Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
N1 9 fixtures across 3 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 6.19 | +144.4% | 3.00% |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over3.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 4.06 | +134.6% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 4.05 | +118.6% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | BTTS | Yes— | 55.6% | 1.80 | 3.84 | +113.5% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | 5.92 | +111.8% | 3.00% |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 5.73 | +111.6% | 3.00% |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.5% | 3.07 | 6.39 | +108.1% | 3.00% |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | BTTS | Yes— | 63.0% | 1.59 | 3.28 | +106.6% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over2.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 2.66 | +103.2% | — |
| GroningenvUtrecht | Totals | Over3.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 7.71 | +102.6% | 3.00% |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 2.99 | +82.1% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 3.17 | +81.5% | — |
| GroningenvUtrecht | Totals | Over2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 3.74 | +76.2% | 3.00% |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | 2.95 | +72.6% | 3.00% |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | BTTS | Yes— | 57.2% | 1.75 | 2.90 | +65.8% | 3.00% |
| GroningenvUtrecht | BTTS | Yes— | 51.7% | 1.93 | 3.20 | +65.5% | 3.00% |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | BTTS | Yes— | 55.8% | 1.79 | 2.80 | +56.1% | 3.00% |
| GroningenvUtrecht | Totals | Over1.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 2.12 | +52.6% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.87 | +48.8% | — |
| HeerenveenvTwente | BTTS | Yes— | 57.9% | 1.73 | 2.55 | +47.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| GroningenvUtrecht | Utrecht A | 41.5% | 2.41 | 3.04 | +26.3% | 3.00% |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | PEC Zwolle H | 19.9% | 5.02 | 5.50 | +9.5% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Feyenoord A | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.70 | +4.1% | — |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Twente A | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.20 | +4.0% | — |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 4.46 | -0.2% | — |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.69 | -11.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 6.19 | +144.4% | 3.00% |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over3.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | 5.92 | +111.8% | 3.00% |
| HeerenveenvTwente | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 5.73 | +111.6% | 3.00% |
| GroningenvUtrecht | Totals | Over3.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 7.71 | +102.6% | 3.00% |
| PEC ZwollevAjax | Totals | Over2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 2.99 | +82.1% | — |
| Sparta RotterdamvFeyenoord | Totals | Over2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 3.17 | +81.5% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Sparta Rotterdam HOME
v Feyenoord AWAY
10:15 · N1 · expected goals
Sparta Rotterdam 1.16 – 1.84 Feyenoord
Sparta Rotterdam 17%
· draw 21%
· Feyenoord 61%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 17.4% | 20.6% | 4.43 | -3.3pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 23.0% | 4.01 | -1.6pp |
| Feyenoord | 61.3% | 56.4% | 1.70 | +4.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 50.3% | 1.87 | +29.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 49.7% | 1.90 | -29.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +25.8pp |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -25.8pp |
| Over 3.5 | 35.8% | 17.7% | 5.92 | +18.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 64.2% | 82.3% | 1.27 | -18.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.8% | 38.4% | 2.80 | +17.3pp |
| BTTS No | 44.2% | 61.6% | 1.75 | -17.3pp |
Sparta Rotter… or draw
39%
Sparta Rotter… clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Sparta Rotter… win + Sparta Rotter… clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.56); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +181%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.05); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +64%
- Feyenoord win + Feyenoord clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.85); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Groningen HOME
v Utrecht AWAY
12:30 · N1 · expected goals
Groningen 1.22 – 1.34 Utrecht
Groningen 33%
· draw 26%
· Utrecht 42%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Groningen | 32.8% | 41.8% | 2.26 | -9.1pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.5% | 3.37 | -1.8pp |
| Utrecht | 41.5% | 30.6% | 3.04 | +10.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 72.1% | 44.5% | 2.12 | +27.6pp |
| Under 1.5 | 27.9% | 55.5% | 1.70 | -27.6pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 27.1% | 3.74 | +20.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 72.9% | 1.39 | -20.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 26.3% | 13.3% | 7.71 | +13.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 86.7% | 1.18 | -13.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 51.7% | 33.8% | 3.20 | +17.9pp |
| BTTS No | 48.3% | 66.2% | 1.64 | -17.9pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Groningen win + Groningen clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.58); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +105%
- Utrecht win + Utrecht clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.55); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +59%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
PEC Zwolle HOME
v Ajax AWAY
12:30 · N1 · expected goals
PEC Zwolle 1.18 – 1.99 Ajax
PEC Zwolle 20%
· draw 22%
· Ajax 58%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 19.9% | 16.2% | 5.50 | +3.7pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 20.4% | 4.46 | +2.0pp |
| Ajax | 57.7% | 63.4% | 1.51 | -5.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 52.5% | 1.79 | +29.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 47.5% | 1.99 | -29.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 33.8% | 2.99 | +27.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | 66.2% | 1.53 | -27.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 39.5% | 17.0% | 6.19 | +22.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 60.5% | 83.0% | 1.27 | -22.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.2% | 37.3% | 2.90 | +19.9pp |
| BTTS No | 42.8% | 62.7% | 1.73 | -19.9pp |
PEC Zwolle clean sheet
14%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 10% · 0–2 8% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.52); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.71); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +72%
- Ajax win + Ajax clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.81); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +52%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.01); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +35%
Heerenveen HOME
v Twente AWAY
14:45 · N1 · expected goals
Heerenveen 1.37 – 1.68 Twente
Heerenveen 29%
· draw 24%
· Twente 47%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Heerenveen | 28.9% | 32.1% | 2.91 | -3.2pp |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.9% | 3.69 | -1.0pp |
| Twente | 47.2% | 42.9% | 2.20 | +4.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.3% | 52.6% | 1.79 | +27.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.7% | 47.4% | 1.99 | -27.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 34.1% | 2.95 | +24.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | 65.9% | 1.53 | -24.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.0% | 18.2% | 5.73 | +18.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 63.0% | 81.8% | 1.28 | -18.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 57.9% | 43.0% | 2.55 | +15.0pp |
| BTTS No | 42.1% | 57.0% | 1.92 | -15.0pp |
Heerenveen clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 7% · 2–1 7%
Correlated combinations
- Heerenveen win + Heerenveen clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.44); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.35); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +86%
- Twente win + Twente clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.95); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +79%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 17% (fair 6.04); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +63%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| TelstarvSparta Rotterdam | Telstar H | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — | — |
| TelstarvSparta Rotterdam | Sparta Rotterdam A | 29.2% | 3.42 | — | — | — |
| TelstarvSparta Rotterdam | Draw | 25.9% | 3.87 | — | — | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Telstar HOME
v Sparta Rotterdam AWAY
18:00 · N1 · expected goals
Telstar 1.62 – 1.11 Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar 45%
· draw 26%
· Sparta Rotterdam 29%
draw or Sparta Rotter…
55%
Sparta Rotter… clean sheet
20%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Sparta Rotter… win + Sparta Rotter… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.88); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +153%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.75); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +64%
- Telstar win + Telstar clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.83); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +61%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.20); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | PSV Eindhoven A | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.64 | +21.7% | 3.00% |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Utrecht H | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.35 | -4.4% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 3.67 | -5.8% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | AZ Alkmaar A | 33.6% | 2.97 | 2.70 | -9.3% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Draw | 13.6% | 7.34 | 4.22 | -42.5% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Excelsior H | 11.9% | 8.37 | 4.70 | -43.9% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over3.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 4.06 | +134.6% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 4.05 | +118.6% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | BTTS | Yes— | 55.6% | 1.80 | 3.84 | +113.5% | — |
| UtrechtvAZ Alkmaar | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.5% | 3.07 | 6.39 | +108.1% | 3.00% |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | BTTS | Yes— | 63.0% | 1.59 | 3.28 | +106.6% | — |
| ExcelsiorvPSV Eindhoven | Totals | Over2.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 2.66 | +103.2% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Willem II HOME
v NEC Nijmegen AWAY
14:30 · N1 · expected goals
Willem II 1.24 – 1.82 NEC Nijmegen
Willem II 20%
· draw 25%
· NEC Nijmegen 56%
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 8% · 0–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- Willem II win + Willem II clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.06); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +167%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.35); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +83%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +66%
- NEC Nijmegen win + NEC Nijmegen clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.21); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +63%
Utrecht HOME
v AZ Alkmaar AWAY
16:45 · N1 · expected goals
Utrecht 1.51 – 1.33 AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht 41%
· draw 26%
· AZ Alkmaar 34%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Utrecht | 40.7% | 40.1% | 2.35 | +0.5pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.1% | 3.67 | +0.6pp |
| AZ Alkmaar | 33.6% | 34.7% | 2.70 | -1.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 56.5% | 1.80 | +20.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 43.5% | 2.34 | -20.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 22.9% | 4.05 | +31.1pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | 77.1% | 1.20 | -31.1pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.5% | 16.9% | 6.39 | +15.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.5% | 83.1% | 1.30 | -15.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 28.8% | 3.84 | +26.8pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 71.2% | 1.55 | -26.8pp |
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 8% · 1–2 8%
Correlated combinations
- AZ Alkmaar win + AZ Alkmaar clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
- Utrecht win + Utrecht clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.97); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +85%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.97); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.40); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%
Excelsior HOME
v PSV Eindhoven AWAY
18:00 · N1 · expected goals
Excelsior 1.28 – 2.79 PSV Eindhoven
Excelsior 12%
· draw 14%
· PSV Eindhoven 74%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Excelsior | 11.9% | 19.4% | 4.70 | -7.5pp |
| Draw | 13.6% | 21.8% | 4.22 | -8.2pp |
| PSV Eindhoven | 74.4% | 58.7% | 1.64 | +15.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 90.8% | 64.8% | 1.59 | +26.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 9.2% | 35.2% | 2.94 | -26.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 76.3% | 39.1% | 2.66 | +37.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 23.7% | 60.9% | 1.71 | -37.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 57.8% | 28.3% | 4.06 | +29.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 42.2% | 71.7% | 1.60 | -29.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 63.0% | 34.5% | 3.28 | +28.5pp |
| BTTS No | 37.0% | 65.5% | 1.73 | -28.5pp |
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–2 8% · 1–3 8% · 0–2 7% · 1–1 6%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.10); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +126%
- PSV Eindhoven win + PSV Eindhoven clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +35%
- Excelsior or draw + Under 3.5 — 16% (fair 6.20); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +23%
- PSV Eindhoven win + BTTS No — 26% (fair 3.88); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +18%
Fortuna Sittard HOME
v Cambuur AWAY
19:00 · N1 · expected goals
Fortuna Sittard 1.59 – 1.17 Cambuur
Fortuna Sittard 52%
· draw 25%
· Cambuur 23%
Fortuna Sitta… or draw
77%
Fortuna Sitta… clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Cambuur win + Cambuur clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.41); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +142%
- Fortuna Sitta… win + Fortuna Sitta… clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +67%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.80); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +67%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.23); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%