Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
F1 Ligue 1 (France) · 8 fixtures across 3 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Marseille HOME
v Strasbourg AWAY
18:45 ·
F1 · expected goals
Marseille 1.90 – 1.28 Strasbourg
Marseille 50%
· draw 23%
· Strasbourg 27%
Strasbourg clean sheet
15%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Marseille | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 39.9% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — | 23.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.8% | — | — | 31.5% | — | — | 24.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Strasbourg win + Strasbourg clean sheet — 10% (fair 9.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +177%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.57); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +90%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.70); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
- Marseille win + Marseille clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.27); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +62%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Lens HOME
v Auxerre AWAY
15:15 ·
F1 · expected goals
Lens 1.75 – 0.85 Auxerre
Lens 66%
· draw 20%
· Auxerre 14%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.2% | — | — | 41.0% | — | — | 16.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 47.1% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — | 17.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 36% (fair 2.77); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +58%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.19); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +54%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.46); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +49%
- Lens win + Lens clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.86); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +40%
Estac Troyes HOME
v Paris FC AWAY
18:45 ·
F1 · expected goals
Estac Troyes 1.27 – 1.53 Paris FC
Estac Troyes 24%
· draw 25%
· Paris FC 51%
Estac Troyes clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Estac Troyes | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.2% | — | — | 40.4% | — | — | 33.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 28.5% | — | — | 34.7% | — | — | 36.8% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Estac Troyes win + Estac Troyes clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.58); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +125%
- Paris FC win + Paris FC clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.63); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +79%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.88); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.36); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Nice HOME
v Lorient AWAY
18:45 ·
F1 · expected goals
Nice 1.57 – 1.21 Lorient
Nice 41%
· draw 27%
· Lorient 32%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Nice | Draw | Lorient |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.7% | — | — | 40.5% | — | — | 24.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 38.3% | — | — | 34.8% | — | — | 26.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lorient win + Lorient clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +135%
- Nice win + Nice clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.32); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +72%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.84); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +69%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.33); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Toulouse HOME
v Lyon AWAY
18:45 ·
F1 · expected goals
Toulouse 1.34 – 1.48 Lyon
Toulouse 30%
· draw 27%
· Lyon 43%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Toulouse | Draw | Lyon |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.9% | — | — | 40.3% | — | — | 31.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 30.4% | — | — | 34.7% | — | — | 34.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Toulouse win + Toulouse clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.09); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +113%
- Lyon win + Lyon clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.04); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +88%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.92); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +73%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.39); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +54%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Angers HOME
v Lille AWAY
13:00 ·
F1 · expected goals
Angers 0.79 – 1.41 Lille
Angers 18%
· draw 25%
· Lille 57%
Likeliest scores: 0–1 15% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 12% · 0–2 11%
Half-time markets
| Angers | Draw | Lille |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 17.7% | — | — | 46.0% | — | — | 36.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 19.4% | — | — | 39.8% | — | — | 40.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Angers win + Angers clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.72); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +157%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.47); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +85%
- Lille win + Lille clean sheet — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +46%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 24% (fair 4.12); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +38%
Le Havre HOME
v Monaco AWAY
15:15 ·
F1 · expected goals
Le Havre 1.19 – 1.69 Monaco
Le Havre 24%
· draw 27%
· Monaco 49%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 10% · 0–1 9% · 0–2 8%
Half-time markets
| Le Havre | Draw | Monaco |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 23.5% | — | — | 39.4% | — | — | 37.1% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 25.3% | — | — | 33.8% | — | — | 41.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Le Havre win + Le Havre clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.00); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +154%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.00); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +73%
- Monaco win + Monaco clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.11); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +65%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.68); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +58%
Paris Saint Germain HOME
v Rennes AWAY
18:45 ·
F1 · expected goals
Paris Saint Germain 2.72 – 0.98 Rennes
Paris Saint Germain 72%
· draw 16%
· Rennes 12%
Paris Saint G… or draw
88%
Paris Saint G… clean sheet
37%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 3–0 8% · 3–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Rennes |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 56.0% | — | — | 30.4% | — | — | 13.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 61.4% | — | — | 24.9% | — | — | 13.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.60); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- Draw + Under 4.5 — 14% (fair 7.19); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +31%
- draw or Rennes + Under 3.5 — 17% (fair 6.04); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +27%
- Paris Saint G… win + Paris Saint G… clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.88); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +26%