Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
MTN8 2 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over2.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 4.73 | +73.3% | 3.00% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over3.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 9.56 | +70.6% | 2.06% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over2.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 4.76 | +69.7% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over3.5 | 17.1% | 5.84 | 9.56 | +63.7% | 1.86% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over1.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 2.53 | +59.7% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over1.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 2.55 | +58.6% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | BTTS | Yes— | 43.5% | 2.30 | 3.58 | +55.7% | 3.00% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | BTTS | Yes— | 45.4% | 2.20 | 3.16 | +43.4% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Golden Arrows A | 23.6% | 4.23 | 5.60 | +32.1% | 1.75% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Draw | 30.9% | 3.23 | 3.37 | +4.3% | — |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Amazulu H | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.38 | -5.2% | — |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Draw | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.05 | -8.0% | — |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Sekhukhune United A | 30.0% | 3.33 | 2.87 | -13.9% | — |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Kaizer Chiefs H | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.61 | -26.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over2.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 4.73 | +73.3% | 3.00% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over3.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 9.56 | +70.6% | 2.06% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over2.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 4.76 | +69.7% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over3.5 | 17.1% | 5.84 | 9.56 | +63.7% | 1.86% |
| AmazuluvSekhukhune United | Totals | Over1.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 2.53 | +59.7% | 3.00% |
| Kaizer ChiefsvGolden Arrows | Totals | Over1.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 2.55 | +58.6% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Amazulu HOME
v Sekhukhune United AWAY
13:00 · MTN8 · expected goals
Amazulu 1.15 – 0.99 Sekhukhune United
Amazulu 40%
· draw 30%
· Sekhukhune United 30%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Amazulu | 39.8% | 38.6% | 2.38 | +1.1pp |
| Draw | 30.2% | 29.7% | 3.05 | +0.5pp |
| Sekhukhune United | 30.0% | 31.7% | 2.87 | -1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 63.0% | 38.3% | 2.53 | +24.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 37.0% | 61.7% | 1.57 | -24.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 36.6% | 21.5% | 4.73 | +15.2pp |
| Under 2.5 | 63.4% | 78.5% | 1.29 | -15.2pp |
| Over 3.5 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 9.56 | +7.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 82.2% | 89.4% | 1.13 | -7.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 45.4% | 31.3% | 3.16 | +14.1pp |
| BTTS No | 54.6% | 68.7% | 1.44 | -14.1pp |
draw or Sekhukhune Un…
60%
Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet
32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 11%
Correlated combinations
- Sekhukhune Un… win + Sekhukhune Un… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.20); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.39); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +88%
- Amazulu win + Amazulu clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.01); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +72%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.00); naive multiplication would say 36%, off by +38%
Kaizer Chiefs HOME
v Golden Arrows AWAY
16:00 · MTN8 · expected goals
Kaizer Chiefs 1.29 – 0.81 Golden Arrows
Kaizer Chiefs 45%
· draw 31%
· Golden Arrows 24%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kaizer Chiefs | 45.5% | 58.2% | 1.61 | -12.8pp |
| Draw | 30.9% | 26.6% | 3.37 | +4.3pp |
| Golden Arrows | 23.6% | 15.1% | 5.60 | +8.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 62.1% | 38.0% | 2.55 | +24.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 37.9% | 62.0% | 1.57 | -24.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 35.7% | 21.4% | 4.76 | +14.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 78.6% | 1.30 | -14.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 9.56 | +6.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 82.9% | 89.4% | 1.13 | -6.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 43.5% | 27.0% | 3.58 | +16.5pp |
| BTTS No | 56.5% | 73.0% | 1.33 | -16.5pp |
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet
44%
Golden Arrows clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 13% · 2–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Golden Arrows win + Golden Arrows clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +133%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.63); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +92%
- Kaizer Chiefs win + Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +51%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 26% (fair 3.83); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +35%