Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SUI1 4 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 5.31 | +128.1% | 3.00% |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over3.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 5.33 | +123.4% | 3.00% |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 6.77 | +106.1% | 3.00% |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 3.03 | +94.3% | — |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 3.02 | +91.0% | — |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 3.47 | +79.9% | 3.00% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | Totals | Over3.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 6.10 | +62.3% | 3.00% |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | BTTS | Yes— | 51.8% | 1.93 | 2.99 | +54.8% | 3.00% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | Totals | Over2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 3.21 | +52.5% | 3.00% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | BTTS | Yes— | 50.9% | 1.97 | 2.98 | +51.5% | 3.00% |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | BTTS | Yes— | 61.0% | 1.64 | 2.46 | +50.3% | 3.00% |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over1.5 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.78 | +49.3% | — |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | BTTS | Yes— | 60.2% | 1.66 | 2.48 | +49.3% | 3.00% |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over1.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.78 | +48.4% | — |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over1.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.91 | +44.3% | — |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | Totals | Over1.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.82 | +31.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | FC Thun A | 37.2% | 2.69 | 3.77 | +40.1% | 3.00% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | Draw | 23.2% | 4.31 | 4.90 | +13.7% | 0.88% |
| FC SionvFC Vaduz | FC Vaduz A | 15.6% | 6.43 | 6.64 | +3.4% | — |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | FC Lugano H | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.51 | -0.8% | — |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | FC ST. Gallen H | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.89 | -3.8% | — |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | FC Luzern A | 25.6% | 3.90 | 3.51 | -10.0% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 5.31 | +128.1% | 3.00% |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over3.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 5.33 | +123.4% | 3.00% |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over3.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 6.77 | +106.1% | 3.00% |
| FC ST. GallenvFC Luzern | Totals | Over2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 3.03 | +94.3% | — |
| FC Basel 1893vFC Thun | Totals | Over2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 3.02 | +91.0% | — |
| FC LuganovFC Zurich | Totals | Over2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 3.47 | +79.9% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
FC Lugano HOME
v FC Zurich AWAY
12:00 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC Lugano 1.76 – 0.99 FC Zurich
FC Lugano 66%
· draw 20%
· FC Zurich 14%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Lugano | 65.9% | 63.3% | 1.51 | +2.6pp |
| Draw | 19.8% | 20.8% | 4.33 | -1.0pp |
| FC Zurich | 14.3% | 15.9% | 5.51 | -1.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.6% | 49.3% | 1.91 | +26.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.4% | 50.7% | 1.85 | -26.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 29.4% | 3.47 | +22.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | 70.6% | 1.44 | -22.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.5% | 15.4% | 6.77 | +15.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.5% | 84.6% | 1.23 | -15.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.99 | +16.3pp |
| BTTS No | 48.2% | 64.5% | 1.64 | -16.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- FC Zurich win + FC Zurich clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +190%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.74); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +60%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.44); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +50%
FC Basel 1893 HOME
v FC Thun AWAY
14:30 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC Basel 1893 1.68 – 1.60 FC Thun
FC Basel 1893 41%
· draw 22%
· FC Thun 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Basel 1893 | 41.1% | 53.1% | 1.79 | -11.9pp |
| Draw | 21.7% | 22.7% | 4.00 | -1.0pp |
| FC Thun | 37.2% | 24.2% | 3.77 | +12.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 52.9% | 1.78 | +30.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.6% | 47.1% | 2.00 | -30.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 34.1% | 3.02 | +29.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | 65.9% | 1.57 | -29.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 41.9% | 20.1% | 5.33 | +21.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 58.1% | 79.9% | 1.34 | -21.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 61.0% | 43.8% | 2.46 | +17.3pp |
| BTTS No | 39.0% | 56.2% | 1.92 | -17.3pp |
FC Basel 1893 clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 8% · 1–2 8% · 2–2 7%
Correlated combinations
- FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.90); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +113%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +105%
- FC Basel 1893 win + FC Basel 1893 clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.28); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +100%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.80); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
FC Sion HOME
v FC Vaduz AWAY
14:30 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC Sion 1.53 – 1.04 FC Vaduz
FC Sion 61%
· draw 23%
· FC Vaduz 16%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC Sion | 61.2% | 69.1% | 1.38 | -7.8pp |
| Draw | 23.2% | 18.1% | 4.90 | +5.1pp |
| FC Vaduz | 15.6% | 12.9% | 6.64 | +2.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | 51.7% | 1.82 | +20.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.6% | 48.3% | 1.95 | -20.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 32.0% | 3.21 | +15.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 68.0% | 1.51 | -15.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 6.10 | +9.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 73.4% | 82.7% | 1.28 | -9.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.9% | 35.4% | 2.98 | +15.4pp |
| BTTS No | 49.1% | 64.6% | 1.63 | -15.4pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- FC Vaduz win + FC Vaduz clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.36); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +145%
- FC Sion win + FC Sion clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.70); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
FC ST. Gallen HOME
v FC Luzern AWAY
14:30 · SUI1 · expected goals
FC ST. Gallen 1.98 – 1.35 FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen 51%
· draw 23%
· FC Luzern 26%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 51.0% | 50.2% | 1.89 | +0.8pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.8% | 3.83 | -0.4pp |
| FC Luzern | 25.6% | 26.1% | 3.51 | -0.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 53.0% | 1.78 | +30.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 47.0% | 2.01 | -30.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 34.0% | 3.03 | +30.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | 66.0% | 1.56 | -30.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 42.9% | 20.1% | 5.31 | +22.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 57.1% | 79.9% | 1.33 | -22.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 60.2% | 43.9% | 2.48 | +16.3pp |
| BTTS No | 39.8% | 56.1% | 1.94 | -16.3pp |
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet
26%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 7% · 1–0 7%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.94); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +101%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 7.16); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +75%
- FC ST. Gallen win + FC ST. Gallen clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.58); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +64%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 54% (fair 1.84); naive multiplication would say 42%, off by +31%