Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
BRA1 8 fixtures across 2 days
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 8.33 | +180.5% | 3.00% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.5% | 2.24 | 5.91 | +163.3% | — |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 5.49 | +149.6% | — |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 4.41 | +143.2% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 5.98 | +139.3% | 3.00% |
| FlamengovVitoria | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 7.47 | +137.8% | 3.00% |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 4.71 | +137.5% | — |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | 7.91 | +131.2% | 3.00% |
| SantosvAtletico Paranaense | Totals | Over2.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 5.03 | +115.9% | 3.00% |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | 8.60 | +113.9% | 3.00% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 8.70 | +109.5% | 3.00% |
| FlamengovVitoria | Totals | Over2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 3.76 | +100.3% | — |
| SantosvAtletico Paranaense | Totals | Over3.5 | 22.7% | 4.40 | 8.43 | +91.6% | 3.00% |
| CruzeirovMirassol | Totals | Over2.5 | 40.6% | 2.47 | 4.71 | +91.2% | 3.00% |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | BTTS | Yes— | 55.3% | 1.81 | 3.39 | +87.2% | 3.00% |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 2.60 | +84.3% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over3.5 | 20.4% | 4.90 | 8.75 | +78.7% | 2.54% |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 2.22 | +73.6% | — |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 2.33 | +73.6% | — |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 2.45 | +71.2% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| CruzeirovMirassol | Mirassol A | 33.5% | 2.99 | 5.19 | +73.7% | 3.00% |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Corinthians A | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.47 | +29.1% | 2.95% |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Internacional A | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5.95 | +6.9% | — |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Bahia H | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.98 | +5.2% | 1.34% |
| FlamengovVitoria | Draw | 17.8% | 5.61 | 5.87 | +4.7% | — |
| SantosvAtletico Paranaense | Atletico Paranaense A | 27.9% | 3.58 | 3.54 | -1.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over3.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 8.33 | +180.5% | 3.00% |
| RB BragantinovCorinthians | Totals | Over2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 5.49 | +149.6% | — |
| BahiavVasco DA Gama | Totals | Over2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 4.41 | +143.2% | — |
| FlamengovVitoria | Totals | Over3.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 7.47 | +137.8% | 3.00% |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 4.71 | +137.5% | — |
| PalmeirasvInternacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | 7.91 | +131.2% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Cruzeiro HOME
v Mirassol AWAY
14:00 · BRA1 · expected goals
Cruzeiro 1.21 – 1.08 Mirassol
Cruzeiro 40%
· draw 26%
· Mirassol 33%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Cruzeiro | 40.3% | 56.7% | 1.69 | -16.4pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.9% | 3.57 | +0.3pp |
| Mirassol | 33.5% | 17.4% | 5.19 | +16.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 40.3% | 2.33 | +26.3pp |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 59.7% | 1.58 | -26.3pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 20.9% | 4.71 | +19.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 79.1% | 1.25 | -19.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 7.98 | +8.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 79.2% | 87.3% | 1.16 | -8.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.8% | 33.5% | 2.95 | +14.4pp |
| BTTS No | 52.2% | 66.5% | 1.48 | -14.4pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Mirassol win + Mirassol clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +100%
- Cruzeiro win + Cruzeiro clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +78%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.02); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +76%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.17); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +45%
Bahia HOME
v Vasco DA Gama AWAY
19:00 · BRA1 · expected goals
Bahia 1.71 – 1.19 Vasco DA Gama
Bahia 53%
· draw 25%
· Vasco DA Gama 21%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Bahia | 53.3% | 48.1% | 1.98 | +5.1pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.0% | 3.43 | -1.7pp |
| Vasco DA Gama | 21.4% | 24.8% | 3.71 | -3.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 42.3% | 2.22 | +35.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 57.7% | 1.63 | -35.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 22.5% | 4.41 | +32.6pp |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | 77.5% | 1.28 | -32.6pp |
| Over 3.5 | 33.7% | 12.2% | 8.33 | +21.5pp |
| Under 3.5 | 66.3% | 87.8% | 1.15 | -21.5pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.3% | 31.5% | 3.39 | +23.8pp |
| BTTS No | 44.7% | 68.5% | 1.56 | -23.8pp |
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
18%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Correlated combinations
- Vasco DA Gama win + Vasco DA Gama clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.21); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +155%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.04); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- Bahia win + Bahia clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +64%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.66); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
Palmeiras HOME
v Internacional AWAY
19:00 · BRA1 · expected goals
Palmeiras 1.83 – 0.86 Internacional
Palmeiras 58%
· draw 24%
· Internacional 18%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Palmeiras | 57.9% | 61.0% | 1.57 | -3.1pp |
| Draw | 24.1% | 24.1% | 3.83 | +0.0pp |
| Internacional | 18.0% | 14.9% | 5.95 | +3.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 40.3% | 2.33 | +34.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 59.7% | 1.57 | -34.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 21.0% | 4.71 | +29.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 79.0% | 1.25 | -29.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 29.2% | 12.8% | 7.91 | +16.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 70.8% | 87.2% | 1.16 | -16.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.3% | 31.8% | 3.08 | +17.5pp |
| BTTS No | 50.7% | 68.2% | 1.43 | -17.5pp |
Internacional clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 2–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.45); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +53%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +52%
- Palmeiras win + Palmeiras clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.86); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +39%
RB Bragantino HOME
v Corinthians AWAY
21:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
RB Bragantino 1.30 – 1.19 Corinthians
RB Bragantino 35%
· draw 27%
· Corinthians 37%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| RB Bragantino | 35.3% | 43.7% | 2.17 | -8.4pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 29.5% | 3.16 | -2.1pp |
| Corinthians | 37.3% | 26.8% | 3.47 | +10.5pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 36.0% | 2.60 | +34.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 64.0% | 1.47 | -34.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.5% | 17.8% | 5.49 | +27.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 82.2% | 1.19 | -27.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 11.6% | 8.60 | +13.3pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 88.4% | 1.13 | -13.3pp |
| BTTS Yes | 50.8% | 32.2% | 3.05 | +18.6pp |
| BTTS No | 49.2% | 67.8% | 1.45 | -18.6pp |
RB Bragantino clean sheet
30%
Corinthians clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Corinthians win + Corinthians clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.41); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +102%
- RB Bragantino win + RB Bragantino clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.64); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.65); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.42); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +55%
Santos HOME
v Atletico Paranaense AWAY
21:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Santos 1.29 – 1.09 Atletico Paranaense
Santos 45%
· draw 27%
· Atletico Paranaense 28%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Santos | 45.0% | 45.1% | 2.10 | -0.1pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.7% | 3.24 | -1.6pp |
| Atletico Paranaense | 27.9% | 26.2% | 3.54 | +1.7pp |
| Over 1.5 | 68.6% | 38.8% | 2.41 | +29.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 31.4% | 61.2% | 1.53 | -29.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.9% | 19.5% | 5.03 | +23.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 80.5% | 1.22 | -23.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 8.43 | +10.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 77.3% | 88.1% | 1.14 | -10.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.1% | 34.6% | 2.85 | +14.6pp |
| BTTS No | 50.9% | 65.4% | 1.51 | -14.6pp |
draw or Atletico Para…
55%
Atletico Para… clean sheet
28%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 10% · 0–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Atletico Para… win + Atletico Para… clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +109%
- Santos win + Santos clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.21); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +75%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.84); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.28); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +49%
Flamengo HOME
v Vitoria AWAY
22:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Flamengo 2.06 – 0.76 Vitoria
Flamengo 73%
· draw 18%
· Vitoria 9%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Flamengo | 72.9% | 78.2% | 1.23 | -5.3pp |
| Draw | 17.8% | 15.1% | 5.87 | +2.7pp |
| Vitoria | 9.3% | 6.6% | 12.07 | +2.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 48.2% | 1.94 | +28.4pp |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 51.8% | 1.81 | -28.4pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 26.0% | 3.76 | +27.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 74.0% | 1.32 | -27.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 31.8% | 13.8% | 7.47 | +18.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 68.2% | 86.2% | 1.20 | -18.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.6% | 29.4% | 3.29 | +18.3pp |
| BTTS No | 52.4% | 70.6% | 1.37 | -18.3pp |
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 10% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +69%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +48%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +48%
- Flamengo win + Flamengo clean sheet — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +28%
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Palmeiras A | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.58 | +9.9% | 1.57% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | RB Bragantino A | 28.3% | 3.54 | 3.68 | +4.1% | — |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Atletico Paranaense H | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.04 | -9.8% | — |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Draw | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.25 | -10.5% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Fluminense H | 30.6% | 3.26 | 2.81 | -14.0% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.09 | -17.3% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over2.5 | 44.5% | 2.24 | 5.91 | +163.3% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 5.98 | +139.3% | 3.00% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over3.5 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 8.70 | +109.5% | 3.00% |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over3.5 | 20.4% | 4.90 | 8.75 | +78.7% | 2.54% |
| Atletico ParanaensevRB Bragantino | Totals | Over1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 2.45 | +71.2% | — |
| FluminensevPalmeiras | Totals | Over1.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | 2.54 | +67.9% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Fluminense HOME
v Palmeiras AWAY
19:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Fluminense 1.04 – 1.23 Palmeiras
Fluminense 31%
· draw 27%
· Palmeiras 43%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Fluminense | 30.6% | 33.4% | 2.81 | -2.7pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 30.2% | 3.09 | -3.4pp |
| Palmeiras | 42.6% | 36.4% | 2.58 | +6.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 66.1% | 36.9% | 2.54 | +29.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 33.9% | 63.1% | 1.48 | -29.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 40.0% | 15.6% | 5.98 | +24.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 84.4% | 1.11 | -24.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 8.75 | +9.0pp |
| Under 3.5 | 79.6% | 88.6% | 1.12 | -9.0pp |
| BTTS Yes | 47.4% | 32.5% | 3.01 | +14.9pp |
| BTTS No | 52.6% | 67.5% | 1.45 | -14.9pp |
Fluminense clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 11% · 1–0 10%
Correlated combinations
- Fluminense win + Fluminense clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.45); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +106%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.07); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +77%
- Palmeiras win + Palmeiras clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.09); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.14); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +44%
Atletico Paranaense HOME
v RB Bragantino AWAY
21:30 · BRA1 · expected goals
Atletico Paranaense 1.40 – 1.05 RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense 44%
· draw 27%
· RB Bragantino 28%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 44.2% | 46.5% | 2.04 | -2.3pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.5% | 3.25 | -1.0pp |
| RB Bragantino | 28.3% | 25.0% | 3.68 | +3.3pp |
| Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 38.1% | 2.45 | +31.9pp |
| Under 1.5 | 30.0% | 61.9% | 1.51 | -31.9pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 15.8% | 5.91 | +28.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 84.2% | 1.11 | -28.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 24.1% | 11.5% | 8.70 | +12.6pp |
| Under 3.5 | 75.9% | 88.5% | 1.13 | -12.6pp |
| BTTS Yes | 49.6% | 32.0% | 3.05 | +17.6pp |
| BTTS No | 50.4% | 68.0% | 1.43 | -17.6pp |
Atletico Para… or draw
72%
Atletico Para… clean sheet
35%
RB Bragantino clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 9% · 2–1 9%
Correlated combinations
- RB Bragantino win + RB Bragantino clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.49); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +128%
- Atletico Para… win + Atletico Para… clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.85); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +66%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.76); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +65%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.35); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +51%