N1 predictions

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

N1 Eredivisie (Netherlands) · 7 fixtures across 2 days

Saturday 22 August (4 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
NEC NijmegenvExcelsior	NEC Nijmegen H	62.0%	1.61	—	—	—
Fortuna SittardvAZ Alkmaar	AZ Alkmaar A	56.0%	1.78	—	—	—
HeerenveenvPEC Zwolle	Heerenveen H	49.4%	2.03	—	—	—
Sparta RotterdamvUtrecht	Utrecht A	42.2%	2.37	—	—	—
Sparta RotterdamvUtrecht	Sparta Rotterdam H	29.2%	3.42	—	—	—
Sparta RotterdamvUtrecht	Draw	28.5%	3.50	—	—	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Fortuna Sittard HOME v AZ Alkmaar AWAY

14:30 · N1 · expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.17 – 1.75 AZ Alkmaar

Fortuna Sittard 21% · draw 23% · AZ Alkmaar 56%

Fortuna Sitta… win

21%

Draw

23%

AZ Alkmaar win

56%

Fortuna Sitta… or draw

44%

either team

77%

draw or AZ Alkmaar

79%

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

Fortuna Sitta… clean sheet

17%

AZ Alkmaar clean sheet

31%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%

Half-time markets

	Fortuna Sittard			Draw			AZ Alkmaar
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	22.7%	—	—	38.9%	—	—	38.4%	—	—
2nd half	24.3%	—	—	33.3%	—	—	42.4%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Fortuna Sitta… win + Fortuna Sitta… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.57); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +166%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.06); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
AZ Alkmaar win + AZ Alkmaar clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.97); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +61%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.84); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%

Sparta Rotterdam HOME v Utrecht AWAY

16:45 · N1 · expected goals Sparta Rotterdam 1.19 – 1.37 Utrecht

Sparta Rotterdam 29% · draw 29% · Utrecht 42%

Sparta Rotter… win

29%

Draw

29%

Utrecht win

42%

Sparta Rotter… or draw

58%

either team

71%

draw or Utrecht

71%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

52%

BTTS No

48%

Sparta Rotter… clean sheet

25%

Utrecht clean sheet

30%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 9%

Half-time markets

	Sparta Rotterdam			Draw			Utrecht
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	26.1%	—	—	42.6%	—	—	31.3%	—	—
2nd half	28.6%	—	—	36.8%	—	—	34.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Sparta Rotter… win + Sparta Rotter… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.81); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +112%
Utrecht win + Utrecht clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.49); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +80%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +59%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%

NEC Nijmegen HOME v Excelsior AWAY

18:00 · N1 · expected goals NEC Nijmegen 2.17 – 1.20 Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen 62% · draw 20% · Excelsior 18%

NEC Nijmegen win

62%

Draw

20%

Excelsior win

18%

NEC Nijmegen or draw

82%

either team

80%

draw or Excelsior

38%

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

BTTS Yes

58%

BTTS No

42%

NEC Nijmegen clean sheet

30%

Excelsior clean sheet

11%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 8% · 1–0 7%

Half-time markets

	NEC Nijmegen			Draw			Excelsior
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	45.1%	—	—	34.9%	—	—	20.1%	—	—
2nd half	49.5%	—	—	29.5%	—	—	21.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.95); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +94%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.70); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +80%
NEC Nijmegen win + NEC Nijmegen clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.80); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +48%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 53% (fair 1.89); naive multiplication would say 41%, off by +30%

Heerenveen HOME v PEC Zwolle AWAY

19:00 · N1 · expected goals Heerenveen 1.93 – 1.27 PEC Zwolle

Heerenveen 49% · draw 26% · PEC Zwolle 24%

Heerenveen win

49%

Draw

26%

PEC Zwolle win

24%

Heerenveen or draw

76%

either team

74%

draw or PEC Zwolle

51%

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

BTTS Yes

58%

BTTS No

42%

Heerenveen clean sheet

28%

PEC Zwolle clean sheet

15%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 8% · 1–0 8%

Half-time markets

	Heerenveen			Draw			PEC Zwolle
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	40.4%	—	—	36.7%	—	—	22.9%	—	—
2nd half	44.4%	—	—	31.3%	—	—	24.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

PEC Zwolle win + PEC Zwolle clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.90); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +182%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.79); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +70%
Heerenveen win + Heerenveen clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.21); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +61%

Sunday 23 August (3 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
PSV EindhovenvGroningen	PSV Eindhoven H	78.9%	1.27	—	—	—
CambuurvFeyenoord	Feyenoord A	48.4%	2.07	—	—	—
GO Ahead EaglesvADO Den Haag	ADO Den Haag A	42.8%	2.34	—	—	—
GO Ahead EaglesvADO Den Haag	GO Ahead Eagles H	33.3%	3.00	—	—	—
CambuurvFeyenoord	Cambuur H	28.7%	3.49	—	—	—
GO Ahead EaglesvADO Den Haag	Draw	23.9%	4.19	—	—	—

GO Ahead Eagles HOME v ADO Den Haag AWAY

10:15 · N1 · expected goals GO Ahead Eagles 1.65 – 1.32 ADO Den Haag

GO Ahead Eagles 33% · draw 24% · ADO Den Haag 43%

GO Ahead Eagl… win

33%

Draw

24%

ADO Den Haag win

43%

GO Ahead Eagl… or draw

57%

either team

76%

draw or ADO Den Haag

67%

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

GO Ahead Eagl… clean sheet

27%

ADO Den Haag clean sheet

19%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 7%

Half-time markets

	GO Ahead Eagles			Draw			ADO Den Haag
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	35.0%	—	—	38.9%	—	—	26.0%	—	—
2nd half	38.5%	—	—	33.4%	—	—	28.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

ADO Den Haag win + ADO Den Haag clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.29); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +135%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
GO Ahead Eagl… win + GO Ahead Eagl… clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.70); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +77%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 5.86); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%

PSV Eindhoven HOME v Groningen AWAY

12:30 · N1 · expected goals PSV Eindhoven 2.81 – 0.97 Groningen

PSV Eindhoven 79% · draw 13% · Groningen 8%

PSV Eindhoven win

79%

Draw

13%

Groningen win

PSV Eindhoven or draw

92%

either team

87%

draw or Groningen

21%

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

BTTS Yes

55%

BTTS No

45%

PSV Eindhoven clean sheet

38%

Groningen clean sheet

Total Odd

50%

Total Even

50%

Likeliest scores: 2–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 3–0 8% · 3–1 8%

Half-time markets

	PSV Eindhoven			Draw			Groningen
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	57.4%	—	—	29.6%	—	—	13.0%	—	—
2nd half	62.9%	—	—	24.1%	—	—	13.0%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 21% (fair 4.79); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +84%
Draw + Under 4.5 — 13% (fair 7.60); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +33%
draw or Groningen + Under 3.5 — 15% (fair 6.51); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +30%
PSV Eindhoven win + PSV Eindhoven clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.81); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +24%

Cambuur HOME v Feyenoord AWAY

14:45 · N1 · expected goals Cambuur 1.27 – 2.08 Feyenoord

Cambuur 29% · draw 23% · Feyenoord 48%

Cambuur win

29%

Draw

23%

Feyenoord win

48%

Cambuur or draw

52%

either team

77%

draw or Feyenoord

71%

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

BTTS Yes

59%

BTTS No

41%

Cambuur clean sheet

13%

Feyenoord clean sheet

28%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–2 10% · 1–1 10% · 0–2 8% · 0–1 7%

Half-time markets

	Cambuur			Draw			Feyenoord
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	21.8%	—	—	35.4%	—	—	42.8%	—	—
2nd half	23.0%	—	—	30.1%	—	—	46.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 25% (fair 3.93); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +97%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.45); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +77%
Feyenoord win + Feyenoord clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.12); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +55%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 54% (fair 1.87); naive multiplication would say 41%, off by +31%