Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
BRA1 Brasileirão Série A (Brazil) · 9 fixtures across 3 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Internacional HOME
v Atletico-MG AWAY
21:30 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Internacional 1.29 – 1.06 Atletico-MG
Internacional 44%
· draw 30%
· Atletico-MG 26%
Internacional clean sheet
35%
Atletico-MG clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 12% · 0–0 10% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Internacional | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.0% | — | — | 44.8% | — | — | 24.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.6% | — | — | 38.9% | — | — | 26.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Atletico-MG win + Atletico-MG clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +113%
- Internacional win + Internacional clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.04); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +72%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.91); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +72%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.23); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +47%
Cruzeiro HOME
v Flamengo AWAY
23:30 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Cruzeiro 1.06 – 1.15 Flamengo
Cruzeiro 28%
· draw 26%
· Flamengo 46%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 11% · 1–0 11%
Half-time markets
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.4% | — | — | 46.5% | — | — | 28.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.2% | — | — | 40.5% | — | — | 31.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Cruzeiro win + Cruzeiro clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.94); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +95%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.19); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +82%
- Flamengo win + Flamengo clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +80%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 48% (fair 2.08); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +42%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
RB Bragantino HOME
v Gremio AWAY
19:00 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
RB Bragantino 1.38 – 1.21 Gremio
RB Bragantino 41%
· draw 26%
· Gremio 33%
RB Bragantino clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 9%
Half-time markets
| RB Bragantino | Draw | Gremio |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 31.3% | — | — | 42.4% | — | — | 26.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.5% | — | — | 36.6% | — | — | 28.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Gremio win + Gremio clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.81); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +112%
- RB Bragantino win + RB Bragantino clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +82%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.50); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +58%
Palmeiras HOME
v Vasco DA Gama AWAY
19:00 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Palmeiras 2.08 – 0.85 Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras 68%
· draw 21%
· Vasco DA Gama 12%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
13%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Palmeiras | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 48.0% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — | 14.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 53.3% | — | — | 31.1% | — | — | 15.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.48); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +71%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +57%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +44%
- Palmeiras win + Palmeiras clean sheet — 37% (fair 2.70); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +33%
Vitoria HOME
v Bahia AWAY
19:00 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Vitoria 1.18 – 1.17 Bahia
Vitoria 35%
· draw 28%
· Bahia 37%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 11% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Vitoria | Draw | Bahia |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.7% | — | — | 44.9% | — | — | 27.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.7% | — | — | 39.0% | — | — | 30.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Bahia win + Bahia clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.83); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +92%
- Vitoria win + Vitoria clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.74); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +89%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.88); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +72%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.24); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +48%
Chapecoense-sc HOME
v Sao Paulo AWAY
21:30 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Chapecoense-sc 1.17 – 1.20 Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc 27%
· draw 26%
· Sao Paulo 47%
Chapecoense-sc or draw
53%
Chapecoense-sc clean sheet
30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.2% | — | — | 44.7% | — | — | 28.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.0% | — | — | 38.8% | — | — | 31.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Chapecoense-sc win + Chapecoense-sc clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.93); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +94%
- Sao Paulo win + Sao Paulo clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.69); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +88%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.85); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +71%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.26); naive multiplication would say 30%, off by +49%
Santos HOME
v Mirassol AWAY
21:30 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Santos 1.12 – 1.42 Mirassol
Santos 30%
· draw 27%
· Mirassol 43%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Santos | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 24.3% | — | — | 42.8% | — | — | 33.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 26.5% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — | 36.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Santos win + Santos clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.31); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +124%
- Mirassol win + Mirassol clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +71%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +60%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.48); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Coritiba HOME
v Corinthians AWAY
22:30 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Coritiba 1.18 – 1.35 Corinthians
Coritiba 27%
· draw 26%
· Corinthians 47%
Corinthians clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 9%
Half-time markets
| Coritiba | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.9% | — | — | 43.0% | — | — | 31.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.4% | — | — | 37.2% | — | — | 34.4% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Coritiba win + Coritiba clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.74); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
- Corinthians win + Corinthians clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.44); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +80%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Botafogo HOME
v Atletico Paranaense AWAY
23:00 ·
BRA1 · expected goals
Botafogo 1.52 – 0.82 Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo 59%
· draw 23%
· Atletico Paranaense 17%
draw or Atletico Para…
41%
Atletico Para… clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 11% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Botafogo | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.2% | — | — | 44.1% | — | — | 17.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.8% | — | — | 37.9% | — | — | 19.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Atletico Para… win + Atletico Para… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.39); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +172%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.14); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +73%
- Botafogo win + Botafogo clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +45%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.46); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +43%