EFL predictions

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

EFL EFL Cup (England) · 21 fixtures across 2 days

Tuesday 25 August (17 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
PlymouthvCoventry	Coventry A	58.1%	1.72	—	—	—
Fleetwood TownvShrewsbury	Fleetwood Town H thin data	57.9%	1.73	—	—	—
IpswichvLeicester	Ipswich H	52.5%	1.90	—	—	—
BirminghamvBrentford	Brentford A	52.1%	1.92	—	—	—
Sheffield WednesdayvWolves	Wolves A	50.4%	1.99	—	—	—
Nottingham ForestvLeeds	Nottingham Forest H	46.7%	2.14	—	—	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Cardiff HOME v Norwich AWAY

18:00 · EFL · expected goals Cardiff 1.40 – 1.47 Norwich

Cardiff 35% · draw 26% · Norwich 40%

Cardiff win

35%

Draw

26%

Norwich win

40%

Cardiff or draw

60%

either team

74%

draw or Norwich

65%

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

Cardiff clean sheet

23%

Norwich clean sheet

25%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	Cardiff			Draw			Norwich
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	29.1%	—	—	39.9%	—	—	31.0%	—	—
2nd half	31.7%	—	—	34.4%	—	—	33.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Cardiff win + Cardiff clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.88); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
Norwich win + Norwich clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.00); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +76%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.51); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%

Doncaster HOME v Middlesbrough AWAY

18:30 · EFL · expected goals Doncaster 1.53 – 1.19 Middlesbrough

Thin data: Doncaster 12 matches, Middlesbrough 342 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Doncaster 33% · draw 34% · Middlesbrough 33%

Doncaster win

33%

Draw

34%

Middlesbrough win

33%

Doncaster or draw

67%

either team

66%

draw or Middlesbrough

67%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Doncaster clean sheet

30%

Middlesbrough clean sheet

22%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Doncaster			Draw			Middlesbrough
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	34.2%	—	—	41.0%	—	—	24.8%	—	—
2nd half	37.8%	—	—	35.3%	—	—	27.0%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Middlesbrough win + Middlesbrough clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.79); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +131%
Doncaster win + Doncaster clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.29); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.75); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%

Walsall HOME v Leyton Orient AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Walsall 1.35 – 1.08 Leyton Orient

Thin data: Walsall 10 matches, Leyton Orient 10 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Walsall 39% · draw 30% · Leyton Orient 30%

Walsall win

39%

Draw

30%

Leyton Orient win

30%

Walsall or draw

70%

either team

70%

draw or Leyton Orient

61%

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Walsall clean sheet

34%

Leyton Orient clean sheet

26%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%

Half-time markets

	Walsall			Draw			Leyton Orient
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	32.1%	—	—	43.9%	—	—	24.0%	—	—
2nd half	35.7%	—	—	38.0%	—	—	26.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Leyton Orient win + Leyton Orient clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.02); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +119%
Walsall win + Walsall clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.03); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +71%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.77); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%

Watford HOME v Peterborough AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Watford 1.53 – 1.09 Peterborough

Watford 40% · draw 27% · Peterborough 32%

Watford win

40%

Draw

27%

Peterborough win

32%

Watford or draw

68%

either team

73%

draw or Peterborough

60%

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

BTTS Yes

52%

BTTS No

48%

Watford clean sheet

33%

Peterborough clean sheet

22%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Watford			Draw			Peterborough
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	35.3%	—	—	41.8%	—	—	22.9%	—	—
2nd half	39.2%	—	—	35.9%	—	—	24.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Peterborough win + Peterborough clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.15); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +142%
Watford win + Watford clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.87); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +64%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%

Stoke City HOME v Hull City AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Stoke City 1.26 – 1.17 Hull City

Stoke City 34% · draw 27% · Hull City 39%

Stoke City win

34%

Draw

27%

Hull City win

39%

Stoke City or draw

61%

either team

73%

draw or Hull City

66%

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Stoke City clean sheet

31%

Hull City clean sheet

28%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Stoke City			Draw			Hull City
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	29.3%	—	—	44.1%	—	—	26.6%	—	—
2nd half	32.5%	—	—	38.2%	—	—	29.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Hull City win + Hull City clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.23); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
Stoke City win + Stoke City clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%

Plymouth HOME v Coventry AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Plymouth 1.23 – 1.94 Coventry

Plymouth 19% · draw 23% · Coventry 58%

Plymouth win

19%

Draw

23%

Coventry win

58%

Plymouth or draw

42%

either team

77%

draw or Coventry

81%

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

BTTS Yes

57%

BTTS No

43%

Plymouth clean sheet

14%

Coventry clean sheet

29%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 8% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	Plymouth			Draw			Coventry
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	22.2%	—	—	36.8%	—	—	41.1%	—	—
2nd half	23.6%	—	—	31.3%	—	—	45.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.54); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +87%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.73); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
Coventry win + Coventry clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.05); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +58%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 51% (fair 1.98); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +35%

Fleetwood Town HOME v Shrewsbury AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Fleetwood Town 1.86 – 1.20 Shrewsbury

Thin data: Fleetwood Town 12 matches, Shrewsbury 10 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Fleetwood Town 58% · draw 19% · Shrewsbury 23%

Fleetwood Town win

58%

Draw

19%

Shrewsbury win

23%

Fleetwood Town or draw

77%

either team

81%

draw or Shrewsbury

42%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Fleetwood Town clean sheet

30%

Shrewsbury clean sheet

16%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Fleetwood Town			Draw			Shrewsbury
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	39.9%	—	—	37.7%	—	—	22.4%	—	—
2nd half	43.9%	—	—	32.2%	—	—	23.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Shrewsbury win + Shrewsbury clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.43); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +179%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.31); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
Fleetwood Town win + Fleetwood Town clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.00); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +59%

Blackburn HOME v Sheffield Utd AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Blackburn 1.25 – 1.22 Sheffield Utd

Blackburn 37% · draw 29% · Sheffield Utd 34%

Blackburn win

37%

Draw

29%

Sheffield Utd win

34%

Blackburn or draw

66%

either team

71%

draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Blackburn clean sheet

30%

Sheffield Utd clean sheet

29%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Blackburn			Draw			Sheffield Utd
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	28.7%	—	—	43.7%	—	—	27.6%	—	—
2nd half	31.7%	—	—	37.8%	—	—	30.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Sheffield Utd win + Sheffield Utd clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.07); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +96%
Blackburn win + Blackburn clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.82); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

Sheffield Wednesday HOME v Wolves AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Sheffield Wednesday 0.95 – 1.67 Wolves

Sheffield Wednesday 22% · draw 28% · Wolves 50%

Sheffield Wed… win

22%

Draw

28%

Wolves win

50%

Sheffield Wed… or draw

50%

either team

72%

draw or Wolves

78%

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Sheffield Wed… clean sheet

19%

Wolves clean sheet

39%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 12% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%

Half-time markets

	Sheffield Wednesday			Draw			Wolves
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	19.1%	—	—	41.2%	—	—	39.6%	—	—
2nd half	20.6%	—	—	35.3%	—	—	44.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Sheffield Wed… win + Sheffield Wed… clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.97); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +183%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +54%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.11); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +52%

Southampton HOME v West Ham AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Southampton 1.55 – 1.54 West Ham

Southampton 44% · draw 24% · West Ham 32%

Southampton win

44%

Draw

24%

West Ham win

32%

Southampton or draw

68%

either team

76%

draw or West Ham

56%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

BTTS Yes

58%

BTTS No

42%

Southampton clean sheet

21%

West Ham clean sheet

21%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%

Half-time markets

	Southampton			Draw			West Ham
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	31.0%	—	—	38.2%	—	—	30.8%	—	—
2nd half	33.7%	—	—	32.8%	—	—	33.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

West Ham win + West Ham clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.11); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +105%
Southampton win + Southampton clean sheet — 17% (fair 6.06); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +104%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.43); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%

Ipswich HOME v Leicester AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Ipswich 1.88 – 1.20 Leicester

Ipswich 52% · draw 21% · Leicester 26%

Ipswich win

52%

Draw

21%

Leicester win

26%

Ipswich or draw

74%

either team

79%

draw or Leicester

48%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Ipswich clean sheet

30%

Leicester clean sheet

15%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Ipswich			Draw			Leicester
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	40.4%	—	—	37.5%	—	—	22.2%	—	—
2nd half	44.4%	—	—	32.0%	—	—	23.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Leicester win + Leicester clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.68); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +183%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +82%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%
Ipswich win + Ipswich clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +58%

Cambridge United HOME v Millwall AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Cambridge United 1.28 – 1.00 Millwall

Thin data: Cambridge United 13 matches, Millwall 339 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Cambridge United 34% · draw 29% · Millwall 37%

Cambridge Uni… win

34%

Draw

29%

Millwall win

37%

Cambridge Uni… or draw

63%

either team

71%

draw or Millwall

66%

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

BTTS Yes

47%

BTTS No

53%

Cambridge Uni… clean sheet

37%

Millwall clean sheet

28%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Cambridge United			Draw			Millwall
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	31.3%	—	—	45.6%	—	—	23.1%	—	—
2nd half	34.9%	—	—	39.6%	—	—	25.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Millwall win + Millwall clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.80); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +115%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +77%
Cambridge Uni… win + Cambridge Uni… clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.84); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +68%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.14); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +44%

Blackpool HOME v Lincoln AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Blackpool 1.22 – 1.31 Lincoln

Thin data: Blackpool 103 matches, Lincoln 17 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Blackpool 32% · draw 29% · Lincoln 39%

Blackpool win

32%

Draw

29%

Lincoln win

39%

Blackpool or draw

61%

either team

71%

draw or Lincoln

68%

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Blackpool clean sheet

27%

Lincoln clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 0–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Blackpool			Draw			Lincoln
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	27.2%	—	—	43.1%	—	—	29.8%	—	—
2nd half	29.9%	—	—	37.2%	—	—	32.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Blackpool win + Blackpool clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
Lincoln win + Lincoln clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.73); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +87%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%

Barnsley HOME v Crewe AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Barnsley 1.45 – 1.38 Crewe

Thin data: Barnsley 154 matches, Crewe 10 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Barnsley 39% · draw 29% · Crewe 32%

Barnsley win

39%

Draw

29%

Crewe win

32%

Barnsley or draw

68%

either team

71%

draw or Crewe

61%

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

Barnsley clean sheet

25%

Crewe clean sheet

24%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%

Half-time markets

	Barnsley			Draw			Crewe
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	30.8%	—	—	40.3%	—	—	28.9%	—	—
2nd half	33.8%	—	—	34.7%	—	—	31.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Crewe win + Crewe clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.81); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +106%
Barnsley win + Barnsley clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.30); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +74%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%

Stevenage HOME v Reading AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Stevenage 1.69 – 1.32 Reading

Thin data: Stevenage 11 matches, Reading 197 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Stevenage 37% · draw 28% · Reading 35%

Stevenage win

37%

Draw

28%

Reading win

35%

Stevenage or draw

65%

either team

72%

draw or Reading

63%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

57%

BTTS No

43%

Stevenage clean sheet

27%

Reading clean sheet

19%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Stevenage			Draw			Reading
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	35.7%	—	—	38.6%	—	—	25.8%	—	—
2nd half	39.1%	—	—	33.1%	—	—	27.8%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Reading win + Reading clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.56); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.25); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +83%
Stevenage win + Stevenage clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +76%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.01); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +61%

Birmingham HOME v Brentford AWAY

19:00 · EFL · expected goals Birmingham 0.96 – 1.79 Brentford

Birmingham 21% · draw 27% · Brentford 52%

Birmingham win

21%

Draw

27%

Brentford win

52%

Birmingham or draw

48%

either team

73%

draw or Brentford

79%

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Birmingham clean sheet

17%

Brentford clean sheet

38%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 0–1 11% · 0–2 10% · 1–2 10%

Half-time markets

	Birmingham			Draw			Brentford
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	18.5%	—	—	39.8%	—	—	41.7%	—	—
2nd half	19.8%	—	—	33.9%	—	—	46.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +59%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.54); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +58%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +50%
Brentford win + Brentford clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +46%

Nottingham Forest HOME v Leeds AWAY

19:00 · EFL · expected goals Nottingham Forest 1.51 – 1.13 Leeds

Nottingham Forest 47% · draw 25% · Leeds 28%

Nottingham Fo… win

47%

Draw

25%

Leeds win

28%

Nottingham Fo… or draw

72%

either team

75%

draw or Leeds

53%

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

BTTS Yes

52%

BTTS No

48%

Nottingham Fo… clean sheet

32%

Leeds clean sheet

22%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Nottingham Forest			Draw			Leeds
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	34.6%	—	—	41.8%	—	—	23.7%	—	—
2nd half	38.3%	—	—	36.0%	—	—	25.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Leeds win + Leeds clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.88); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +136%
Nottingham Fo… win + Nottingham Fo… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.02); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%

Wednesday 26 August (4 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
TottenhamvCharlton	Tottenham H	70.1%	1.43	—	—	—
NewcastlevWest Brom	Newcastle H	65.7%	1.52	—	—	—
PrestonvEverton	Everton A	47.2%	2.12	—	—	—
BradfordvBurnley	Bradford H thin data	42.6%	2.35	—	—	—
BradfordvBurnley	Burnley A thin data	32.5%	3.08	—	—	—
PrestonvEverton	Draw	29.6%	3.38	—	—	—

Newcastle HOME v West Brom AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Newcastle 2.34 – 0.74 West Brom

Newcastle 66% · draw 20% · West Brom 14%

Newcastle win

66%

Draw

20%

West Brom win

14%

Newcastle or draw

86%

either team

80%

draw or West Brom

34%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

BTTS Yes

48%

BTTS No

52%

Newcastle clean sheet

48%

West Brom clean sheet

10%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 10% · 3–0 10% · 2–1 9%

Half-time markets

	Newcastle			Draw			West Brom
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	53.7%	—	—	34.4%	—	—	11.8%	—	—
2nd half	59.5%	—	—	28.3%	—	—	12.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.65); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +87%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.10); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +52%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +39%
Newcastle win + Newcastle clean sheet — 43% (fair 2.34); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +23%

Bradford HOME v Burnley AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Bradford 1.35 – 1.32 Burnley

Thin data: Bradford 13 matches, Burnley 298 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Bradford 43% · draw 25% · Burnley 33%

Bradford win

43%

Draw

25%

Burnley win

33%

Bradford or draw

67%

either team

75%

draw or Burnley

57%

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Bradford clean sheet

27%

Burnley clean sheet

26%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%

Half-time markets

	Bradford			Draw			Burnley
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	29.6%	—	—	41.6%	—	—	28.8%	—	—
2nd half	32.5%	—	—	35.9%	—	—	31.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Burnley win + Burnley clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +100%
Bradford win + Bradford clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.69); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +65%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.38); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%

Tottenham HOME v Charlton AWAY

18:45 · EFL · expected goals Tottenham 2.34 – 0.70 Charlton

Tottenham 70% · draw 20% · Charlton 10%

Tottenham win

70%

Draw

20%

Charlton win

10%

Tottenham or draw

90%

either team

80%

draw or Charlton

30%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

BTTS Yes

47%

BTTS No

53%

Tottenham clean sheet

49%

Charlton clean sheet

10%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 11% · 3–0 10% · 2–1 9%

Half-time markets

	Tottenham			Draw			Charlton
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	54.3%	—	—	34.5%	—	—	11.2%	—	—
2nd half	60.2%	—	—	28.3%	—	—	11.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.63); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +87%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.01); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +49%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +40%
Tottenham win + Over 4.5 — 17% (fair 5.75); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +23%

Preston HOME v Everton AWAY

19:00 · EFL · expected goals Preston 0.91 – 1.49 Everton

Preston 23% · draw 30% · Everton 47%

Preston win

23%

Draw

30%

Everton win

47%

Preston or draw

53%

either team

70%

draw or Everton

77%

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

BTTS Yes

48%

BTTS No

52%

Preston clean sheet

23%

Everton clean sheet

40%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 0–1 13% · 1–1 13% · 0–2 10% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Preston			Draw			Everton
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	19.7%	—	—	43.8%	—	—	36.5%	—	—
2nd half	21.4%	—	—	37.7%	—	—	40.8%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Preston win + Preston clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.62); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +156%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.94); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +69%
Everton win + Everton clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.26); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +52%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.26); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +46%