Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SUI1 Super League (Switzerland) · 6 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
FC Luzern HOME
v Lausanne AWAY
16:00 ·
SUI1 · expected goals
FC Luzern 1.90 – 1.34 Lausanne
FC Luzern 54%
· draw 23%
· Lausanne 23%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 7% · 2–0 7%
Half-time markets
| FC Luzern | Draw | Lausanne |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.2% | — | — | 36.6% | — | — | 24.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.9% | — | — | 31.2% | — | — | 25.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lausanne win + Lausanne clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.36); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +169%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.72); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +96%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.88); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
- FC Luzern win + FC Luzern clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.54); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +66%
FC Zurich HOME
v FC Basel 1893 AWAY
18:30 ·
SUI1 · expected goals
FC Zurich 1.35 – 1.51 FC Basel 1893
FC Zurich 31%
· draw 28%
· FC Basel 1893 42%
FC Basel 1893 clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| FC Zurich | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.9% | — | — | 40.0% | — | — | 32.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.3% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — | 35.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC Zurich win + FC Zurich clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.24); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +115%
- FC Basel 1893 win + FC Basel 1893 clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.06); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +88%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 2.99); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.50); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
BSC Young Boys HOME
v FC Vaduz AWAY
12:00 ·
SUI1 · expected goals
BSC Young Boys 2.00 – 1.04 FC Vaduz
BSC Young Boys 60%
· draw 21%
· FC Vaduz 18%
BSC Young Boys or draw
82%
BSC Young Boys clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10% · 1–0 9%
Half-time markets
| BSC Young Boys | Draw | FC Vaduz |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 44.4% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — | 18.5% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 49.1% | — | — | 31.4% | — | — | 19.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.20); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +71%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.50); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
- BSC Young Boys win + BSC Young Boys clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.29); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +44%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.18); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +40%
Grasshoppers HOME
v FC Sion AWAY
14:30 ·
SUI1 · expected goals
Grasshoppers 1.17 – 1.36 FC Sion
Grasshoppers 22%
· draw 24%
· FC Sion 53%
Grasshoppers clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 9%
Half-time markets
| Grasshoppers | Draw | FC Sion |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.9% | — | — | 43.0% | — | — | 31.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.4% | — | — | 37.2% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Grasshoppers win + Grasshoppers clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.75); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
- FC Sion win + FC Sion clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.43); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +80%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
FC Lugano HOME
v FC ST. Gallen AWAY
14:30 ·
SUI1 · expected goals
FC Lugano 1.52 – 1.24 FC ST. Gallen
FC Lugano 42%
· draw 29%
· FC ST. Gallen 29%
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 7%
Half-time markets
| FC Lugano | Draw | FC ST. Gallen |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 33.6% | — | — | 40.7% | — | — | 25.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.0% | — | — | 35.0% | — | — | 28.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- FC ST. Gallen win + FC ST. Gallen clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.62); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +126%
- FC Lugano win + FC Lugano clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.51); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.82); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.28); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +53%
FC Thun HOME
v Servette FC AWAY
15:00 ·
SUI1 · expected goals
FC Thun 2.11 – 1.36 Servette FC
FC Thun 45%
· draw 23%
· Servette FC 32%
Servette FC clean sheet
12%
Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 7% · 3–1 7%
Half-time markets
| FC Thun | Draw | Servette FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.3% | — | — | 34.7% | — | — | 23.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 46.2% | — | — | 29.5% | — | — | 24.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.29); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +109%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.95); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +80%
- FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.50); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 57% (fair 1.77); naive multiplication would say 44%, off by +27%