UEL predictions

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

UEL UEFA Europa League (Europe) · 12 fixtures across 1 day

Thursday 20 August (12 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
BeşiktaşvKauno Žalgiris	Beşiktaş H thin data	74.3%	1.35	—	—	—
JagielloniavSaburtalo	Jagiellonia H thin data	63.9%	1.57	—	—	—
BenficavAarhus	Benfica H	60.5%	1.65	—	—	—
Mjallby AIFvRed Bull Salzburg	Mjallby AIF H	59.0%	1.70	—	—	—
Universitatea CraiovavArarat-Armenia	Universitatea Craiova H thin data	54.3%	1.84	—	—	—
Lech PoznanvFC Thun	Lech Poznan H	53.4%	1.87	—	—	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Kairat Almaty HOME v Anderlecht AWAY

15:00 · UEL · expected goals Kairat Almaty 1.19 – 1.34 Anderlecht

Kairat Almaty 29% · draw 28% · Anderlecht 43%

Kairat Almaty win

29%

Draw

28%

Anderlecht win

43%

Kairat Almaty or draw

57%

either team

72%

draw or Anderlecht

71%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Kairat Almaty clean sheet

26%

Anderlecht clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 9%

Half-time markets

	Kairat Almaty			Draw			Anderlecht
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	26.4%	—	—	43.0%	—	—	30.7%	—	—
2nd half	29.0%	—	—	37.1%	—	—	33.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Kairat Almaty win + Kairat Almaty clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.62); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
Anderlecht win + Anderlecht clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +82%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%

Jagiellonia HOME v Saburtalo AWAY

16:00 · UEL · expected goals Jagiellonia 1.73 – 0.83 Saburtalo

Thin data: Jagiellonia 32 matches, Saburtalo 19 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Jagiellonia 64% · draw 22% · Saburtalo 15%

Jagiellonia win

64%

Draw

22%

Saburtalo win

15%

Jagiellonia or draw

85%

either team

78%

draw or Saburtalo

36%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

48%

BTTS No

52%

Jagiellonia clean sheet

44%

Saburtalo clean sheet

18%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 2–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Jagiellonia			Draw			Saburtalo
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.2%	—	—	41.3%	—	—	16.5%	—	—
2nd half	47.2%	—	—	35.2%	—	—	17.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +60%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.12); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.42); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +47%
Jagiellonia win + Jagiellonia clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +39%

Mjallby AIF HOME v Red Bull Salzburg AWAY

16:00 · UEL · expected goals Mjallby AIF 1.60 – 1.05 Red Bull Salzburg

Mjallby AIF 59% · draw 21% · Red Bull Salzburg 20%

Mjallby AIF win

59%

Draw

21%

Red Bull Salz… win

20%

Mjallby AIF or draw

80%

either team

79%

draw or Red Bull Salz…

41%

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Mjallby AIF clean sheet

35%

Red Bull Salz… clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Mjallby AIF			Draw			Red Bull Salzburg
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	37.1%	—	—	41.3%	—	—	21.5%	—	—
2nd half	41.2%	—	—	35.5%	—	—	23.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Red Bull Salz… win + Red Bull Salz… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.86); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +157%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
Mjallby AIF win + Mjallby AIF clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.63); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +58%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +55%

Lech Poznan HOME v FC Thun AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Lech Poznan 1.96 – 1.57 FC Thun

Lech Poznan 53% · draw 22% · FC Thun 25%

Lech Poznan win

53%

Draw

22%

FC Thun win

25%

Lech Poznan or draw

75%

either team

78%

draw or FC Thun

47%

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

BTTS Yes

62%

BTTS No

38%

Lech Poznan clean sheet

21%

FC Thun clean sheet

14%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 9% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 7% · 2–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Lech Poznan			Draw			FC Thun
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	37.5%	—	—	34.9%	—	—	27.6%	—	—
2nd half	40.8%	—	—	29.8%	—	—	29.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.21); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +150%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.51); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +123%
Lech Poznan win + Lech Poznan clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.70); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +81%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.99); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +78%

Universitatea Craiova HOME v Ararat-Armenia AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Universitatea Craiova 1.90 – 1.11 Ararat-Armenia

Thin data: Universitatea Craiova 18 matches, Ararat-Armenia 26 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Universitatea Craiova 54% · draw 25% · Ararat-Armenia 21%

Universitatea… win

54%

Draw

25%

Ararat-Armenia win

21%

Universitatea… or draw

79%

either team

75%

draw or Ararat-Armenia

46%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

Universitatea… clean sheet

33%

Ararat-Armenia clean sheet

15%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Universitatea Craiova			Draw			Ararat-Armenia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	41.8%	—	—	37.8%	—	—	20.4%	—	—
2nd half	46.1%	—	—	32.2%	—	—	21.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +75%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.24); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +66%
Universitatea… win + Universitatea… clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +52%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.15); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +40%

Trabzonspor HOME v Ferencvarosi TC AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Trabzonspor 1.67 – 1.30 Ferencvarosi TC

Trabzonspor 47% · draw 25% · Ferencvarosi TC 28%

Trabzonspor win

47%

Draw

25%

Ferencvarosi … win

28%

Trabzonspor or draw

72%

either team

75%

draw or Ferencvarosi …

53%

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Trabzonspor clean sheet

27%

Ferencvarosi … clean sheet

19%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Trabzonspor			Draw			Ferencvarosi TC
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	35.6%	—	—	38.9%	—	—	25.5%	—	—
2nd half	39.1%	—	—	33.3%	—	—	27.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Ferencvarosi … win + Ferencvarosi … clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.49); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
Trabzonspor win + Trabzonspor clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.60); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +75%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.89); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë HOME v Lillestrom AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.50 – 1.21 Lillestrom

Thin data: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 12 matches, Lillestrom 154 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 40% · draw 29% · Lillestrom 31%

Egnatia Rrogo… win

40%

Draw

29%

Lillestrom win

31%

Egnatia Rrogo… or draw

69%

either team

71%

draw or Lillestrom

60%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet

30%

Lillestrom clean sheet

22%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	Egnatia Rrogozhinë			Draw			Lillestrom
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	33.5%	—	—	41.2%	—	—	25.3%	—	—
2nd half	37.0%	—	—	35.4%	—	—	27.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Lillestrom win + Lillestrom clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.57); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +127%
Egnatia Rrogo… win + Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.39); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +75%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

Beşiktaş HOME v Kauno Žalgiris AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Beşiktaş 1.80 – 0.92 Kauno Žalgiris

Thin data: Beşiktaş 298 matches, Kauno Žalgiris 17 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Beşiktaş 74% · draw 15% · Kauno Žalgiris 10%

Beşiktaş win

74%

Draw

15%

Kauno Žalgiris win

10%

Beşiktaş or draw

90%

either team

85%

draw or Kauno Žalgiris

26%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Beşiktaş clean sheet

40%

Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet

16%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Beşiktaş			Draw			Kauno Žalgiris
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.4%	—	—	39.9%	—	—	17.7%	—	—
2nd half	47.2%	—	—	33.9%	—	—	18.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.51); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +56%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +52%
Beşiktaş win + Beşiktaş clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.03); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +43%

St. Truiden HOME v Omonia Nicosia AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals St. Truiden 1.28 – 1.17 Omonia Nicosia

St. Truiden 42% · draw 27% · Omonia Nicosia 31%

St. Truiden win

42%

Draw

27%

Omonia Nicosia win

31%

St. Truiden or draw

69%

either team

73%

draw or Omonia Nicosia

58%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

St. Truiden clean sheet

31%

Omonia Nicosia clean sheet

28%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	St. Truiden			Draw			Omonia Nicosia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	29.6%	—	—	43.9%	—	—	26.5%	—	—
2nd half	32.8%	—	—	38.0%	—	—	29.2%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Omonia Nicosia win + Omonia Nicosia clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.31); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
St. Truiden win + St. Truiden clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.36); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

OFI HOME v CSKA Sofia AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals OFI 1.41 – 1.31 CSKA Sofia

OFI 43% · draw 28% · CSKA Sofia 29%

OFI win

43%

Draw

28%

CSKA Sofia win

29%

OFI or draw

71%

either team

72%

draw or CSKA Sofia

57%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

54%

BTTS No

46%

OFI clean sheet

27%

CSKA Sofia clean sheet

24%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	OFI			Draw			CSKA Sofia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	30.9%	—	—	41.2%	—	—	28.0%	—	—
2nd half	33.9%	—	—	35.5%	—	—	30.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

CSKA Sofia win + CSKA Sofia clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.75); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
OFI win + OFI clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.01); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +68%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.13); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +51%

FK Crvena Zvezda HOME v Plzen AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals FK Crvena Zvezda 1.10 – 0.98 Plzen

FK Crvena Zvezda 34% · draw 30% · Plzen 36%

FK Crvena Zve… win

34%

Draw

30%

Plzen win

36%

FK Crvena Zve… or draw

64%

either team

70%

draw or Plzen

66%

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

BTTS Yes

45%

BTTS No

55%

FK Crvena Zve… clean sheet

37%

Plzen clean sheet

33%

Total Odd

48%

Total Even

52%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12%

Half-time markets

	FK Crvena Zvezda			Draw			Plzen
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	27.7%	—	—	48.1%	—	—	24.1%	—	—
2nd half	31.1%	—	—	42.0%	—	—	26.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.55); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +94%
Plzen win + Plzen clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.90); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +94%
FK Crvena Zve… win + FK Crvena Zve… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.07); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +74%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.94); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +36%

Benfica HOME v Aarhus AWAY

19:00 · UEL · expected goals Benfica 2.12 – 0.89 Aarhus

Benfica 60% · draw 21% · Aarhus 19%

Benfica win

60%

Draw

21%

Aarhus win

19%

Benfica or draw

81%

either team

79%

draw or Aarhus

40%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Benfica clean sheet

41%

Aarhus clean sheet

12%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 1–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Benfica			Draw			Aarhus
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	48.3%	—	—	36.4%	—	—	15.3%	—	—
2nd half	53.5%	—	—	30.5%	—	—	16.0%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +74%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +61%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +41%
Benfica win + Benfica clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +33%