E1 predictions

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

E1 Championship (England) · 12 fixtures across 2 days

Saturday 22 August (11 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
West HamvCharlton	West Ham H	61.1%	1.64	—	—	—
SouthamptonvStoke City	Southampton H	60.3%	1.66	—	—	—
LincolnvPortsmouth	Lincoln H thin data	53.1%	1.88	—	—	—
WrexhamvWatford	Wrexham H	49.5%	2.02	—	—	—
DerbyvCardiff	Derby H	47.8%	2.09	—	—	—
BlackburnvMiddlesbrough	Middlesbrough A	44.8%	2.23	—	—	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Millwall HOME v Norwich AWAY

11:30 · E1 · expected goals Millwall 1.39 – 1.06 Norwich

Millwall 44% · draw 26% · Norwich 30%

Millwall win

44%

Draw

26%

Norwich win

30%

Millwall or draw

70%

either team

74%

draw or Norwich

56%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Millwall clean sheet

34%

Norwich clean sheet

25%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 9% · 2–1 9%

Half-time markets

	Millwall			Draw			Norwich
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	33.0%	—	—	43.6%	—	—	23.4%	—	—
2nd half	36.7%	—	—	37.7%	—	—	25.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Norwich win + Norwich clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.32); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +126%
Millwall win + Millwall clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.92); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.36); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%

Lincoln HOME v Portsmouth AWAY

11:30 · E1 · expected goals Lincoln 1.72 – 0.95 Portsmouth

Thin data: Lincoln 17 matches, Portsmouth 104 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Lincoln 53% · draw 29% · Portsmouth 18%

Lincoln win

53%

Draw

29%

Portsmouth win

18%

Lincoln or draw

82%

either team

71%

draw or Portsmouth

47%

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Lincoln clean sheet

39%

Portsmouth clean sheet

18%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Lincoln			Draw			Portsmouth
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	40.5%	—	—	40.6%	—	—	18.9%	—	—
2nd half	45.1%	—	—	34.7%	—	—	20.2%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Portsmouth win + Portsmouth clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.43); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +192%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.29); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +54%

Birmingham HOME v Bristol City AWAY

11:30 · E1 · expected goals Birmingham 1.31 – 1.10 Bristol City

Birmingham 39% · draw 30% · Bristol City 30%

Birmingham win

39%

Draw

30%

Bristol City win

30%

Birmingham or draw

70%

either team

70%

draw or Bristol City

61%

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

BTTS Yes

49%

BTTS No

51%

Birmingham clean sheet

33%

Bristol City clean sheet

27%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Birmingham			Draw			Bristol City
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	30.9%	—	—	44.2%	—	—	24.9%	—	—
2nd half	34.3%	—	—	38.3%	—	—	27.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Bristol City win + Bristol City clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.67); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
Birmingham win + Birmingham clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.20); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +75%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.80); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.30); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +50%

Derby HOME v Cardiff AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals Derby 1.66 – 1.04 Cardiff

Derby 48% · draw 25% · Cardiff 27%

Derby win

48%

Draw

25%

Cardiff win

27%

Derby or draw

73%

either team

75%

draw or Cardiff

52%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

BTTS Yes

52%

BTTS No

48%

Derby clean sheet

35%

Cardiff clean sheet

19%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Derby			Draw			Cardiff
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	38.3%	—	—	40.7%	—	—	21.0%	—	—
2nd half	42.5%	—	—	34.9%	—	—	22.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Cardiff win + Cardiff clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.36); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +168%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +61%
Derby win + Derby clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.56); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.25); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%

Wrexham HOME v Watford AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals Wrexham 1.79 – 1.20 Watford

Wrexham 49% · draw 26% · Watford 24%

Wrexham win

49%

Draw

26%

Watford win

24%

Wrexham or draw

76%

either team

74%

draw or Watford

51%

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Wrexham clean sheet

30%

Watford clean sheet

17%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Wrexham			Draw			Watford
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	38.8%	—	—	38.4%	—	—	22.8%	—	—
2nd half	42.8%	—	—	32.8%	—	—	24.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Watford win + Watford clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.83); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +169%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +78%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.05); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
Wrexham win + Wrexham clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.04); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +62%

West Ham HOME v Charlton AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals West Ham 2.00 – 0.77 Charlton

West Ham 61% · draw 25% · Charlton 14%

West Ham win

61%

Draw

25%

Charlton win

14%

West Ham or draw

86%

either team

75%

draw or Charlton

39%

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

BTTS Yes

48%

BTTS No

52%

West Ham clean sheet

47%

Charlton clean sheet

14%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 10% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	West Ham			Draw			Charlton
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	47.8%	—	—	38.4%	—	—	13.9%	—	—
2nd half	53.3%	—	—	32.2%	—	—	14.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.03); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +51%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +48%
West Ham win + West Ham clean sheet — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +30%

Swansea HOME v Sheffield Utd AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals Swansea 1.43 – 1.29 Sheffield Utd

Swansea 37% · draw 31% · Sheffield Utd 32%

Swansea win

37%

Draw

31%

Sheffield Utd win

32%

Swansea or draw

68%

either team

69%

draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

BTTS Yes

54%

BTTS No

46%

Swansea clean sheet

28%

Sheffield Utd clean sheet

24%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%

Half-time markets

	Swansea			Draw			Sheffield Utd
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	31.4%	—	—	41.2%	—	—	27.3%	—	—
2nd half	34.6%	—	—	35.5%	—	—	29.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Sheffield Utd win + Sheffield Utd clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.92); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
Swansea win + Swansea clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.85); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.75); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%

Southampton HOME v Stoke City AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals Southampton 1.84 – 0.97 Stoke City

Southampton 60% · draw 23% · Stoke City 17%

Southampton win

60%

Draw

23%

Stoke City win

17%

Southampton or draw

83%

either team

77%

draw or Stoke City

40%

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

BTTS Yes

52%

BTTS No

48%

Southampton clean sheet

38%

Stoke City clean sheet

16%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%

Half-time markets

	Southampton			Draw			Stoke City
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.4%	—	—	39.2%	—	—	18.4%	—	—
2nd half	47.1%	—	—	33.3%	—	—	19.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.80); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +61%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.72); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +48%
Southampton win + Southampton clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +45%

QPR HOME v Bolton AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals QPR 1.63 – 1.45 Bolton

Thin data: QPR 335 matches, Bolton 12 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

QPR 43% · draw 24% · Bolton 33%

QPR win

43%

Draw

24%

Bolton win

33%

QPR or draw

67%

either team

76%

draw or Bolton

57%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

BTTS Yes

58%

BTTS No

42%

QPR clean sheet

24%

Bolton clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%

Half-time markets

	QPR			Draw			Bolton
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	33.3%	—	—	38.2%	—	—	28.5%	—	—
2nd half	36.3%	—	—	32.8%	—	—	30.8%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Bolton win + Bolton clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.80); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +121%
QPR win + QPR clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +90%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.40); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +89%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%

Preston HOME v Wolves AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals Preston 1.16 – 1.38 Wolves

Preston 31% · draw 33% · Wolves 36%

Preston win

31%

Draw

33%

Wolves win

36%

Preston or draw

64%

either team

67%

draw or Wolves

69%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Preston clean sheet

25%

Wolves clean sheet

31%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Preston			Draw			Wolves
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	25.4%	—	—	42.8%	—	—	31.8%	—	—
2nd half	27.9%	—	—	37.0%	—	—	35.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Preston win + Preston clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.94); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +115%
Wolves win + Wolves clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.35); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.57); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.49); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%

Blackburn HOME v Middlesbrough AWAY

14:00 · E1 · expected goals Blackburn 1.16 – 1.25 Middlesbrough

Blackburn 27% · draw 28% · Middlesbrough 45%

Blackburn win

27%

Draw

28%

Middlesbrough win

45%

Blackburn or draw

55%

either team

72%

draw or Middlesbrough

73%

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Blackburn clean sheet

29%

Middlesbrough clean sheet

31%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Blackburn			Draw			Middlesbrough
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	26.6%	—	—	44.3%	—	—	29.1%	—	—
2nd half	29.3%	—	—	38.4%	—	—	32.2%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Blackburn win + Blackburn clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +99%
Middlesbrough win + Middlesbrough clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +85%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.30); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +51%

Sunday 23 August (1 match) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
West BromvBurnley	West Brom H	38.4%	2.60	—	—	—
West BromvBurnley	Draw	31.3%	3.19	—	—	—
West BromvBurnley	Burnley A	30.2%	3.31	—	—	—

West Brom HOME v Burnley AWAY

11:00 · E1 · expected goals West Brom 1.10 – 1.20 Burnley

West Brom 38% · draw 31% · Burnley 30%

West Brom win

38%

Draw

31%

Burnley win

30%

West Brom or draw

70%

either team

69%

draw or Burnley

62%

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

BTTS Yes

48%

BTTS No

52%

West Brom clean sheet

30%

Burnley clean sheet

33%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 10%

Half-time markets

	West Brom			Draw			Burnley
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	25.8%	—	—	45.4%	—	—	28.8%	—	—
2nd half	28.6%	—	—	39.4%	—	—	32.0%	—	—

Correlated combinations

West Brom win + West Brom clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.09); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +98%
Burnley win + Burnley clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.39); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +81%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.98); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.19); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +46%