Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
AUT1 Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · 3 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Ried HOME
v Grazer AK AWAY
17:30 ·
AUT1 · expected goals
Ried 1.43 – 1.17 Grazer AK
Ried 40%
· draw 28%
· Grazer AK 32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Ried | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.5% | — | — | 42.3% | — | — | 25.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.9% | — | — | 36.5% | — | — | 27.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Grazer AK win + Grazer AK clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.17); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
- Ried win + Ried clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.33); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
SCR Altach HOME
v TSV Hartberg AWAY
15:00 ·
AUT1 · expected goals
SCR Altach 1.14 – 1.14 TSV Hartberg
SCR Altach 37%
· draw 30%
· TSV Hartberg 33%
SCR Altach clean sheet
32%
TSV Hartberg clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 11%
Half-time markets
| SCR Altach | Draw | TSV Hartberg |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.1% | — | — | 45.7% | — | — | 27.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.1% | — | — | 39.7% | — | — | 30.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- SCR Altach win + SCR Altach clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.70); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +89%
- TSV Hartberg win + TSV Hartberg clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +89%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.03); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +77%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.16); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +45%
Sturm Graz HOME
v Austria Lustenau AWAY
17:30 ·
AUT1 · expected goals
Sturm Graz 2.11 – 0.83 Austria Lustenau
Sturm Graz 77%
· draw 14%
· Austria Lustenau 9%
draw or Austria Luste…
23%
Sturm Graz clean sheet
44%
Austria Luste… clean sheet
12%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Sturm Graz | Draw | Austria Lustenau |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 48.9% | — | — | 36.7% | — | — | 14.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 54.3% | — | — | 30.7% | — | — | 15.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.63); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.94); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +56%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.48); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +43%
- Sturm Graz win + Sturm Graz clean sheet — 38% (fair 2.63); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +31%