Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
TUR1 Süper Lig (Turkey) · 9 fixtures across 4 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Erzurumspor FK HOME
v Galatasaray AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Erzurumspor FK 1.31 – 1.31 Galatasaray
Erzurumspor FK 37%
· draw 26%
· Galatasaray 38%
Erzurumspor FK or draw
62%
Erzurumspor FK clean sheet
27%
Galatasaray clean sheet
27%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Erzurumspor FK | Draw | Galatasaray |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.0% | — | — | 42.1% | — | — | 28.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.9% | — | — | 36.4% | — | — | 31.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Galatasaray win + Galatasaray clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.21); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +97%
- Erzurumspor FK win + Erzurumspor FK clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.17); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +96%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.61); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +62%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.45); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Çorum FK HOME
v Kasımpaşa AWAY
16:00 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Çorum FK 1.80 – 0.93 Kasımpaşa
Çorum FK 63%
· draw 21%
· Kasımpaşa 15%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 11% · 1–1 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%
Half-time markets
| Çorum FK | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 42.3% | — | — | 39.8% | — | — | 17.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 47.0% | — | — | 33.9% | — | — | 19.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.52); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +58%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.52); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +51%
- Çorum FK win + Çorum FK clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.07); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +44%
Rizespor HOME
v Samsunspor AWAY
16:00 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Rizespor 1.39 – 1.40 Samsunspor
Rizespor 39%
· draw 28%
· Samsunspor 33%
Samsunspor clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 8% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%
Half-time markets
| Rizespor | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 29.6% | — | — | 40.7% | — | — | 29.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 32.4% | — | — | 35.0% | — | — | 32.6% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Rizespor win + Rizespor clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.49); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +100%
- Samsunspor win + Samsunspor clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.44); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +99%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 35% (fair 2.86); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.28); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +53%
Fenerbahçe HOME
v Konyaspor AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Fenerbahçe 2.39 – 0.88 Konyaspor
Fenerbahçe 74%
· draw 15%
· Konyaspor 10%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet
42%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9% · 3–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Fenerbahçe | Draw | Konyaspor |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 52.7% | — | — | 33.6% | — | — | 13.7% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 58.2% | — | — | 27.8% | — | — | 14.0% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 12% (fair 8.13); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +91%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.53); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +66%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.22); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +33%
- Fenerbahçe win + Fenerbahçe clean sheet — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +28%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Trabzonspor HOME
v Başakşehir AWAY
16:00 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Trabzonspor 1.58 – 1.28 Başakşehir
Trabzonspor 44%
· draw 26%
· Başakşehir 30%
Trabzonspor clean sheet
28%
Başakşehir clean sheet
21%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9% · 1–2 7%
Half-time markets
| Trabzonspor | Draw | Başakşehir |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.3% | — | — | 39.8% | — | — | 25.9% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 37.7% | — | — | 34.2% | — | — | 28.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Başakşehir win + Başakşehir clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.93); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +131%
- Trabzonspor win + Trabzonspor clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.61); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +77%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 2.99); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.56); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +56%
Eyüpspor HOME
v Gaziantep FK AWAY
16:00 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Eyüpspor 1.66 – 1.02 Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor 47%
· draw 26%
· Gaziantep FK 27%
Gaziantep FK clean sheet
19%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9%
Half-time markets
| Eyüpspor | Draw | Gaziantep FK |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.5% | — | — | 40.9% | — | — | 20.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 42.7% | — | — | 35.1% | — | — | 22.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Gaziantep FK win + Gaziantep FK clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.43); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +170%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.64); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +59%
- Eyüpspor win + Eyüpspor clean sheet — 29% (fair 3.49); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +54%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.49); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +54%
Alanyaspor HOME
v Beşiktaş AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Alanyaspor 1.27 – 1.41 Beşiktaş
Alanyaspor 31%
· draw 26%
· Beşiktaş 43%
Alanyaspor clean sheet
24%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 9% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
| Alanyaspor | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 27.1% | — | — | 41.5% | — | — | 31.3% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 29.7% | — | — | 35.8% | — | — | 34.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Alanyaspor win + Alanyaspor clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.86); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
- Beşiktaş win + Beşiktaş clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.78); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +85%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.69); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +65%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.37); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +53%
Göztepe HOME
v Gençlerbirliği S.K. AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Göztepe 1.40 – 0.91 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Göztepe 51%
· draw 29%
· Gençlerbirliği S.K. 21%
draw or Gençlerbirliğ…
49%
Gençlerbirliğ… clean sheet
25%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 13% · 1–1 13% · 0–0 10% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Göztepe | Draw | Gençlerbirliği S.K. |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 34.7% | — | — | 44.9% | — | — | 20.4% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 38.8% | — | — | 38.9% | — | — | 22.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Gençlerbirliğ… win + Gençlerbirliğ… clean sheet — 14% (fair 6.92); naive multiplication would say 6%, off by +140%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.08); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +75%
- Göztepe win + Göztepe clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.36); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +56%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 46% (fair 2.16); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +43%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Kocaelispor HOME
v Amed AWAY
18:30 ·
TUR1 · expected goals
Kocaelispor 1.08 – 1.24 Amed
Kocaelispor 24%
· draw 29%
· Amed 47%
Kocaelispor clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 10% · 1–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Kocaelispor | Draw | Amed |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.0% | — | — | 45.2% | — | — | 29.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 27.6% | — | — | 39.2% | — | — | 33.2% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Kocaelispor win + Kocaelispor clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.37); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +105%
- Amed win + Amed clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.21); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.20); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +46%