Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
EFL 2 fixtures across 2 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 31.1% | 3.22 | 8.04 | +149.8% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 4.49 | +135.3% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.56 | +100.9% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.57 | +85.5% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 76.1% | 1.31 | 2.19 | +66.3% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 53.5% | 1.87 | 3.08 | +64.8% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.85 | +40.4% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.66 | +39.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Mansfield Town H thin data | 54.2% | 1.85 | 3.86 | +109.2% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Draw thin data | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.55 | -3.5% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Sheffield Utd A thin data | 18.6% | 5.36 | 1.87 | -65.1% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 31.1% | 3.22 | 8.04 | +149.8% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 4.49 | +135.3% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 76.1% | 1.31 | 2.19 | +66.3% | — |
| Mansfield TownvSheffield Utd | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.66 | +39.6% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Mansfield Town HOME
v Sheffield Utd AWAY
15:00 · EFL · expected goals
Mansfield Town 1.75 – 1.02 Sheffield Utd
Thin data: Mansfield Town 11 matches, Sheffield Utd 125 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Mansfield Town 54%
· draw 27%
· Sheffield Utd 19%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Mansfield Town | 54.2% | 23.6% | 3.86 | +30.6pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.8% | 3.55 | +1.4pp |
| Sheffield Utd | 18.6% | 50.6% | 1.87 | -32.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.1% | 42.9% | 2.19 | +33.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.9% | 57.1% | 1.64 | -33.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 22.1% | 4.49 | +30.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | 77.9% | 1.27 | -30.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 12.6% | 8.04 | +18.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 87.4% | 1.16 | -18.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 52.4% | 37.1% | 2.66 | +15.3pp |
| BTTS No | 47.6% | 62.9% | 1.57 | -15.3pp |
Mansfield Town or draw
81%
Mansfield Town clean sheet
36%
Sheffield Utd clean sheet
17%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Sheffield Utd win + Sheffield Utd clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.43); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +185%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +62%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.46); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- Mansfield Town win + Mansfield Town clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.42); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +51%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| PlymouthvExeter City | Exeter City A thin data | 22.1% | 4.53 | 5.82 | +28.4% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Draw thin data | 20.1% | 4.98 | 4.47 | -10.1% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Plymouth H thin data | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.46 | -15.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.56 | +100.9% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.57 | +85.5% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 53.5% | 1.87 | 3.08 | +64.8% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.85 | +40.4% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Plymouth HOME
v Exeter City AWAY
19:00 · EFL · expected goals
Plymouth 1.62 – 1.14 Exeter City
Thin data: Plymouth 13 matches, Exeter City 11 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Plymouth 58%
· draw 20%
· Exeter City 22%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Plymouth | 57.8% | 65.3% | 1.46 | -7.4pp |
| Draw | 20.1% | 19.9% | 4.47 | +0.2pp |
| Exeter City | 22.1% | 14.8% | 5.82 | +7.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 50.6% | 1.85 | +25.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.3% | 49.4% | 1.90 | -25.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 27.4% | 3.57 | +24.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 72.6% | 1.35 | -24.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 15.8% | 6.56 | +14.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 84.2% | 1.23 | -14.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.5% | 34.4% | 3.08 | +19.1pp |
| BTTS No | 46.5% | 65.6% | 1.62 | -19.1pp |
Exeter City clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Exeter City win + Exeter City clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.72); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +149%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
- Plymouth win + Plymouth clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.96); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.26); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%