Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SP1 La Liga (Spain) · 12 fixtures across 7 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Rayo Vallecano HOME
v Alaves AWAY
19:00 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Rayo Vallecano 1.27 – 0.83 Alaves
Rayo Vallecano 56%
· draw 23%
· Alaves 21%
Rayo Vallecano or draw
79%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
44%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 13% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Alaves |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.1% | — | — | 47.5% | — | — | 19.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.2% | — | — | 41.3% | — | — | 21.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Alaves win + Alaves clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.52); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +130%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +92%
- Rayo Vallecano win + Rayo Vallecano clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.22); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +53%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.94); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Real Betis HOME
v Real Sociedad AWAY
19:00 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Real Betis 1.63 – 1.10 Real Sociedad
Real Betis 53%
· draw 26%
· Real Sociedad 21%
Real Betis clean sheet
33%
Real Sociedad clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Real Betis | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 37.1% | — | — | 40.7% | — | — | 22.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 41.1% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — | 24.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Real Sociedad win + Real Sociedad clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.86); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +156%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.73); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +63%
- Real Betis win + Real Betis clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.79); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +61%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.26); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Athletic Club HOME
v Sevilla AWAY
15:00 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Athletic Club 1.50 – 0.97 Sevilla
Athletic Club 48%
· draw 26%
· Sevilla 25%
Athletic Club clean sheet
38%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Athletic Club | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 36.2% | — | — | 43.1% | — | — | 20.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 40.3% | — | — | 37.2% | — | — | 22.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Sevilla win + Sevilla clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.45); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +151%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- Athletic Club win + Athletic Club clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.44); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.36); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +50%
Valencia HOME
v Celta Vigo AWAY
17:30 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Valencia 1.33 – 1.25 Celta Vigo
Valencia 42%
· draw 30%
· Celta Vigo 28%
Celta Vigo clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Valencia | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.8% | — | — | 42.6% | — | — | 27.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.9% | — | — | 36.8% | — | — | 30.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Celta Vigo win + Celta Vigo clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
- Valencia win + Valencia clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.84); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +89%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +59%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
Espanyol HOME
v Real Madrid AWAY
19:30 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Espanyol 0.92 – 1.93 Real Madrid
Espanyol 14%
· draw 21%
· Real Madrid 64%
Real Madrid clean sheet
40%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 11% · 0–2 11% · 1–1 11% · 1–2 10%
Half-time markets
| Espanyol | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 17.0% | — | — | 38.4% | — | — | 44.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 18.0% | — | — | 32.5% | — | — | 49.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.98); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.84); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +59%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +47%
- Real Madrid win + Real Madrid clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.97); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +40%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Atletico Madrid HOME
v Villarreal AWAY
15:00 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Atletico Madrid 2.03 – 1.23 Villarreal
Atletico Madrid 51%
· draw 25%
· Villarreal 24%
Atletico Madr… or draw
76%
Atletico Madr… clean sheet
29%
Villarreal clean sheet
13%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 8% · 1–0 7%
Half-time markets
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.5% | — | — | 35.9% | — | — | 21.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 46.7% | — | — | 30.5% | — | — | 22.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.74); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +92%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.14); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +74%
- Atletico Madr… win + Atletico Madr… clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.00); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +54%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.92); naive multiplication would say 39%, off by +33%
Getafe HOME
v Racing Santander AWAY
17:30 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Getafe 1.35 – 1.05 Racing Santander
Getafe 39%
· draw 29%
· Racing Santander 31%
draw or Racing Santan…
61%
Racing Santan… clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Getafe | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.4% | — | — | 44.2% | — | — | 23.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.0% | — | — | 38.3% | — | — | 25.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Racing Santan… win + Racing Santan… clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.11); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +122%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.84); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- Getafe win + Getafe clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.90); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.29); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +49%
Elche HOME
v Barcelona AWAY
19:30 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Elche 1.05 – 2.23 Barcelona
Elche 14%
· draw 17%
· Barcelona 69%
Likeliest scores: 1–2 10% · 0–2 9% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Elche | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 17.3% | — | — | 34.8% | — | — | 47.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 18.0% | — | — | 29.2% | — | — | 52.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.61); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +82%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.67); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +80%
- Barcelona win + Barcelona clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.23); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +39%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 49% (fair 2.03); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +33%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Osasuna HOME
v Levante AWAY
17:30 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Osasuna 1.43 – 1.08 Levante
Osasuna 45%
· draw 25%
· Levante 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Osasuna | Draw | Levante |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.5% | — | — | 43.0% | — | — | 23.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.3% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — | 25.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Levante win + Levante clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.49); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +129%
- Osasuna win + Osasuna clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.93); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +68%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +62%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%
Malaga HOME
v Deportivo La Coruna AWAY
19:30 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Malaga 1.43 – 1.13 Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga 48%
· draw 25%
· Deportivo La Coruna 27%
draw or Deportivo La …
52%
Deportivo La … clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Malaga | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 32.9% | — | — | 42.6% | — | — | 24.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 36.5% | — | — | 36.8% | — | — | 26.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Deportivo La … win + Deportivo La … clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.30); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +124%
- Malaga win + Malaga clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.16); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Valencia HOME
v Real Betis AWAY
19:00 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Valencia 1.22 – 1.32 Real Betis
Valencia 36%
· draw 28%
· Real Betis 36%
Real Betis clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 8%
Half-time markets
| Valencia | Draw | Real Betis |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.0% | — | — | 43.0% | — | — | 30.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 29.7% | — | — | 37.2% | — | — | 33.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Valencia win + Valencia clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +104%
- Real Betis win + Real Betis clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.48); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +57%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Real Madrid HOME
v Real Sociedad AWAY
19:00 ·
SP1 · expected goals
Real Madrid 2.32 – 0.88 Real Sociedad
Real Madrid 74%
· draw 16%
· Real Sociedad 10%
Real Madrid clean sheet
42%
Real Sociedad clean sheet
10%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
| Real Madrid | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 51.6% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — | 14.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 57.0% | — | — | 28.5% | — | — | 14.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.72); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +86%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.40); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +65%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.25); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +35%
- Real Madrid win + Real Madrid clean sheet — 37% (fair 2.69); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +29%