Match model — probabilities and prices

SC0 · every scheduled fixture in this window · generated 2026-08-20 06:23 UTC
Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

SC0 Premiership (Scotland) · 6 fixtures across 1 day

Saturday 22 August (6 matches) full day →
Best value on this date
MatchSelectionModelFairBookEVStake
RangersvST MirrenRangers H74.7%1.34———
ST JohnstonevCelticCeltic A71.2%1.40———
MotherwellvAberdeenMotherwell H59.0%1.69———
FalkirkvHeart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian A57.6%1.74———
HibernianvKilmarnockHibernian H55.7%1.79———
Dundee UtdvDundeeDundee Utd H49.2%2.03———

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

ST Johnstone HOME v Celtic AWAY

14:00 · SC0 · expected goals ST Johnstone 0.83 – 2.12 Celtic
ST Johnstone 11% · draw 17% · Celtic 71%
ST Johnstone win
11%
Draw
17%
Celtic win
71%
ST Johnstone or draw
29%
either team
83%
draw or Celtic
89%
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
BTTS Yes
50%
BTTS No
50%
ST Johnstone clean sheet
12%
Celtic clean sheet
44%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 0–2 12% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 10% · 1–1 9%
Half-time markets
ST JohnstoneDrawCeltic
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half14.3%——36.6%——49.1%——
2nd half14.9%——30.6%——54.5%——
Correlated combinations
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 15% (fair 6.66); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +73%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.95); naive multiplication would say 22%, off by +56%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 28%, off by +43%
  • Celtic win + Celtic clean sheet — 38% (fair 2.63); naive multiplication would say 29%, off by +31%

Rangers HOME v ST Mirren AWAY

14:00 · SC0 · expected goals Rangers 2.19 – 0.76 ST Mirren
Rangers 75% · draw 15% · ST Mirren 10%
Rangers win
75%
Draw
15%
ST Mirren win
10%
Rangers or draw
90%
either team
85%
draw or ST Mirren
25%
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
BTTS Yes
48%
BTTS No
52%
Rangers clean sheet
47%
ST Mirren clean sheet
11%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 3–0 9%
Half-time markets
RangersDrawST Mirren
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half51.1%——36.1%——12.8%——
2nd half56.8%——29.9%——13.3%——
Correlated combinations
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 14% (fair 6.90); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +77%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.91); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +51%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.59); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +43%
  • Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 41% (fair 2.43); naive multiplication would say 33%, off by +26%

Motherwell HOME v Aberdeen AWAY

14:00 · SC0 · expected goals Motherwell 1.66 – 0.92 Aberdeen
Motherwell 59% · draw 23% · Aberdeen 18%
Motherwell win
59%
Draw
23%
Aberdeen win
18%
Motherwell or draw
82%
either team
77%
draw or Aberdeen
41%
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
BTTS Yes
49%
BTTS No
51%
Motherwell clean sheet
40%
Aberdeen clean sheet
19%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–0 12% · 1–1 12% · 2–0 10% · 2–1 10%
Half-time markets
MotherwellDrawAberdeen
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half39.7%——41.6%——18.7%——
2nd half44.3%——35.6%——20.1%——
Correlated combinations
  • Aberdeen win + Aberdeen clean sheet — 11% (fair 9.01); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +184%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.70); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +59%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +52%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.02); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +51%

Hibernian HOME v Kilmarnock AWAY

14:00 · SC0 · expected goals Hibernian 1.91 – 1.01 Kilmarnock
Hibernian 56% · draw 24% · Kilmarnock 21%
Hibernian win
56%
Draw
24%
Kilmarnock win
21%
Hibernian or draw
79%
either team
76%
draw or Kilmarnock
44%
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
BTTS Yes
53%
BTTS No
47%
Hibernian clean sheet
36%
Kilmarnock clean sheet
15%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 10% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%
Half-time markets
HibernianDrawKilmarnock
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half43.2%——38.2%——18.6%——
2nd half47.9%——32.4%——19.7%——
Correlated combinations
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 33% (fair 3.00); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +66%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.08); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%
  • Hibernian win + Hibernian clean sheet — 31% (fair 3.26); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +45%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 44% (fair 2.28); naive multiplication would say 31%, off by +44%

Falkirk HOME v Heart Of Midlothian AWAY

14:00 · SC0 · expected goals Falkirk 1.19 – 1.47 Heart Of Midlothian
Falkirk 22% · draw 20% · Heart Of Midlothian 58%
Falkirk win
22%
Draw
20%
Heart Of Midl… win
58%
Falkirk or draw
42%
either team
80%
draw or Heart Of Midl…
78%
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
BTTS Yes
53%
BTTS No
47%
Falkirk clean sheet
23%
Heart Of Midl… clean sheet
30%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 1–0 8%
Half-time markets
FalkirkDrawHeart Of Midlothian
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half25.3%——41.6%——33.1%——
2nd half27.5%——35.9%——36.6%——
Correlated combinations
  • Falkirk win + Falkirk clean sheet — 16% (fair 6.41); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +124%
  • Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.36); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +75%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
  • BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

Dundee Utd HOME v Dundee AWAY

16:45 · SC0 · expected goals Dundee Utd 1.65 – 1.19 Dundee
Dundee Utd 49% · draw 27% · Dundee 24%
Dundee Utd win
49%
Draw
27%
Dundee win
24%
Dundee Utd or draw
76%
either team
73%
draw or Dundee
51%
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
BTTS Yes
54%
BTTS No
46%
Dundee Utd clean sheet
30%
Dundee clean sheet
19%
Total Odd
49%
Total Even
51%
Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9% · 2–0 8%
Half-time markets
Dundee UtdDrawDundee
ModelBookEdgeModelBookEdgeModelBookEdge
1st half36.5%——39.8%——23.7%——
2nd half40.3%——34.1%——25.6%——
Correlated combinations
  • Dundee win + Dundee clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.71); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +149%
  • BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 34% (fair 2.93); naive multiplication would say 20%, off by +71%
  • Dundee Utd win + Dundee Utd clean sheet — 24% (fair 4.13); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +67%
  • Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.55); naive multiplication would say 12%, off by +57%