UCL predictions

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

UCL UEFA Champions League (Europe) · 7 fixtures across 2 days

Tuesday 25 August (3 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
Bodo/GlimtvNEC Nijmegen	Bodo/Glimt H	56.8%	1.76	—	—	—
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer Sheva	Sabah FA H thin data	38.7%	2.58	—	—	—
Lask LinzvCeltic	Celtic A	38.6%	2.59	—	—	—
Lask LinzvCeltic	Lask Linz H	37.6%	2.66	—	—	—
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer Sheva	Hapoel Beer Sheva A thin data	33.4%	2.99	—	—	—
Sabah FAvHapoel Beer Sheva	Draw thin data	27.9%	3.58	—	—	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Sabah FA HOME v Hapoel Beer Sheva AWAY

16:45 · UCL · expected goals Sabah FA 1.34 – 1.14 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Thin data: Sabah FA 14 matches, Hapoel Beer Sheva 48 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Sabah FA 39% · draw 28% · Hapoel Beer Sheva 33%

Sabah FA win

39%

Draw

28%

Hapoel Beer S… win

33%

Sabah FA or draw

67%

either team

72%

draw or Hapoel Beer S…

61%

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

BTTS Yes

50%

BTTS No

50%

Sabah FA clean sheet

32%

Hapoel Beer S… clean sheet

26%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 11% · 0–1 9% · 0–0 9%

Half-time markets

	Sabah FA			Draw			Hapoel Beer Sheva
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	31.1%	—	—	43.6%	—	—	25.3%	—	—
2nd half	34.5%	—	—	37.7%	—	—	27.8%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Hapoel Beer S… win + Hapoel Beer S… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.73); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +112%
Sabah FA win + Sabah FA clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.31); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.68); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +64%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 42% (fair 2.39); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

Lask Linz HOME v Celtic AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Lask Linz 1.39 – 1.73 Celtic

Lask Linz 38% · draw 24% · Celtic 39%

Lask Linz win

38%

Draw

24%

Celtic win

39%

Lask Linz or draw

61%

either team

76%

draw or Celtic

62%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

BTTS Yes

58%

BTTS No

42%

Lask Linz clean sheet

18%

Celtic clean sheet

25%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 7% · 0–1 7%

Half-time markets

	Lask Linz			Draw			Celtic
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	26.5%	—	—	37.7%	—	—	35.8%	—	—
2nd half	28.6%	—	—	32.3%	—	—	39.1%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Lask Linz win + Lask Linz clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.74); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +139%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 29% (fair 3.49); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +91%
Celtic win + Celtic clean sheet — 20% (fair 4.96); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +79%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%

Bodo/Glimt HOME v NEC Nijmegen AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Bodo/Glimt 2.53 – 1.29 NEC Nijmegen

Bodo/Glimt 57% · draw 22% · NEC Nijmegen 21%

Bodo/Glimt win

57%

Draw

22%

NEC Nijmegen win

21%

Bodo/Glimt or draw

79%

either team

78%

draw or NEC Nijmegen

43%

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

53%

Under 3.5

47%

BTTS Yes

61%

BTTS No

39%

Bodo/Glimt clean sheet

28%

NEC Nijmegen clean sheet

Total Odd

50%

Total Even

50%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 3–1 8% · 1–1 7% · 2–0 7%

Half-time markets

	Bodo/Glimt			Draw			NEC Nijmegen
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	49.4%	—	—	31.6%	—	—	19.0%	—	—
2nd half	53.9%	—	—	26.5%	—	—	19.6%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.20); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +118%
Bodo/Glimt win + Bodo/Glimt clean sheet — 25% (fair 3.98); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +42%
Draw + Under 4.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +29%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 59% (fair 1.68); naive multiplication would say 49%, off by +21%

Wednesday 26 August (4 matches) full day →

Best value on this date

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
AEK Athens FCvLevski Sofia	AEK Athens FC H thin data	69.0%	1.45	—	—	—
VikingvDinamo Zagreb	Viking H	63.9%	1.56	—	—	—
CeljevSlovan Bratislava	Celje H	54.1%	1.85	—	—	—
LyonvFenerbahçe	Fenerbahçe A	41.6%	2.40	—	—	—
LyonvFenerbahçe	Lyon H	35.0%	2.85	—	—	—
CeljevSlovan Bratislava	Draw	24.2%	4.13	—	—	—

Lyon HOME v Fenerbahçe AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Lyon 1.66 – 1.58 Fenerbahçe

Lyon 35% · draw 23% · Fenerbahçe 42%

Lyon win

35%

Draw

23%

Fenerbahçe win

42%

Lyon or draw

58%

either team

77%

draw or Fenerbahçe

65%

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

BTTS Yes

60%

BTTS No

40%

Lyon clean sheet

21%

Fenerbahçe clean sheet

19%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 2–2 7%

Half-time markets

	Lyon			Draw			Fenerbahçe
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	32.6%	—	—	37.0%	—	—	30.4%	—	—
2nd half	35.4%	—	—	31.8%	—	—	32.9%	—	—

Correlated combinations

Fenerbahçe win + Fenerbahçe clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.79); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +114%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.77); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +102%
Lyon win + Lyon clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.11); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +100%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.74); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +67%

AEK Athens FC HOME v Levski Sofia AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals AEK Athens FC 1.63 – 0.64 Levski Sofia

Thin data: AEK Athens FC 288 matches, Levski Sofia 22 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

AEK Athens FC 69% · draw 21% · Levski Sofia 10%

AEK Athens FC win

69%

Draw

21%

Levski Sofia win

10%

AEK Athens FC or draw

90%

either team

79%

draw or Levski Sofia

31%

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

BTTS Yes

42%

BTTS No

58%

AEK Athens FC clean sheet

53%

Levski Sofia clean sheet

20%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 1–0 17% · 2–0 14% · 1–1 11% · 0–0 11%

Half-time markets

	AEK Athens FC			Draw			Levski Sofia
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.6%	—	—	44.0%	—	—	13.3%	—	—
2nd half	48.1%	—	—	37.6%	—	—	14.3%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.70); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +80%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +44%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.02); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +32%
AEK Athens FC win + AEK Athens FC clean sheet — 42% (fair 2.37); naive multiplication would say 32%, off by +30%

Viking HOME v Dinamo Zagreb AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Viking 2.42 – 1.42 Dinamo Zagreb

Viking 64% · draw 18% · Dinamo Zagreb 18%

Viking win

64%

Draw

18%

Dinamo Zagreb win

18%

Viking or draw

82%

either team

82%

draw or Dinamo Zagreb

36%

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

53%

Under 3.5

47%

BTTS Yes

63%

BTTS No

37%

Viking clean sheet

24%

Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 1–1 8% · 3–1 7% · 2–2 6%

Half-time markets

	Viking			Draw			Dinamo Zagreb
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	46.3%	—	—	32.1%	—	—	21.6%	—	—
2nd half	50.4%	—	—	27.2%	—	—	22.5%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 19% (fair 5.34); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +131%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 10% (fair 9.94); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +97%
Viking win + Viking clean sheet — 22% (fair 4.57); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +52%
Draw + Under 4.5 — 16% (fair 6.10); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +28%

Celje HOME v Slovan Bratislava AWAY

19:00 · UCL · expected goals Celje 2.14 – 1.34 Slovan Bratislava

Celje 54% · draw 24% · Slovan Bratislava 22%

Celje win

54%

Draw

24%

Slovan Bratis… win

22%

Celje or draw

78%

either team

76%

draw or Slovan Bratis…

46%

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

BTTS Yes

60%

BTTS No

40%

Celje clean sheet

26%

Slovan Bratis… clean sheet

12%

Total Odd

49%

Total Even

51%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 9% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 7% · 3–1 7%

Half-time markets

	Celje			Draw			Slovan Bratislava
	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge	Model	Book	Edge
1st half	42.9%	—	—	34.6%	—	—	22.5%	—	—
2nd half	46.9%	—	—	29.4%	—	—	23.7%	—	—

Correlated combinations

BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 23% (fair 4.28); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +108%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 12% (fair 8.00); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +81%
Celje win + Celje clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.39); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +57%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 56% (fair 1.78); naive multiplication would say 44%, off by +27%