Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a
statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are
not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not
reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so
expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if
it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.
SC0 4 fixtures across 1 day
Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, every day in this window
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 6.74 | +187.4% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 6.95 | +160.0% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 7.27 | +139.1% | 3.00% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 7.66 | +120.1% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 3.95 | +114.6% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 3.56 | +109.7% | — |
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Totals | Over2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 3.17 | +102.1% | — |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Totals | Over2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 3.93 | +96.1% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | BTTS | Yes— | 54.2% | 1.85 | 3.24 | +75.7% | 3.00% |
| KilmarnockvCeltic | BTTS | Yes— | 56.5% | 1.77 | 3.09 | +74.6% | 3.00% |
| RangersvHibernian | BTTS | Yes— | 55.6% | 1.80 | 3.06 | +70.0% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over1.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 2.07 | +60.3% | — |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | BTTS | Yes— | 48.6% | 2.06 | 3.29 | +59.7% | 3.00% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Totals | Over1.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 2.07 | +53.7% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over1.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.89 | +52.5% | — |
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Totals | Over1.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.75 | +46.8% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Best value on this date
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| RangersvHibernian | Hibernian A | 22.3% | 4.48 | 5.47 | +22.1% | 1.24% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Heart Of Midlothian H | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.64 | +6.4% | 2.51% |
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Kilmarnock H | 14.9% | 6.71 | 7.06 | +5.3% | — |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Draw | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.72 | +1.1% | — |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Falkirk A | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4.08 | -3.7% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Draw | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4.30 | -5.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Goal markets on this date
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|
| KilmarnockvCeltic | Totals | Over3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 6.74 | +187.4% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over3.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 6.95 | +160.0% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over3.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 7.27 | +139.1% | 3.00% |
| Heart Of MidlothianvDundee Utd | Totals | Over3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 7.66 | +120.1% | 3.00% |
| MotherwellvFalkirk | Totals | Over2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 3.95 | +114.6% | — |
| RangersvHibernian | Totals | Over2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 3.56 | +109.7% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
Kilmarnock HOME
v Celtic AWAY
12:30 · SC0 · expected goals
Kilmarnock 1.07 – 2.24 Celtic
Kilmarnock 15%
· draw 18%
· Celtic 67%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Kilmarnock | 14.9% | 12.3% | 7.06 | +2.6pp |
| Draw | 18.0% | 17.7% | 5.07 | +0.3pp |
| Celtic | 67.1% | 70.0% | 1.37 | -2.9pp |
| Over 1.5 | 83.8% | 53.7% | 1.75 | +30.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 16.2% | 46.3% | 2.04 | -30.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 31.4% | 3.17 | +32.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | 68.6% | 1.45 | -32.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 15.4% | 6.74 | +27.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 84.6% | 1.23 | -27.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 56.5% | 34.6% | 3.09 | +22.0pp |
| BTTS No | 43.5% | 65.4% | 1.63 | -22.0pp |
Kilmarnock clean sheet
11%
Likeliest scores: 1–2 10% · 0–2 9% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.64); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +84%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.77); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +82%
- Celtic win + Celtic clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +39%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.00); naive multiplication would say 38%, off by +31%
Heart Of Midlothian HOME
v Dundee Utd AWAY
14:00 · SC0 · expected goals
Heart Of Midlothian 1.83 – 0.83 Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian 65%
· draw 22%
· Dundee Utd 13%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 64.9% | 58.4% | 1.64 | +6.6pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.9% | 4.01 | -0.8pp |
| Dundee Utd | 13.0% | 18.7% | 4.82 | -5.8pp |
| Over 1.5 | 74.1% | 45.5% | 2.07 | +28.7pp |
| Under 1.5 | 25.9% | 54.5% | 1.73 | -28.7pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 25.5% | 3.93 | +24.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 74.5% | 1.35 | -24.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 13.5% | 7.66 | +15.2pp |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 86.5% | 1.20 | -15.2pp |
| BTTS Yes | 48.6% | 32.1% | 3.29 | +16.5pp |
| BTTS No | 51.4% | 67.9% | 1.55 | -16.5pp |
Heart Of Midl… or draw
87%
Heart Of Midl… clean sheet
43%
Dundee Utd clean sheet
16%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 2–0 12% · 1–1 11% · 2–1 10%
Correlated combinations
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.42); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +58%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +54%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.56); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +50%
- Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 36% (fair 2.78); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +37%
Motherwell HOME
v Falkirk AWAY
14:00 · SC0 · expected goals
Motherwell 1.75 – 1.11 Falkirk
Motherwell 49%
· draw 27%
· Falkirk 24%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Motherwell | 49.2% | 52.7% | 1.81 | -3.5pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 24.8% | 3.72 | +2.4pp |
| Falkirk | 23.6% | 22.5% | 4.08 | +1.1pp |
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 45.5% | 2.07 | +32.0pp |
| Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 54.5% | 1.73 | -32.0pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +29.0pp |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -29.0pp |
| Over 3.5 | 32.9% | 14.1% | 7.27 | +18.8pp |
| Under 3.5 | 67.1% | 85.9% | 1.20 | -18.8pp |
| BTTS Yes | 54.2% | 33.1% | 3.24 | +21.1pp |
| BTTS No | 45.8% | 66.9% | 1.60 | -21.1pp |
Motherwell clean sheet
33%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 10% · 2–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- Falkirk win + Falkirk clean sheet — 11% (fair 8.98); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +173%
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +69%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.63); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +60%
- Motherwell win + Motherwell clean sheet — 27% (fair 3.73); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +56%
Rangers HOME
v Hibernian AWAY
15:00 · SC0 · expected goals
Rangers 1.97 – 1.10 Hibernian
Rangers 56%
· draw 22%
· Hibernian 22%
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rangers | 55.7% | 62.5% | 1.53 | -6.8pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 21.2% | 4.30 | +0.8pp |
| Hibernian | 22.3% | 16.3% | 5.47 | +6.0pp |
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 49.8% | 1.89 | +30.8pp |
| Under 1.5 | 19.4% | 50.2% | 1.87 | -30.8pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 27.6% | 3.56 | +31.3pp |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 72.4% | 1.36 | -31.3pp |
| Over 3.5 | 37.4% | 15.0% | 6.95 | +22.4pp |
| Under 3.5 | 62.6% | 85.0% | 1.23 | -22.4pp |
| BTTS Yes | 55.6% | 34.9% | 3.06 | +20.7pp |
| BTTS No | 44.4% | 65.1% | 1.64 | -20.7pp |
Likeliest scores: 1–1 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 9%
Correlated combinations
- BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 30% (fair 3.31); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +76%
- Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.43); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +69%
- Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.55); naive multiplication would say 19%, off by +49%
- BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 47% (fair 2.11); naive multiplication would say 34%, off by +38%