| League | Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | Exeter City A thin data | 22.1% | 4.53 | 5.82 | +28.4% | — |
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | Silkeborg H | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.62 | +5.4% | — |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | Nacional A | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4.20 | +1.8% | — |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | Draw | 29.8% | 3.36 | 3.32 | -1.1% | — |
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | Draw | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.64 | -9.3% | — |
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | Draw thin data | 20.1% | 4.98 | 4.47 | -10.1% | — |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | Santa Clara H | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.88 | -13.5% | — |
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | Plymouth H thin data | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.46 | -15.7% | — |
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | Odense A | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.39 | -16.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
Kept separate from the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that, books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has further to travel.
| League | Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | Totals | Over3.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 5.57 | +128.5% | 3.00% |
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.56 | +100.9% | — |
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.57 | +85.5% | — |
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | Totals | Over2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | 2.86 | +78.4% | — |
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 53.5% | 1.87 | 3.08 | +64.8% | — |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 4.68 | +58.4% | 3.00% |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over1.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 2.52 | +52.3% | 3.00% |
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | Totals | Over1.5 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.84 | +52.1% | — |
| DEN1 | SilkeborgvOdense | BTTS | Yes— | 60.2% | 1.66 | 2.41 | +45.1% | 3.00% |
| EFL | PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.85 | +40.4% | — |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 15.8% | 6.32 | 8.30 | +31.3% | — |
| P1 | Santa ClaravNacional | BTTS | Yes— | 43.1% | 2.32 | 3.02 | +30.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
The vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.
| Match | Combination | Model | Fair | vs naive | Book | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlymouthvExeter City | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.9% | 7.72 | +149% | — | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Away + Away clean sheet | 12.6% | 7.95 | +136% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Away + Away clean sheet | 17.1% | 5.86 | +114% | — | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | +100% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 26.5% | 3.77 | +99% | — | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Home + Home clean sheet | 18.8% | 5.32 | +82% | — | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Draw + Under 2.5 | 15.0% | 6.68 | +69% | — | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | +66% | — | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Home + Home clean sheet | 25.2% | 3.96 | +64% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Home + Home clean sheet | 29.0% | 3.45 | +58% | — | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Draw + Under 2.5 | 19.0% | 5.26 | +55% | — | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | +50% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | BTTS No + Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | +33% | — | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | +33% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Home + Over 2.5 | 18.9% | 5.29 | +33% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Draw + Under 2.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | +32% | — | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Away + Over 2.5 | 10.6% | 9.44 | +23% | — | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Home + Over 2.5 | 30.0% | 3.34 | +20% | — | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Home + BTTS No | 18.8% | 5.32 | +18% | — | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Home + BTTS No | 25.2% | 3.96 | +17% | — | — |
Legs from different matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything. Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a good idea.
| Legs | N | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Margin cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth v Exeter City — over 2.5 goals Silkeborg v Odense — over 2.5 goals Santa Clara v Nacional — over 1.5 goals thin data | 3 | 19.5% | 5.12 | 25.79 | +403.9% | −14% |
| Silkeborg v Odense — over 2.5 goals Plymouth v Exeter City — both teams to score Santa Clara v Nacional — over 1.5 goals thin data | 3 | 20.1% | 4.97 | 22.25 | +347.8% | −14% |
| Plymouth v Exeter City — over 2.5 goals Silkeborg v Odense — over 1.5 goals thin data | 2 | 43.0% | 2.32 | 6.56 | +182.1% | −9% |
| Plymouth v Exeter City — both teams to score Silkeborg v Odense — over 1.5 goals thin data | 2 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 5.65 | +150.7% | −9% |
| Plymouth v Exeter City — over 2.5 goals Santa Clara v Nacional — over 1.5 goals Silkeborg v Odense — over 1.5 goals thin data | 3 | 26.0% | 3.85 | 16.54 | +329.6% | −14% |
| Silkeborg v Odense — over 2.5 goals Plymouth v Exeter City — both teams to score thin data | 2 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 8.82 | +194.0% | −9% |
| Plymouth v Exeter City — both teams to score Santa Clara v Nacional — over 1.5 goals Silkeborg v Odense — over 1.5 goals thin data | 3 | 26.8% | 3.74 | 14.26 | +281.8% | −14% |
| Plymouth v Exeter City — over 2.5 goals Silkeborg v Odense — over 2.5 goals thin data | 2 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 10.22 | +230.9% | −9% |
| Plymouth v Exeter City — over 2.5 goals Silkeborg v Odense — over 2.5 goals Santa Clara v Nacional — under 3.5 goals thin data | 3 | 27.2% | 3.67 | 11.68 | +218.2% | −14% |
| Silkeborg v Odense — over 2.5 goals Plymouth v Exeter City — both teams to score Santa Clara v Nacional — under 3.5 goals thin data | 3 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 10.08 | +182.8% | −14% |
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SilkeborgvOdense | Silkeborg H | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.62 | +5.4% | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Draw | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.64 | -9.3% | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Odense A | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.39 | -16.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SilkeborgvOdense | Totals | Over3.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 5.57 | +128.5% | 3.00% |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Totals | Over2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | 2.86 | +78.4% | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | Totals | Over1.5 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.84 | +52.1% | — |
| SilkeborgvOdense | BTTS | Yes— | 60.2% | 1.66 | 2.41 | +45.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silkeborg | 40.2% | 35.6% | 2.62 | +4.6pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.2% | 3.64 | -0.2pp |
| Odense | 34.9% | 39.2% | 2.39 | -4.4pp |
| Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 51.4% | 1.84 | +31.5pp |
| Under 1.5 | 17.1% | 48.6% | 1.94 | -31.5pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 35.9% | 2.86 | +26.4pp |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | 64.1% | 1.60 | -26.4pp |
| Over 3.5 | 41.0% | 18.9% | 5.57 | +22.1pp |
| Under 3.5 | 59.0% | 81.1% | 1.30 | -22.1pp |
| BTTS Yes | 60.2% | 45.4% | 2.41 | +14.8pp |
| BTTS No | 39.8% | 54.6% | 2.00 | -14.8pp |
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlymouthvExeter City | Exeter City A thin data | 22.1% | 4.53 | 5.82 | +28.4% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Draw thin data | 20.1% | 4.98 | 4.47 | -10.1% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Plymouth H thin data | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.46 | -15.7% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over3.5 thin data | 30.6% | 3.27 | 6.56 | +100.9% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over2.5 thin data | 51.9% | 1.93 | 3.57 | +85.5% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | BTTS | Yes— thin data | 53.5% | 1.87 | 3.08 | +64.8% | — |
| PlymouthvExeter City | Totals | Over1.5 thin data | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.85 | +40.4% | — |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 57.8% | 65.3% | 1.46 | -7.4pp |
| Draw | 20.1% | 19.9% | 4.47 | +0.2pp |
| Exeter City | 22.1% | 14.8% | 5.82 | +7.2pp |
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 50.6% | 1.85 | +25.2pp |
| Under 1.5 | 24.3% | 49.4% | 1.90 | -25.2pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 27.4% | 3.57 | +24.5pp |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 72.6% | 1.35 | -24.5pp |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 15.8% | 6.56 | +14.9pp |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 84.2% | 1.23 | -14.9pp |
| BTTS Yes | 53.5% | 34.4% | 3.08 | +19.1pp |
| BTTS No | 46.5% | 65.6% | 1.62 | -19.1pp |
| Match | Selection | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa ClaravNacional | Nacional A | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4.20 | +1.8% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Draw | 29.8% | 3.36 | 3.32 | -1.1% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Santa Clara H | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.88 | -13.5% | — |
Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.
| Match | Market | Pick | Model | Fair | Book | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 4.68 | +58.4% | 3.00% |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over1.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 2.52 | +52.3% | 3.00% |
| Santa ClaravNacional | Totals | Over3.5 | 15.8% | 6.32 | 8.30 | +31.3% | — |
| Santa ClaravNacional | BTTS | Yes— | 43.1% | 2.32 | 3.02 | +30.1% | 3.00% |
One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.
| Model | Market | Book odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 46.0% | 50.5% | 1.88 | -4.5pp |
| Draw | 29.8% | 27.8% | 3.32 | +1.9pp |
| Nacional | 24.2% | 21.6% | 4.20 | +2.6pp |
| Over 1.5 | 60.4% | 37.3% | 2.52 | +23.1pp |
| Under 1.5 | 39.6% | 62.7% | 1.50 | -23.1pp |
| Over 2.5 | 33.9% | 21.2% | 4.68 | +12.7pp |
| Under 2.5 | 66.1% | 78.8% | 1.26 | -12.7pp |
| Over 3.5 | 15.8% | 12.1% | 8.30 | +3.7pp |
| Under 3.5 | 84.2% | 87.9% | 1.14 | -3.7pp |
| BTTS Yes | 43.1% | 32.5% | 3.02 | +10.6pp |
| BTTS No | 56.9% | 67.5% | 1.45 | -10.6pp |