Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SA1 First Division (South Africa) · 6 fixtures across 2 days
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Casric Stars HOME
v Cape Town City AWAY
13:00 ·
SA1 · expected goals
Casric Stars 1.18 – 0.90 Cape Town City
Casric Stars 46%
· draw 28%
· Cape Town City 27%
draw or Cape Town City
54%
Casric Stars clean sheet
41%
Cape Town City clean sheet
31%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 14% · 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 11%
Half-time markets
| Casric Stars | Draw | Cape Town City |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.2% | — | — | 48.1% | — | — | 21.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 33.9% | — | — | 41.9% | — | — | 24.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Cape Town City win + Cape Town City clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.59); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +110%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +95%
- Casric Stars win + Casric Stars clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.61); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +63%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.93); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +35%
Venda FC HOME
v Lerumo Lions AWAY
13:00 ·
SA1 · expected goals
Venda FC 1.11 – 0.97 Lerumo Lions
Venda FC 41%
· draw 31%
· Lerumo Lions 28%
Lerumo Lions clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12%
Half-time markets
| Venda FC | Draw | Lerumo Lions |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 28.1% | — | — | 48.1% | — | — | 23.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 31.5% | — | — | 42.0% | — | — | 26.5% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Lerumo Lions win + Lerumo Lions clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.00); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +97%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.55); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +94%
- Venda FC win + Venda FC clean sheet — 25% (fair 4.00); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +73%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 52% (fair 1.94); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +36%
Best value on this date
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Midlands Wanderers HOME
v Magesi AWAY
13:00 ·
SA1 · expected goals
Midlands Wanderers 1.09 – 1.23 Magesi
Midlands Wanderers 32%
· draw 27%
· Magesi 41%
Midlands Wand… or draw
59%
Midlands Wand… clean sheet
29%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 10% · 1–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Midlands Wanderers | Draw | Magesi |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 25.2% | — | — | 45.2% | — | — | 29.6% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 27.8% | — | — | 39.3% | — | — | 32.9% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Midlands Wand… win + Midlands Wand… clean sheet — 19% (fair 5.30); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +103%
- Magesi win + Magesi clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.26); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +78%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.96); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +74%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 45% (fair 2.20); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +46%
Leicesterfield HOME
v Orbit College AWAY
13:00 ·
SA1 · expected goals
Leicesterfield 1.05 – 1.05 Orbit College
Leicesterfield 36%
· draw 31%
· Orbit College 33%
Leicesterfield or draw
67%
Leicesterfield clean sheet
35%
Orbit College clean sheet
35%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 13% · 0–1 12% · 1–0 12%
Half-time markets
| Leicesterfield | Draw | Orbit College |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 26.0% | — | — | 48.0% | — | — | 26.0% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 29.0% | — | — | 41.9% | — | — | 29.1% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.50); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +93%
- Leicesterfield win + Leicesterfield clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.48); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- Orbit College win + Orbit College clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.47); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +84%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 51% (fair 1.95); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +37%
The Bees HOME
v Highbury AWAY
13:00 ·
SA1 · expected goals
The Bees 1.22 – 0.97 Highbury
The Bees 42%
· draw 29%
· Highbury 30%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 13% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 10%
Half-time markets
| The Bees | Draw | Highbury |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 30.5% | — | — | 46.7% | — | — | 22.8% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 34.1% | — | — | 40.6% | — | — | 25.3% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Highbury win + Highbury clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.59); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +111%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.29); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +85%
- The Bees win + The Bees clean sheet — 26% (fair 3.79); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +67%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 49% (fair 2.04); naive multiplication would say 35%, off by +40%
Hungry Lions HOME
v Gomora United FC AWAY
13:00 ·
SA1 · expected goals
Hungry Lions 1.52 – 0.80 Gomora United FC
Hungry Lions 57%
· draw 26%
· Gomora United FC 17%
draw or Gomora United…
43%
Hungry Lions clean sheet
45%
Gomora United… clean sheet
22%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 15% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 11% · 0–0 10%
Half-time markets
| Hungry Lions | Draw | Gomora United FC |
|---|
| Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|
| 1st half | 38.6% | — | — | 44.2% | — | — | 17.2% | — | — |
| 2nd half | 43.3% | — | — | 38.0% | — | — | 18.7% | — | — |
Correlated combinations
- Gomora United… win + Gomora United… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.61); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +176%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 31% (fair 3.21); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +75%
- Hungry Lions win + Hungry Lions clean sheet — 35% (fair 2.88); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +43%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.44); naive multiplication would say 16%, off by +43%