Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
DEN1 Superliga (Denmark) · 6 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Sonderjyske HOME
v FC Nordsjaelland AWAY
10:00 ·
DEN1 · expected goals
Sonderjyske 1.44 – 1.65 FC Nordsjaelland
Sonderjyske 30%
· draw 27%
· FC Nordsjaelland 43%
draw or FC Nordsjaell…
70%
Sonderjyske clean sheet
19%
FC Nordsjaell… clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
| Sonderjyske | Draw | FC Nordsjaelland |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.1% | — | — | 38.1% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.4% | — | — | 32.7% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Sonderjyske win + Sonderjyske clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.01); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +124%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
- FC Nordsjaell… win + FC Nordsjaell… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.32); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +87%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.24); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
Aarhus HOME
v Odense AWAY
12:00 ·
DEN1 · expected goals
Aarhus 2.16 – 1.04 Odense
Aarhus 63%
· draw 22%
· Odense 15%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–1 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Aarhus | Draw | Odense |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 47.0% | — | — | 35.5% | — | — | 17.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 51.8% | — | — | 29.8% | — | — | 18.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.25); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +78%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.51); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +77%
- Aarhus win + Aarhus clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.23); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +40%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.08); naive multiplication would say 36%, off by +35%
FC Midtjylland HOME
v Randers FC AWAY
12:00 ·
DEN1 · expected goals
FC Midtjylland 2.33 – 0.91 Randers FC
FC Midtjylland 66%
· draw 21%
· Randers FC 13%
FC Midtjylland or draw
87%
FC Midtjylland clean sheet
40%
Randers FC clean sheet
10%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
| FC Midtjylland | Draw | Randers FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 51.3% | — | — | 34.2% | — | — | 14.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 56.6% | — | — | 28.4% | — | — | 15.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.84); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +87%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.50); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +68%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.19); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +34%
- FC Midtjylland win + FC Midtjylland clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.77); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +30%
AC Horsens HOME
v Lyngby AWAY
14:00 ·
DEN1 · expected goals
AC Horsens 1.36 – 1.05 Lyngby
AC Horsens 39%
· draw 29%
· Lyngby 32%
AC Horsens clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| AC Horsens | Draw | Lyngby |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.5% | — | — | 44.2% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.2% | — | — | 38.2% | — | — | 25.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lyngby win + Lyngby clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.15); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +122%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- AC Horsens win + AC Horsens clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.90); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.29); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +49%
Viborg HOME
v FC Copenhagen AWAY
16:00 ·
DEN1 · expected goals
Viborg 1.42 – 1.74 FC Copenhagen
Viborg 24%
· draw 21%
· FC Copenhagen 55%
FC Copenhagen clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 7% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
| Viborg | Draw | FC Copenhagen |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.9% | — | — | 37.5% | — | — | 35.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 29.0% | — | — | 32.1% | — | — | 38.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Viborg win + Viborg clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.71); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +137%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.56); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +94%
- FC Copenhagen win + FC Copenhagen clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.09); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +80%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.47); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +65%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Brondby HOME
v Silkeborg AWAY
17:00 ·
DEN1 · expected goals
Brondby 2.05 – 1.07 Silkeborg
Brondby 64%
· draw 21%
· Silkeborg 16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Brondby | Draw | Silkeborg |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 44.9% | — | — | 36.5% | — | — | 18.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 49.5% | — | — | 30.8% | — | — | 19.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.37); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.80); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +73%
- Brondby win + Brondby clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.38); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +44%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.10); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +37%