Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
GRE1 Super League (Greece) · 5 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Olympiakos Piraeus HOME
v Atromitos AWAY
18:30 ·
GRE1 · expected goals
Olympiakos Piraeus 1.91 – 0.65 Atromitos
Olympiakos Piraeus 75%
· draw 15%
· Atromitos 10%
Olympiakos Pi… or draw
90%
Olympiakos Pi… clean sheet
52%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 2–0 14% · 1–1 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Olympiakos Piraeus | Draw | Atromitos |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 47.9% | — | — | 40.0% | — | — | 12.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 53.6% | — | — | 33.5% | — | — | 12.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.22); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +61%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.58); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 43% (fair 2.33); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +38%
- Olympiakos Pi… win + Over 4.5 — 10% (fair 9.73); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +31%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
OFI HOME
v Volos NFC AWAY
16:30 ·
GRE1 · expected goals
OFI 1.79 – 1.15 Volos NFC
OFI 50%
· draw 26%
· Volos NFC 24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| OFI | Draw | Volos NFC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.5% | — | — | 38.7% | — | — | 21.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.7% | — | — | 33.0% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Volos NFC win + Volos NFC clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.11); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +177%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.93); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +62%
- OFI win + OFI clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.82); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +58%
Panathinaikos HOME
v Kifisia AWAY
18:00 ·
GRE1 · expected goals
Panathinaikos 2.07 – 0.72 Kifisia
Panathinaikos 67%
· draw 22%
· Kifisia 12%
Panathinaikos clean sheet
49%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Panathinaikos | Draw | Kifisia |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 49.6% | — | — | 37.6% | — | — | 12.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 55.3% | — | — | 31.4% | — | — | 13.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.29); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.80); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +50%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +46%
- Panathinaikos win + Over 4.5 — 13% (fair 7.59); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +27%
PAOK HOME
v Levadiakos AWAY
18:00 ·
GRE1 · expected goals
PAOK 2.42 – 1.08 Levadiakos
PAOK 62%
· draw 22%
· Levadiakos 15%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–1 8% · 3–1 8%
Half-time markets
| PAOK | Draw | Levadiakos |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 50.4% | — | — | 33.0% | — | — | 16.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 55.4% | — | — | 27.5% | — | — | 17.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 11% (fair 8.73); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +94%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.17); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +88%
- PAOK win + PAOK clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.26); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +36%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.91); naive multiplication would say 41%, off by +27%
Panetolikos HOME
v Asteras Tripolis AWAY
18:30 ·
GRE1 · expected goals
Panetolikos 1.11 – 0.95 Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos 40%
· draw 28%
· Asteras Tripolis 32%
draw or Asteras Tripo…
60%
Panetolikos clean sheet
39%
Asteras Tripo… clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12%
Half-time markets
| Panetolikos | Draw | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.4% | — | — | 48.3% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.8% | — | — | 42.2% | — | — | 26.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Asteras Tripo… win + Asteras Tripo… clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.08); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +98%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +96%
- Panetolikos win + Panetolikos clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.91); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +70%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.92); naive multiplication would say 39%, off by +35%