.7%	1.80	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Over2.5	55.1%	1.82	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Over2.5 thin data	54.5%	1.83	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Under2.5	54.2%	1.85	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Over2.5 thin data	54.2%	1.85	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Under2.5	54.1%	1.85	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Under2.5 thin data	53.6%	1.87	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Under2.5	53.4%	1.87	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Under2.5	52.9%	1.89	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Under3.5	52.7%	1.90	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Under2.5	52.5%	1.90	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Under2.5	52.5%	1.90	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Under3.5	52.2%	1.91	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Over2.5	52.1%	1.92	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Under2.5 thin data	52.0%	1.92	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Over2.5	51.6%	1.94	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Over2.5	51.1%	1.96	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Over2.5	50.9%	1.96	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Over2.5 thin data	50.9%	1.97	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Over2.5	50.8%	1.97	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Over2.5 thin data	50.7%	1.97	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Over2.5	50.6%	1.98	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Under2.5	50.4%	1.98	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Over2.5	50.1%	1.99	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Under2.5	49.9%	2.01	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Over2.5	49.6%	2.02	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Under2.5	49.4%	2.02	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Under2.5 thin data	49.3%	2.03	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Under2.5	49.2%	2.03	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Under2.5 thin data	49.1%	2.04	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Under2.5	49.1%	2.04	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Under2.5	48.9%	2.04	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Under2.5	48.4%	2.07	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Over2.5 thin data	48.0%	2.08	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Under2.5	47.9%	2.09	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Over3.5	47.8%	2.09	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Over2.5	47.5%	2.11	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Over2.5	47.5%	2.11	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Over3.5	47.3%	2.11	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Over2.5	47.1%	2.12	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Over2.5	46.6%	2.15	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Over2.5 thin data	46.4%	2.15	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Over2.5	45.9%	2.18	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Under2.5 thin data	45.8%	2.18	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Over2.5	45.8%	2.18	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Under2.5 thin data	45.5%	2.20	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Under2.5	44.9%	2.23	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Under2.5 thin data	44.3%	2.26	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Under2.5	44.3%	2.26	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Under2.5	44.0%	2.27	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Under2.5	43.4%	2.30	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Under2.5 thin data	42.4%	2.36	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Under2.5	41.8%	2.39	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Over3.5	39.8%	2.51	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Under1.5	39.7%	2.52	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Over3.5 thin data	39.1%	2.55	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Over2.5	39.1%	2.56	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Over2.5	38.7%	2.58	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Over2.5 thin data	38.6%	2.59	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Over2.5	38.6%	2.59	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Under1.5	38.0%	2.63	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Under1.5 thin data	37.9%	2.64	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Under1.5	37.8%	2.64	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Over3.5	37.8%	2.65	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Under1.5	37.4%	2.68	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Over2.5	37.3%	2.68	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Over3.5	37.1%	2.70	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Over3.5	36.7%	2.73	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Over3.5 thin data	36.7%	2.73	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Under2.5	36.3%	2.76	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Under2.5	36.0%	2.78	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Over3.5	35.9%	2.79	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Over3.5 thin data	35.2%	2.84	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Over3.5 thin data	34.8%	2.88	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Over3.5	32.2%	3.10	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Over3.5	31.6%	3.16	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Over3.5	30.9%	3.23	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Over3.5	30.8%	3.25	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Over3.5 thin data	30.7%	3.25	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Over3.5	30.6%	3.26	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Over3.5 thin data	30.5%	3.28	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Over3.5	30.4%	3.29	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Over3.5	29.9%	3.35	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Under1.5	29.3%	3.41	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Over3.5	29.2%	3.42	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Under1.5	29.2%	3.42	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Under1.5 thin data	28.6%	3.50	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Under1.5	28.4%	3.52	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Under1.5	27.9%	3.59	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Under1.5	27.5%	3.64	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Under1.5	27.5%	3.64	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Over3.5 thin data	27.4%	3.65	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Under1.5 thin data	26.9%	3.71	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Over3.5	26.8%	3.73	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Over3.5	26.8%	3.73	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Over3.5	26.4%	3.79	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Over3.5	25.9%	3.87	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Over3.5 thin data	25.7%	3.90	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Under1.5	25.2%	3.97	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Over3.5	25.1%	3.99	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Over3.5	25.0%	4.00	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Under1.5	24.7%	4.05	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Under1.5	24.1%	4.14	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Under1.5 thin data	24.1%	4.16	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Under1.5	24.0%	4.17	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Under1.5 thin data	23.9%	4.18	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Under1.5	23.8%	4.20	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Under1.5	23.7%	4.22	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Under1.5	23.1%	4.32	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Under1.5	22.6%	4.42	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Under1.5 thin data	20.6%	4.85	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Under1.5 thin data	20.3%	4.92	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Under1.5	19.8%	5.05	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Under1.5	19.3%	5.19	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Under1.5 thin data	19.3%	5.19	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Under1.5	19.0%	5.27	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Under1.5	18.5%	5.41	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Over3.5	18.2%	5.49	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Over3.5	17.9%	5.59	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Over3.5 thin data	17.8%	5.61	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Over3.5	17.8%	5.62	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Under1.5 thin data	17.6%	5.69	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Under1.5	17.2%	5.83	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Over3.5	16.6%	6.02	—	—
UECL	GetafevFK Partizan	Under0.5	15.0%	6.68	—	—
UEL	FK Crvena ZvezdavPlzen	Under0.5	14.2%	7.06	—	—
UECL	HNK Hajduk SplitvRaków Częstochowa	Under0.5 thin data	14.1%	7.08	—	—
UECL	Shamrock RoversvKuPS	Under0.5	14.1%	7.10	—	—
SP1	Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Under0.5	13.9%	7.22	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Under1.5	12.8%	7.84	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Under1.5	12.5%	7.97	—	—
UEL	St. TruidenvOmonia Nicosia	Under0.5	10.2%	9.81	—	—
UECL	KI KlaksvikvRiga	Under0.5	10.2%	9.85	—	—
UECL	Dinamo TiranavPafos	Under0.5 thin data	9.9%	10.11	—	—
UECL	Lincoln Red Imps FCvLarne	Under0.5	9.8%	10.20	—	—
UECL	Vikingur ReykjavikvBorac Banja Luka	Under0.5	9.5%	10.48	—	—
UEL	Kairat AlmatyvAnderlecht	Under0.5	9.4%	10.63	—	—
UECL	Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Under0.5	9.4%	10.65	—	—
UEL	JagielloniavSaburtalo	Under0.5 thin data	9.1%	10.96	—	—
UEL	Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Under0.5	8.5%	11.83	—	—
UECL	FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	Under0.5	8.2%	12.21	—	—
UECL	MotherwellvSC Freiburg	Under0.5	8.1%	12.42	—	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvLillestrom	Under0.5 thin data	8.0%	12.48	—	—
UECL	TromsovBrighton	Under0.5	8.0%	12.56	—	—
UEL	OFIvCSKA Sofia	Under0.5	7.9%	12.63	—	—
UEL	BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Under0.5 thin data	7.9%	12.66	—	—
UECL	FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	Under0.5	7.8%	12.74	—	—
UECL	FC SionvAjax	Under0.5	7.6%	13.09	—	—
UECL	GentvHibernian	Under0.5	7.4%	13.44	—	—
UECL	Inter TurkuvFC Copenhagen	Under0.5 thin data	6.7%	15.00	—	—
UECL	DritavInter Club d'Escaldes	Under0.5 thin data	6.6%	15.25	—	—
UEL	TrabzonsporvFerencvarosi TC	Under0.5	6.4%	15.72	—	—
UEL	Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Under0.5 thin data	6.1%	16.32	—	—
UEL	BenficavAarhus	Under0.5	6.1%	16.45	—	—
UECL	PAOKvBrann	Under0.5	6.0%	16.64	—	—
UECL	FC NordsjaellandvFC ST. Gallen	Under0.5	5.9%	17.07	—	—
UECL	RangersvFK Jablonec	Under0.5 thin data	5.5%	18.25	—	—
UECL	SC BragavAustria Vienna	Under0.5	5.3%	18.85	—	—
UEL	Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Under0.5	3.8%	25.99	—	—
UECL	TwentevQarabag	Under0.5	3.7%	26.69	—	—

Both sides of every line are listed, so choosing the side the model dislikes is allowed — it just gives you the complement, since Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 come from one distribution and sum to exactly one. Model's choice picks the line it is most confident about per fixture, marked best, which is rarely the 2.5 every coupon leads with: 2.5 sits nearest the median total, which is exactly where a goal model has least to say.

Whatever you choose, the slip takes one leg per fixture. Over 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 on the same match are not three bets — they nearly all win or lose together, and multiplying them would state a confidence the model does not have. Confidence is the calibrated model probability, not a price: a 4-leg slip at 80% a leg lands 41% of the time, and the margin still compounds at roughly 5% per leg.

Six-leg builder every leg above 50%, drawn from at least three different markets

What six legs actually means. The most likely slip below lands 41.4% of the time — it loses about 1 times for every time it wins, and the rest are longer than that. Each leg being above 50% does not make the slip likely; six coin flips are all individually likely to land heads-or-better and still rarely all do. The margin compounds too: at 5% a leg, about a quarter of fair value is gone before the model has been wrong about anything. This section exists because it was asked for, not because the maths recommends it.

Legs	Slip lands	Weakest leg	Fair	Book	EV	Margin cost
Twente v Qarabag — over 1.5 goals Beşiktaş v Kauno Žalgiris — Beşiktaş or draw (H) SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (1st half) Benfica v Aarhus — Benfica or draw (2nd half) Rangers v FK Jablonec — Rangers or draw (H) FC Midtjylland v HNK Rijeka — FC Midtjylland or draw (1st half) 1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals	41.4%	84%	2.4	—	—	−25%
Twente v Qarabag — over 1.5 goals Beşiktaş v Kauno Žalgiris — Beşiktaş or draw (H) SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (1st half) Benfica v Aarhus — Benfica or draw (2nd half) Getafe v FK Partizan — under 3.5 goals Rangers v FK Jablonec — Rangers or draw (H) 1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals	41.3%	83%	2.4	—	—	−25%
FC Lugano v Maccabi Tel Aviv — FC Lugano or draw (H) HNK Hajduk Split v Raków Częstochowa — under 3.5 goals Heart Of Midlothian v Rapid Vienna — Heart Of Midlothian or draw (H) Rayo Vallecano v Alaves — Rayo Vallecano or draw (1st half) Universitatea Craiova v Ararat-Armenia — Universitatea Craiova or draw (2nd half) Shamrock Rovers v KuPS — under 3.5 goals 1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals	28.6%	78%	3.5	—	—	−25%
Vikingur Reykjavik v Borac Banja Luka — Vikingur Reykjavik or draw (1st half) PAOK v Brann — PAOK or draw (2nd half) HNK Hajduk Split v Raków Częstochowa — under 3.5 goals Heart Of Midlothian v Rapid Vienna — Heart Of Midlothian or draw (H) Rayo Vallecano v Alaves — Rayo Vallecano or draw (1st half) Shamrock Rovers v KuPS — under 3.5 goals 1H, 1X2, 2H, Totals	28.3%	79%	3.5	—	—	−25%
Twente v Qarabag — over 1.5 goals Beşiktaş v Kauno Žalgiris — Beşiktaş or draw (H) SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (1st half) Getafe v FK Partizan — under 3.5 goals Rangers v FK Jablonec — Rangers or draw (H) FC Midtjylland v HNK Rijeka — FC Midtjylland or draw (1st half) 1H, 1X2, Totals	41.1%	83%	2.4	—	—	−25%

Legs come from different matches, so the probabilities do multiply — that part is honest. Margin cost is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg. Weakest leg is the one carrying the slip: a chain is only as good as that number, and it is the first thing a bookmaker chooses when they build these for you.

Accumulators shown with what they cost you

Legs from different matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything. Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a good idea.

Legs	N	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Margin cost
Beşiktaş v Kauno Žalgiris — Beşiktaş or draw (H) Rangers v FK Jablonec — Rangers or draw (H) thin data	2	79.3%	1.26	—	—	−9%
Beşiktaş v Kauno Žalgiris — Beşiktaş or draw (H) Twente v Qarabag — over 1.5 goals thin data	2	78.4%	1.28	—	—	−9%
Rangers v FK Jablonec — Rangers or draw (H) Twente v Qarabag — over 1.5 goals thin data	2	77.4%	1.29	—	—	−9%
Lech Poznan v FC Thun — over 1.5 goals SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (H)	2	75.0%	1.33	—	—	−9%
Lech Poznan v FC Thun — over 1.5 goals Jagiellonia v Saburtalo — Jagiellonia or draw (H) thin data	2	74.6%	1.34	—	—	−9%
SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (H) Jagiellonia v Saburtalo — Jagiellonia or draw (H) thin data	2	73.5%	1.36	—	—	−9%
SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (1st half) Benfica v Aarhus — Benfica or draw (1st half)	2	71.9%	1.39	—	—	−9%
SC Braga v Austria Vienna — SC Braga or draw (1st half) Twente v Qarabag — Twente or draw (H)	2	71.3%	1.40	—	—	−9%
Benfica v Aarhus — Benfica or draw (1st half) Twente v Qarabag — Twente or draw (H)	2	71.2%	1.40	—	—	−9%
Benfica v Aarhus — Benfica or draw (2nd half) FC Midtjylland v HNK Rijeka — FC Midtjylland or draw (H)	2	70.3%	1.42	—	—	−9%

By competition 34 fixtures across 3 competitions · 0/102 selections priced

SP1 La Liga (Spain) (1 match) all days →

Best value in SP1

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Rayo Vallecano H	56.3%	1.78	—	—	—
Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Draw	22.8%	4.39	—	—	—
Rayo VallecanovAlaves	Alaves A	20.9%	4.79	—	—	—

Rayo Vallecano HOME v Alaves AWAY

19:00 · SP1 · expected goals Rayo Vallecano 1.27 – 0.83 Alaves

Rayo Vallecano 56% · draw 23% · Alaves 21%

Rayo Vallecano win

56%

Draw

23%

Alaves win

21%

Rayo Vallecano or draw

79%

either team

77%

draw or Alaves

44%

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

BTTS Yes

44%

BTTS No

56%

Rayo Vallecano clean sheet

44%

Alaves clean sheet

28%

Total Odd

48%

Total Even

52%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 13% · 2–0 10%

Half-time markets

	Rayo Vallecano			Draw			Alaves
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	33.1%	—	—	47.5%	—	—	19.5%	—	—
2nd half	37.2%	—	—	41.3%	—	—	21.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Alaves win + Alaves clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.52); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +130%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +92%
Rayo Vallecano win + Rayo Vallecano clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.22); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +53%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.94); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%

UECL UEFA Europa Conference League (Europe) (21 matches) all days →

Best value in UECL

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
RangersvFK Jablonec	Rangers H thin data	71.8%	1.39	—	—	—
TwentevQarabag	Twente H	70.5%	1.42	—	—	—
SC BragavAustria Vienna	SC Braga H	64.7%	1.55	—	—	—
FC MidtjyllandvHNK Rijeka	FC Midtjylland H	61.2%	1.64	—	—	—
FC LuganovMaccabi Tel Aviv	FC Lugano H	58.4%	1.71	—	—	—
Heart Of MidlothianvRapid Vienna	Heart Of Midlothian H	57.7%	1.73	—	—	—

Inter Turku HOME v FC Copenhagen AWAY

16:00 · UECL · expected goals Inter Turku 1.19 – 1.72 FC Copenhagen

Thin data: Inter Turku 7 matches, FC Copenhagen 316 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Inter Turku 21% · draw 23% · FC Copenhagen 56%

Inter Turku win

21%

Draw

23%

FC Copenhagen win

56%

Inter Turku or draw

44%

either team

77%

draw or FC Copenhagen

79%

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

Inter Turku clean sheet

18%

FC Copenhagen clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%

Half-time markets

	Inter Turku			Draw			FC Copenhagen
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	23.2%	—	—	39.1%	—	—	37.8%	—	—
2nd half	24.9%	—	—	33.4%	—	—	41.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Inter Turku win + Inter Turku clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.30); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +160%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.06); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
FC Copenhagen win + FC Copenhagen clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.07); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.79); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%

Lincoln Red Imps FC HOME v Larne AWAY

16:00 · UECL · expected goals Lincoln Red Imps FC 1.31 – 1.18 Larne

Lincoln Red Imps FC 40% · draw 30% · Larne 30%

Lincoln Red I… win

40%

Draw

30%

Larne win

30%

Lincoln Red I… or draw

70%

either team

70%

draw or Larne

60%

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Lincoln Red I… clean sheet

31%

Larne clean sheet

27%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Lincoln Red Imps FC			Draw			Larne
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	30.1%	—	—	43.5%	—	—	26.5%	—	—
2nd half	33.3%	—	—	37.6%	—	—	29.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Larne win + Larne clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.44); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +105%
Lincoln Red I… win + Lincoln Red I… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +55%

Tromso HOME v Brighton AWAY

17:00 · UECL · expected goals Tromso 1.11 – 1.61 Brighton

Tromso 32% · draw 24% · Brighton 45%

Tromso win

32%

Draw

24%

Brighton win

45%

Tromso or draw

55%

either team

76%

draw or Brighton

68%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Tromso clean sheet

20%

Brighton clean sheet

33%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 9%

Half-time markets

	Tromso			Draw			Brighton
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	22.5%	—	—	40.8%	—	—	36.7%	—	—
2nd half	24.4%	—	—	35.0%	—	—	40.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Tromso win + Tromso clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.69); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +152%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
Brighton win + Brighton clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.84); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +62%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.23); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +53%

FC Nordsjaelland HOME v FC ST. Gallen AWAY

17:00 · UECL · expected goals FC Nordsjaelland 1.80 – 1.26 FC ST. Gallen

FC Nordsjaelland 44% · draw 27% · FC ST. Gallen 29%

FC Nordsjaell… win

44%

Draw

27%

FC ST. Gallen win

29%

FC Nordsjaell… or draw

71%

either team

73%

draw or FC ST. Gallen

56%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

BTTS Yes

57%

BTTS No

43%

FC Nordsjaell… clean sheet

28%

FC ST. Gallen clean sheet

16%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	FC Nordsjaelland			Draw			FC ST. Gallen
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	38.4%	—	—	37.9%	—	—	23.7%	—	—
2nd half	42.2%	—	—	32.4%	—	—	25.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

FC ST. Gallen win + FC ST. Gallen clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.72); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +163%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.33); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +84%
FC Nordsjaell… win + FC Nordsjaell… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.28); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +65%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.25); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%

FC Midtjylland HOME v HNK Rijeka AWAY

17:00 · UECL · expected goals FC Midtjylland 1.83 – 0.85 HNK Rijeka

FC Midtjylland 61% · draw 22% · HNK Rijeka 16%

FC Midtjylland win

61%

Draw

22%

HNK Rijeka win

16%

FC Midtjylland or draw

84%

either team

78%

draw or HNK Rijeka

39%

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

BTTS Yes

49%

BTTS No

51%

FC Midtjylland clean sheet

43%

HNK Rijeka clean sheet

16%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 2–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	FC Midtjylland			Draw			HNK Rijeka
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	43.6%	—	—	40.0%	—	—	16.4%	—	—
2nd half	48.6%	—	—	33.9%	—	—	17.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.49); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +54%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +51%
FC Midtjylland win + FC Midtjylland clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +38%

KI Klaksvik HOME v Riga AWAY

17:30 · UECL · expected goals KI Klaksvik 1.37 – 1.08 Riga

KI Klaksvik 45% · draw 28% · Riga 26%

KI Klaksvik win

45%

Draw

28%

Riga win

26%

KI Klaksvik or draw

74%

either team

72%

draw or Riga

55%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

KI Klaksvik clean sheet

34%

Riga clean sheet

25%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%

Half-time markets

	KI Klaksvik			Draw			Riga
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	32.3%	—	—	43.7%	—	—	24.0%	—	—
2nd half	35.9%	—	—	37.8%	—	—	26.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Riga win + Riga clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.09); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
KI Klaksvik win + KI Klaksvik clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.02); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +71%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

PAOK HOME v Brann AWAY

17:45 · UECL · expected goals PAOK 1.94 – 1.09 Brann

PAOK 51% · draw 25% · Brann 24%

PAOK win

51%

Draw

25%

Brann win

24%

PAOK or draw

76%

either team

75%

draw or Brann

49%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

PAOK clean sheet

34%

Brann clean sheet

14%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 9%

Half-time markets

	PAOK			Draw			Brann
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.8%	—	—	37.5%	—	—	19.7%	—	—
2nd half	47.2%	—	—	31.8%	—	—	20.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.21); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +74%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.36); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%
PAOK win + PAOK clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.50); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +49%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.15); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +40%

Vikingur Reykjavik HOME v Borac Banja Luka AWAY

18:00 · UECL · expected goals Vikingur Reykjavik 1.61 – 0.90 Borac Banja Luka

Vikingur Reykjavik 52% · draw 27% · Borac Banja Luka 21%

Vikingur Reyk… win

52%

Draw

27%

Borac Banja L… win

21%

Vikingur Reyk… or draw

79%

either team

73%

draw or Borac Banja L…

48%

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

BTTS Yes

49%

BTTS No

51%

Vikingur Reyk… clean sheet

41%

Borac Banja L… clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 9%

Half-time markets

	Vikingur Reykjavik			Draw			Borac Banja Luka
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	39.1%	—	—	42.3%	—	—	18.6%	—	—
2nd half	43.6%	—	—	36.3%	—	—	20.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Borac Banja L… win + Borac Banja L… clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.71); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +178%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +62%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +49%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.85); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +49%

Drita HOME v Inter Club d'Escaldes AWAY

18:00 · UECL · expected goals Drita 1.63 – 1.31 Inter Club d'Escaldes

Thin data: Drita 36 matches, Inter Club d'Escaldes 22 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Drita 46% · draw 28% · Inter Club d'Escaldes 27%

Drita win

46%

Draw

28%

Inter Club d'… win

27%

Drita or draw

73%

either team

72%

draw or Inter Club d'…

54%

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Drita clean sheet

27%

Inter Club d'… clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Drita			Draw			Inter Club d'Escaldes
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	34.8%	—	—	39.2%	—	—	26.0%	—	—
2nd half	38.2%	—	—	33.7%	—	—	28.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Inter Club d'… win + Inter Club d'… clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.17); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +134%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.12); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
Drita win + Drita clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.68); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +77%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.77); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%

Twente HOME v Qarabag AWAY

18:00 · UECL · expected goals Twente 2.29 – 1.27 Qarabag

Twente 71% · draw 14% · Qarabag 16%

Twente win

71%

Draw

14%

Qarabag win

16%

Twente or draw

84%

either team

86%

draw or Qarabag

29%

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

BTTS Yes

60%

BTTS No

40%

Twente clean sheet

28%

Qarabag clean sheet

10%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 7% · 3–1 7%

Half-time markets

	Twente			Draw			Qarabag
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	46.2%	—	—	33.6%	—	—	20.2%	—	—
2nd half	50.6%	—	—	28.3%	—	—	21.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.44); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +106%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 12% (fair 8.57); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +88%
Twente win + Twente clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +48%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 56% (fair 1.78); naive multiplication would say 45%, off by +26%

FC Sion HOME v Ajax AWAY

18:15 · UECL · expected goals FC Sion 1.21 – 1.55 Ajax

FC Sion 37% · draw 26% · Ajax 37%

FC Sion win

37%

Draw

26%

Ajax win

37%

FC Sion or draw

63%

either team

74%

draw or Ajax

63%

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

BTTS Yes

54%

BTTS No

46%

FC Sion clean sheet

21%

Ajax clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 8%

Half-time markets

	FC Sion			Draw			Ajax
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	24.9%	—	—	40.6%	—	—	34.4%	—	—
2nd half	27.1%	—	—	34.9%	—	—	38.0%	—	—

Correlated combinations

FC Sion win + FC Sion clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.90); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
Ajax win + Ajax clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.34); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.29); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +53%

Gent HOME v Hibernian AWAY

18:30 · UECL · expected goals Gent 1.62 – 1.17 Hibernian

Gent 43% · draw 21% · Hibernian 36%

Gent win

43%

Draw

21%

Hibernian win

36%

Gent or draw

64%

either team

79%

draw or Hibernian

57%

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

BTTS Yes

54%

BTTS No

46%

Gent clean sheet

31%

Hibernian clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Gent			Draw			Hibernian
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	36.1%	—	—	40.2%	—	—	23.7%	—	—
2nd half	39.9%	—	—	34.5%	—	—	25.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Hibernian win + Hibernian clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.52); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +146%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.85); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
Gent win + Gent clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.10); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +67%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%

FC Lugano HOME v Maccabi Tel Aviv AWAY

18:30 · UECL · expected goals FC Lugano 1.69 – 1.05 Maccabi Tel Aviv

FC Lugano 58% · draw 25% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 17%

FC Lugano win

58%

Draw

25%

Maccabi Tel A… win

17%

FC Lugano or draw

83%

either team

75%

draw or Maccabi Tel A…

42%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

52%

BTTS No

48%

FC Lugano clean sheet

35%

Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet

18%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%

Half-time markets

	FC Lugano			Draw			Maccabi Tel Aviv
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	38.8%	—	—	40.4%	—	—	20.8%	—	—
2nd half	43.0%	—	—	34.6%	—	—	22.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Maccabi Tel A… win + Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +172%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +62%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.34); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
FC Lugano win + FC Lugano clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.53); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +55%

Motherwell HOME v SC Freiburg AWAY

18:30 · UECL · expected goals Motherwell 1.30 – 1.40 SC Freiburg

Motherwell 37% · draw 28% · SC Freiburg 35%

Motherwell win

37%

Draw

28%

SC Freiburg win

35%

Motherwell or draw

65%

either team

72%

draw or SC Freiburg

63%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Motherwell clean sheet

25%

SC Freiburg clean sheet

27%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Motherwell			Draw			SC Freiburg
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	28.0%	—	—	41.3%	—	—	30.7%	—	—
2nd half	30.6%	—	—	35.6%	—	—	33.8%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Motherwell win + Motherwell clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.70); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
SC Freiburg win + SC Freiburg clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.99); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.34); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

Heart Of Midlothian HOME v Rapid Vienna AWAY

18:45 · UECL · expected goals Heart Of Midlothian 1.54 – 0.99 Rapid Vienna

Heart Of Midlothian 58% · draw 23% · Rapid Vienna 19%

Heart Of Midl… win

58%

Draw

23%

Rapid Vienna win

19%

Heart Of Midl… or draw

81%

either team

77%

draw or Rapid Vienna

42%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Heart Of Midl… clean sheet

37%

Rapid Vienna clean sheet

21%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 9% · 2–1 9%

Half-time markets

	Heart Of Midlothian			Draw			Rapid Vienna
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	36.7%	—	—	42.5%	—	—	20.9%	—	—
2nd half	40.8%	—	—	36.5%	—	—	22.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Rapid Vienna win + Rapid Vienna clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.64); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +155%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +61%
Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.48); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%

Rangers HOME v FK Jablonec AWAY

18:45 · UECL · expected goals Rangers 2.11 – 1.02 FK Jablonec

Thin data: Rangers 357 matches, FK Jablonec 13 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Rangers 72% · draw 17% · FK Jablonec 11%

Rangers win

72%

Draw

17%

FK Jablonec win

11%

Rangers or draw

89%

either team

83%

draw or FK Jablonec

28%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

BTTS Yes

54%

BTTS No

46%

Rangers clean sheet

36%

FK Jablonec clean sheet

12%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 2–0 10% · 1–1 10% · 1–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Rangers			Draw			FK Jablonec
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	46.4%	—	—	36.1%	—	—	17.5%	—	—
2nd half	51.3%	—	—	30.4%	—	—	18.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 6.94); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +75%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +73%
Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +40%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.14); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +37%

Shamrock Rovers HOME v KuPS AWAY

19:00 · UECL · expected goals Shamrock Rovers 1.21 – 0.88 KuPS

Shamrock Rovers 42% · draw 30% · KuPS 27%

Shamrock Rove… win

42%

Draw

30%

KuPS win

27%

Shamrock Rove… or draw

73%

either team

70%

draw or KuPS

58%

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

BTTS Yes

44%

BTTS No

56%

Shamrock Rove… clean sheet

42%

KuPS clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

48%

Total Even

52%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 11%

Half-time markets

	Shamrock Rovers			Draw			KuPS
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	31.1%	—	—	47.9%	—	—	21.1%	—	—
2nd half	34.9%	—	—	41.7%	—	—	23.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

KuPS win + KuPS clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.85); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +116%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +94%
Shamrock Rove… win + Shamrock Rove… clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.49); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +60%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%

HNK Hajduk Split HOME v Raków Częstochowa AWAY

19:00 · UECL · expected goals HNK Hajduk Split 0.91 – 1.17 Raków Częstochowa

Thin data: HNK Hajduk Split 20 matches, Raków Częstochowa 40 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

HNK Hajduk Split 26% · draw 28% · Raków Częstochowa 46%

HNK Hajduk Sp… win

26%

Draw

28%

Raków Częstoc… win

46%

HNK Hajduk Sp… or draw

54%

either team

72%

draw or Raków Częstoc…

74%

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

BTTS Yes

45%

BTTS No

55%

HNK Hajduk Sp… clean sheet

31%

Raków Częstoc… clean sheet

40%

Total Odd

48%

Total Even

52%

Likeliest scores: 0–1 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 1–0 11%

Half-time markets

	HNK Hajduk Split			Draw			Raków Częstochowa
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	22.0%	—	—	48.0%	—	—	30.0%	—	—
2nd half	24.4%	—	—	41.9%	—	—	33.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

HNK Hajduk Sp… win + HNK Hajduk Sp… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.58); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +94%
Raków Częstoc… win + Raków Częstoc… clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.66); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +64%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%

Getafe HOME v FK Partizan AWAY

19:00 · UECL · expected goals Getafe 1.24 – 0.77 FK Partizan

Getafe 48% · draw 26% · FK Partizan 26%

Getafe win

48%

Draw

26%

FK Partizan win

26%

Getafe or draw

74%

either team

74%

draw or FK Partizan

52%

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

BTTS Yes

43%

BTTS No

57%

Getafe clean sheet

46%

FK Partizan clean sheet

29%

Total Odd

48%

Total Even

52%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 16% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10%

Half-time markets

	Getafe			Draw			FK Partizan
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	33.0%	—	—	48.5%	—	—	18.5%	—	—
2nd half	37.3%	—	—	42.3%	—	—	20.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

FK Partizan win + FK Partizan clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.62); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +131%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.92); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +101%
Getafe win + Getafe clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +50%
Getafe win + Over 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.87); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +33%

Dinamo Tirana HOME v Pafos AWAY

19:00 · UECL · expected goals Dinamo Tirana 1.17 – 1.31 Pafos

Thin data: Dinamo Tirana 6 matches, Pafos 32 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Dinamo Tirana 31% · draw 29% · Pafos 40%

Dinamo Tirana win

31%

Draw

29%

Pafos win

40%

Dinamo Tirana or draw

60%

either team

71%

draw or Pafos

69%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Dinamo Tirana clean sheet

27%

Pafos clean sheet

31%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 9% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Dinamo Tirana			Draw			Pafos
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	26.1%	—	—	43.5%	—	—	30.4%	—	—
2nd half	28.7%	—	—	37.7%	—	—	33.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Dinamo Tirana win + Dinamo Tirana clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +107%
Pafos win + Pafos clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.47); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +81%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.40); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

SC Braga HOME v Austria Vienna AWAY

19:00 · UECL · expected goals SC Braga 2.24 – 0.92 Austria Vienna

SC Braga 65% · draw 21% · Austria Vienna 14%

SC Braga win

65%

Draw

21%

Austria Vienna win

14%

SC Braga or draw

86%

either team

79%

draw or Austria Vienna

35%

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

SC Braga clean sheet

40%

Austria Vienna clean sheet

11%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–1 9%

Half-time markets

	SC Braga			Draw			Austria Vienna
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	49.8%	—	—	35.1%	—	—	15.2%	—	—
2nd half	55.0%	—	—	29.3%	—	—	15.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.38); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +81%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +67%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.22); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +36%
SC Braga win + SC Braga clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +32%

UEL UEFA Europa League (Europe) (12 matches) all days →

Best value in UEL

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Beşiktaş H thin data	74.3%	1.35	—	—	—
JagielloniavSaburtalo	Jagiellonia H thin data	63.9%	1.57	—	—	—
BenficavAarhus	Benfica H	60.5%	1.65	—	—	—
Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Mjallby AIF H	59.0%	1.70	—	—	—
Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Universitatea Craiova H thin data	54.3%	1.84	—	—	—
Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Lech Poznan H	53.4%	1.87	—	—	—

Kairat Almaty HOME v Anderlecht AWAY

15:00 · UEL · expected goals Kairat Almaty 1.19 – 1.34 Anderlecht

Kairat Almaty 29% · draw 28% · Anderlecht 43%

Kairat Almaty win

29%

Draw

28%

Anderlecht win

43%

Kairat Almaty or draw

57%

either team

72%

draw or Anderlecht

71%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Kairat Almaty clean sheet

26%

Anderlecht clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 9%

Half-time markets

	Kairat Almaty			Draw			Anderlecht
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	26.4%	—	—	43.0%	—	—	30.7%	—	—
2nd half	29.0%	—	—	37.1%	—	—	33.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Kairat Almaty win + Kairat Almaty clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
Anderlecht win + Anderlecht clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +82%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%

Jagiellonia HOME v Saburtalo AWAY

16:00 · UEL · expected goals Jagiellonia 1.73 – 0.83 Saburtalo

Thin data: Jagiellonia 32 matches, Saburtalo 19 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Jagiellonia 64% · draw 22% · Saburtalo 15%

Jagiellonia win

64%

Draw

22%

Saburtalo win

15%

Jagiellonia or draw

85%

either team

78%

draw or Saburtalo

36%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

48%

BTTS No

52%

Jagiellonia clean sheet

44%

Saburtalo clean sheet

18%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 2–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Jagiellonia			Draw			Saburtalo
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.2%	—	—	41.3%	—	—	16.5%	—	—
2nd half	47.2%	—	—	35.2%	—	—	17.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +60%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.12); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.42); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +47%
Jagiellonia win + Jagiellonia clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +39%

Mjallby AIF HOME v Red Bull Salzburg AWAY

16:00 · UEL · expected goals Mjallby AIF 1.60 – 1.05 Red Bull Salzburg

Mjallby AIF 59% · draw 21% · Red Bull Salzburg 20%

Mjallby AIF win

59%

Draw

21%

Red Bull Salz… win

20%

Mjallby AIF or draw

80%

either team

79%

draw or Red Bull Salz…

41%

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Mjallby AIF clean sheet

35%

Red Bull Salz… clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Mjallby AIF			Draw			Red Bull Salzburg
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	37.1%	—	—	41.3%	—	—	21.5%	—	—
2nd half	41.2%	—	—	35.5%	—	—	23.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Red Bull Salz… win + Red Bull Salz… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.86); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +157%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
Mjallby AIF win + Mjallby AIF clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.63); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +58%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +55%

Lech Poznan HOME v FC Thun AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Lech Poznan 1.96 – 1.57 FC Thun

Lech Poznan 53% · draw 22% · FC Thun 25%

Lech Poznan win

53%

Draw

22%

FC Thun win

25%

Lech Poznan or draw

75%

either team

78%

draw or FC Thun

47%

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

BTTS Yes

62%

BTTS No

38%

Lech Poznan clean sheet

21%

FC Thun clean sheet

14%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 9% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 7% · 2–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Lech Poznan			Draw			FC Thun
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	37.5%	—	—	34.9%	—	—	27.6%	—	—
2nd half	40.8%	—	—	29.8%	—	—	29.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.21); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +150%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.51); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +123%
Lech Poznan win + Lech Poznan clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.70); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +81%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.99); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +78%

Universitatea Craiova HOME v Ararat-Armenia AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Universitatea Craiova 1.90 – 1.11 Ararat-Armenia

Thin data: Universitatea Craiova 18 matches, Ararat-Armenia 26 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Universitatea Craiova 54% · draw 25% · Ararat-Armenia 21%

Universitatea… win

54%

Draw

25%

Ararat-Armenia win

21%

Universitatea… or draw

79%

either team

75%

draw or Ararat-Armenia

46%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

Universitatea… clean sheet

33%

Ararat-Armenia clean sheet

15%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Universitatea Craiova			Draw			Ararat-Armenia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	41.8%	—	—	37.8%	—	—	20.4%	—	—
2nd half	46.1%	—	—	32.2%	—	—	21.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +75%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.24); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +66%
Universitatea… win + Universitatea… clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +52%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.15); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +40%

Trabzonspor HOME v Ferencvarosi TC AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Trabzonspor 1.67 – 1.30 Ferencvarosi TC

Trabzonspor 47% · draw 25% · Ferencvarosi TC 28%

Trabzonspor win

47%

Draw

25%

Ferencvarosi … win

28%

Trabzonspor or draw

72%

either team

75%

draw or Ferencvarosi …

53%

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Trabzonspor clean sheet

27%

Ferencvarosi … clean sheet

19%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Trabzonspor			Draw			Ferencvarosi TC
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	35.6%	—	—	38.9%	—	—	25.5%	—	—
2nd half	39.1%	—	—	33.3%	—	—	27.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Ferencvarosi … win + Ferencvarosi … clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.49); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
Trabzonspor win + Trabzonspor clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.60); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +75%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.89); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë HOME v Lillestrom AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.50 – 1.21 Lillestrom

Thin data: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 12 matches, Lillestrom 154 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 40% · draw 29% · Lillestrom 31%

Egnatia Rrogo… win

40%

Draw

29%

Lillestrom win

31%

Egnatia Rrogo… or draw

69%

either team

71%

draw or Lillestrom

60%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet

30%

Lillestrom clean sheet

22%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	Egnatia Rrogozhinë			Draw			Lillestrom
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	33.5%	—	—	41.2%	—	—	25.3%	—	—
2nd half	37.0%	—	—	35.4%	—	—	27.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Lillestrom win + Lillestrom clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.57); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +127%
Egnatia Rrogo… win + Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.39); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +75%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

Beşiktaş HOME v Kauno Žalgiris AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Beşiktaş 1.80 – 0.92 Kauno Žalgiris

Thin data: Beşiktaş 298 matches, Kauno Žalgiris 17 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Beşiktaş 74% · draw 15% · Kauno Žalgiris 10%

Beşiktaş win

74%

Draw

15%

Kauno Žalgiris win

10%

Beşiktaş or draw

90%

either team

85%

draw or Kauno Žalgiris

26%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Beşiktaş clean sheet

40%

Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet

16%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Beşiktaş			Draw			Kauno Žalgiris
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.4%	—	—	39.9%	—	—	17.7%	—	—
2nd half	47.2%	—	—	33.9%	—	—	18.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.51); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +56%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +52%
Beşiktaş win + Beşiktaş clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.03); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +43%

St. Truiden HOME v Omonia Nicosia AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals St. Truiden 1.28 – 1.17 Omonia Nicosia

St. Truiden 42% · draw 27% · Omonia Nicosia 31%

St. Truiden win

42%

Draw

27%

Omonia Nicosia win

31%

St. Truiden or draw

69%

either team

73%

draw or Omonia Nicosia

58%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

St. Truiden clean sheet

31%

Omonia Nicosia clean sheet

28%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	St. Truiden			Draw			Omonia Nicosia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	29.6%	—	—	43.9%	—	—	26.5%	—	—
2nd half	32.8%	—	—	38.0%	—	—	29.2%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Omonia Nicosia win + Omonia Nicosia clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.31); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
St. Truiden win + St. Truiden clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.36); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

OFI HOME v CSKA Sofia AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals OFI 1.41 – 1.31 CSKA Sofia

OFI 43% · draw 28% · CSKA Sofia 29%

OFI win

43%

Draw

28%

CSKA Sofia win

29%

OFI or draw

71%

either team

72%

draw or CSKA Sofia

57%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

54%

BTTS No

46%

OFI clean sheet

27%

CSKA Sofia clean sheet

24%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	OFI			Draw			CSKA Sofia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	30.9%	—	—	41.2%	—	—	28.0%	—	—
2nd half	33.9%	—	—	35.5%	—	—	30.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

CSKA Sofia win + CSKA Sofia clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.75); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
OFI win + OFI clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.01); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +68%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.13); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +51%

FK Crvena Zvezda HOME v Plzen AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals FK Crvena Zvezda 1.10 – 0.98 Plzen

FK Crvena Zvezda 34% · draw 30% · Plzen 36%

FK Crvena Zve… win

34%

Draw

30%

Plzen win

36%

FK Crvena Zve… or draw

64%

either team

70%

draw or Plzen

66%

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

BTTS Yes

45%

BTTS No

55%

FK Crvena Zve… clean sheet

37%

Plzen clean sheet

33%

Total Odd

48%

Total Even

52%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12%

Half-time markets

	FK Crvena Zvezda			Draw			Plzen
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	27.7%	—	—	48.1%	—	—	24.1%	—	—
2nd half	31.1%	—	—	42.0%	—	—	26.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.55); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +94%
Plzen win + Plzen clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.90); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +94%
FK Crvena Zve… win + FK Crvena Zve… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.07); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +74%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.94); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +36%

Benfica HOME v Aarhus AWAY

19:00 · UEL · expected goals Benfica 2.12 – 0.89 Aarhus

Benfica 60% · draw 21% · Aarhus 19%

Benfica win

60%

Draw

21%

Aarhus win

19%

Benfica or draw

81%

either team

79%

draw or Aarhus

40%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Benfica clean sheet

41%

Aarhus clean sheet

12%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 1–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Benfica			Draw			Aarhus
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	48.3%	—	—	36.4%	—	—	15.3%	—	—
2nd half	53.5%	—	—	30.5%	—	—	16.0%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +74%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +61%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +41%
Benfica win + Benfica clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +33%