Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
UECL UEFA Europa Conference League (Europe) · 22 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Inter Turku HOME
v FC Copenhagen AWAY
16:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Inter Turku 1.19 – 1.72 FC Copenhagen
Thin data: Inter Turku 7 matches, FC Copenhagen 316 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Inter Turku 21%
· draw 23%
· FC Copenhagen 56%
Inter Turku clean sheet
18%
FC Copenhagen clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%
Half-time markets
| Inter Turku | Draw | FC Copenhagen |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 23.2% | — | — | 39.1% | — | — | 37.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.9% | — | — | 33.4% | — | — | 41.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Inter Turku win + Inter Turku clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.30); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +160%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.06); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- FC Copenhagen win + FC Copenhagen clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.07); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.79); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
Lincoln Red Imps FC HOME
v Larne AWAY
16:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Lincoln Red Imps FC 1.31 – 1.18 Larne
Lincoln Red Imps FC 40%
· draw 30%
· Larne 30%
Lincoln Red I… or draw
70%
Lincoln Red I… clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | Draw | Larne |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.1% | — | — | 43.5% | — | — | 26.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.3% | — | — | 37.6% | — | — | 29.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Larne win + Larne clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.44); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +105%
- Lincoln Red I… win + Lincoln Red I… clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +83%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +55%
Tromso HOME
v Brighton AWAY
17:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Tromso 1.11 – 1.61 Brighton
Tromso 32%
· draw 24%
· Brighton 45%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 9%
Half-time markets
| Tromso | Draw | Brighton |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 22.5% | — | — | 40.8% | — | — | 36.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.4% | — | — | 35.0% | — | — | 40.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Tromso win + Tromso clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.69); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +152%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- Brighton win + Brighton clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.84); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +62%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.23); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +53%
FC Nordsjaelland HOME
v FC ST. Gallen AWAY
17:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
FC Nordsjaelland 1.80 – 1.26 FC ST. Gallen
FC Nordsjaelland 44%
· draw 27%
· FC ST. Gallen 29%
FC Nordsjaell… or draw
71%
FC Nordsjaell… clean sheet
28%
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| FC Nordsjaelland | Draw | FC ST. Gallen |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.4% | — | — | 37.9% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.2% | — | — | 32.4% | — | — | 25.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC ST. Gallen win + FC ST. Gallen clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.72); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +163%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.33); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +84%
- FC Nordsjaell… win + FC Nordsjaell… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.28); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.25); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
FC Midtjylland HOME
v HNK Rijeka AWAY
17:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
FC Midtjylland 1.83 – 0.85 HNK Rijeka
FC Midtjylland 61%
· draw 22%
· HNK Rijeka 16%
FC Midtjylland or draw
84%
FC Midtjylland clean sheet
43%
HNK Rijeka clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 2–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%
Half-time markets
| FC Midtjylland | Draw | HNK Rijeka |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 43.6% | — | — | 40.0% | — | — | 16.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 48.6% | — | — | 33.9% | — | — | 17.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.49); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +54%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +51%
- FC Midtjylland win + FC Midtjylland clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +38%
KI Klaksvik HOME
v Riga AWAY
17:30 ·
UECL · expected goals
KI Klaksvik 1.37 – 1.08 Riga
KI Klaksvik 45%
· draw 28%
· Riga 26%
KI Klaksvik clean sheet
34%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| KI Klaksvik | Draw | Riga |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.3% | — | — | 43.7% | — | — | 24.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 35.9% | — | — | 37.8% | — | — | 26.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Riga win + Riga clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.09); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
- KI Klaksvik win + KI Klaksvik clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.02); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +71%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +66%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
PAOK HOME
v Brann AWAY
17:45 ·
UECL · expected goals
PAOK 1.94 – 1.09 Brann
PAOK 51%
· draw 25%
· Brann 24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 9%
Half-time markets
| PAOK | Draw | Brann |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.8% | — | — | 37.5% | — | — | 19.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 47.2% | — | — | 31.8% | — | — | 20.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.21); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.36); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%
- PAOK win + PAOK clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.50); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +49%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.15); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +40%
Vikingur Reykjavik HOME
v Borac Banja Luka AWAY
18:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Vikingur Reykjavik 1.61 – 0.90 Borac Banja Luka
Vikingur Reykjavik 52%
· draw 27%
· Borac Banja Luka 21%
Vikingur Reyk… or draw
79%
draw or Borac Banja L…
48%
Vikingur Reyk… clean sheet
41%
Borac Banja L… clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Vikingur Reykjavik | Draw | Borac Banja Luka |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.1% | — | — | 42.3% | — | — | 18.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.6% | — | — | 36.3% | — | — | 20.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Borac Banja L… win + Borac Banja L… clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.71); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +178%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.79); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +62%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +49%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.85); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +49%
Drita HOME
v Inter Club d'Escaldes AWAY
18:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Drita 1.63 – 1.31 Inter Club d'Escaldes
Thin data: Drita 36 matches, Inter Club d'Escaldes 22 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Drita 46%
· draw 28%
· Inter Club d'Escaldes 27%
draw or Inter Club d'…
54%
Inter Club d'… clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Drita | Draw | Inter Club d'Escaldes |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.8% | — | — | 39.2% | — | — | 26.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 38.2% | — | — | 33.7% | — | — | 28.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Inter Club d'… win + Inter Club d'… clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.17); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +134%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.12); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +79%
- Drita win + Drita clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.68); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +77%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.77); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Twente HOME
v Qarabag AWAY
18:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Twente 2.29 – 1.27 Qarabag
Twente 71%
· draw 14%
· Qarabag 16%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 7% · 3–1 7%
Half-time markets
| Twente | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 46.2% | — | — | 33.6% | — | — | 20.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 50.6% | — | — | 28.3% | — | — | 21.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.44); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +106%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 12% (fair 8.57); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +88%
- Twente win + Twente clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +48%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 56% (fair 1.78); naive multiplication would say 45%, off by +26%
FC Sion HOME
v Ajax AWAY
18:15 ·
UECL · expected goals
FC Sion 1.21 – 1.55 Ajax
FC Sion 37%
· draw 26%
· Ajax 37%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 8%
Half-time markets
| FC Sion | Draw | Ajax |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 24.9% | — | — | 40.6% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 27.1% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — | 38.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC Sion win + FC Sion clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.90); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- Ajax win + Ajax clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.34); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +68%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.29); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +53%
Gent HOME
v Hibernian AWAY
18:30 ·
UECL · expected goals
Gent 1.62 – 1.17 Hibernian
Gent 43%
· draw 21%
· Hibernian 36%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Gent | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.1% | — | — | 40.2% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 39.9% | — | — | 34.5% | — | — | 25.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Hibernian win + Hibernian clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.52); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +146%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.85); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- Gent win + Gent clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.10); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +67%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
FC Lugano HOME
v Maccabi Tel Aviv AWAY
18:30 ·
UECL · expected goals
FC Lugano 1.69 – 1.05 Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Lugano 58%
· draw 25%
· Maccabi Tel Aviv 17%
draw or Maccabi Tel A…
42%
Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| FC Lugano | Draw | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.8% | — | — | 40.4% | — | — | 20.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.0% | — | — | 34.6% | — | — | 22.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Maccabi Tel A… win + Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +172%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.72); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +62%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.34); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +55%
- FC Lugano win + FC Lugano clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.53); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +55%
Motherwell HOME
v SC Freiburg AWAY
18:30 ·
UECL · expected goals
Motherwell 1.30 – 1.40 SC Freiburg
Motherwell 37%
· draw 28%
· SC Freiburg 35%
Motherwell clean sheet
25%
SC Freiburg clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Motherwell | Draw | SC Freiburg |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.0% | — | — | 41.3% | — | — | 30.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.6% | — | — | 35.6% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Motherwell win + Motherwell clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.70); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
- SC Freiburg win + SC Freiburg clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.99); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +90%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +67%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.34); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +52%
Heart Of Midlothian HOME
v Rapid Vienna AWAY
18:45 ·
UECL · expected goals
Heart Of Midlothian 1.54 – 0.99 Rapid Vienna
Heart Of Midlothian 58%
· draw 23%
· Rapid Vienna 19%
Heart Of Midl… or draw
81%
Heart Of Midl… clean sheet
37%
Rapid Vienna clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 9% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | Rapid Vienna |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.7% | — | — | 42.5% | — | — | 20.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 40.8% | — | — | 36.5% | — | — | 22.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Rapid Vienna win + Rapid Vienna clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.64); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +155%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +61%
- Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.48); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Rangers HOME
v FK Jablonec AWAY
18:45 ·
UECL · expected goals
Rangers 2.11 – 1.02 FK Jablonec
Thin data: Rangers 357 matches, FK Jablonec 13 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Rangers 72%
· draw 17%
· FK Jablonec 11%
FK Jablonec clean sheet
12%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 2–0 10% · 1–1 10% · 1–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Rangers | Draw | FK Jablonec |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 46.4% | — | — | 36.1% | — | — | 17.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 51.3% | — | — | 30.4% | — | — | 18.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 6.94); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +75%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +73%
- Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.18); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +40%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.14); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +37%
Shamrock Rovers HOME
v KuPS AWAY
19:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Shamrock Rovers 1.21 – 0.88 KuPS
Shamrock Rovers 42%
· draw 30%
· KuPS 27%
Shamrock Rove… or draw
73%
Shamrock Rove… clean sheet
42%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 11%
Half-time markets
| Shamrock Rovers | Draw | KuPS |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.1% | — | — | 47.9% | — | — | 21.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.9% | — | — | 41.7% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- KuPS win + KuPS clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.85); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +116%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +94%
- Shamrock Rove… win + Shamrock Rove… clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.49); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +60%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%
HNK Hajduk Split HOME
v Raków Częstochowa AWAY
19:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
HNK Hajduk Split 0.91 – 1.17 Raków Częstochowa
Thin data: HNK Hajduk Split 20 matches, Raków Częstochowa 40 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
HNK Hajduk Split 26%
· draw 28%
· Raków Częstochowa 46%
HNK Hajduk Sp… or draw
54%
draw or Raków Częstoc…
74%
HNK Hajduk Sp… clean sheet
31%
Raków Częstoc… clean sheet
40%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 1–0 11%
Half-time markets
| HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 22.0% | — | — | 48.0% | — | — | 30.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 24.4% | — | — | 41.9% | — | — | 33.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- HNK Hajduk Sp… win + HNK Hajduk Sp… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +108%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.58); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +94%
- Raków Częstoc… win + Raków Częstoc… clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.66); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%
Getafe HOME
v FK Partizan AWAY
19:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Getafe 1.24 – 0.77 FK Partizan
Getafe 48%
· draw 26%
· FK Partizan 26%
FK Partizan clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 16% · 0–0 14% · 1–1 13% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Getafe | Draw | FK Partizan |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.0% | — | — | 48.5% | — | — | 18.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.3% | — | — | 42.3% | — | — | 20.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FK Partizan win + FK Partizan clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.62); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +131%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.92); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +101%
- Getafe win + Getafe clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +50%
- Getafe win + Over 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.87); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +33%
Dinamo Tirana HOME
v Pafos AWAY
19:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
Dinamo Tirana 1.17 – 1.31 Pafos
Thin data: Dinamo Tirana 6 matches, Pafos 32 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.
Dinamo Tirana 31%
· draw 29%
· Pafos 40%
Dinamo Tirana clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Dinamo Tirana | Draw | Pafos |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.1% | — | — | 43.5% | — | — | 30.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.7% | — | — | 37.7% | — | — | 33.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Dinamo Tirana win + Dinamo Tirana clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +107%
- Pafos win + Pafos clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.47); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +81%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.40); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
SC Braga HOME
v Austria Vienna AWAY
19:00 ·
UECL · expected goals
SC Braga 2.24 – 0.92 Austria Vienna
SC Braga 65%
· draw 21%
· Austria Vienna 14%
draw or Austria Vienna
35%
Austria Vienna clean sheet
11%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
| SC Braga | Draw | Austria Vienna |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 49.8% | — | — | 35.1% | — | — | 15.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 55.0% | — | — | 29.3% | — | — | 15.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.38); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +81%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +67%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.22); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +36%
- SC Braga win + SC Braga clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.83); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +32%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Rapid Vienna HOME
v Heart Of Midlothian AWAY
16:45 ·
UECL · expected goals
Rapid Vienna 1.25 – 1.22 Heart Of Midlothian
Rapid Vienna 32%
· draw 26%
· Heart Of Midlothian 42%
draw or Heart Of Midl…
68%
Rapid Vienna clean sheet
29%
Heart Of Midl… clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Rapid Vienna | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.5% | — | — | 43.6% | — | — | 27.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.5% | — | — | 37.8% | — | — | 30.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.04); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
- Rapid Vienna win + Rapid Vienna clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.87); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +91%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.67); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.40); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%