Predictions — 2026-08-13

Model output, not advice. These are probabilities from a statistical model, published for transparency about how it performs. They are not tips and not financial advice. In backtests this model does not reliably beat closing prices, which is the only benchmark that matters, so expect selections here to lose money over time. 18+. Gambling is addictive; if it stops being a modelling exercise, stop.

UEL 9

Best value today across all competitions, ranked by expected value rather than by how likely they are to win

League	Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
UEL	Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	Lincoln Red Imps FC A	23.1%	4.33	20.89	+382.7%	3.00%
UEL	KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	KI Klaksvik H thin data	40.7%	2.46	5.47	+122.9%	—
UEL	Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	Draw	25.9%	3.85	8.29	+115.0%	3.00%
UEL	Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica	Heart Of Midlothian H	22.6%	4.43	6.27	+41.4%	1.97%
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	PAOK A	48.9%	2.04	2.46	+20.5%	3.00%
UEL	RangersvJagiellonia	Rangers H thin data	73.2%	1.37	1.51	+10.8%	—
UEL	KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Draw thin data	25.2%	3.97	4.40	+10.8%	—
UEL	CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	CSKA Sofia H thin data	52.3%	1.91	2.04	+6.8%	—
UEL	Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica	Draw	23.2%	4.32	4.52	+4.8%	—
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Red Bull Salzburg A thin data	42.1%	2.38	2.43	+2.2%	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Draw thin data	28.9%	3.46	3.44	-0.7%	—
UEL	Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	FC Thun A thin data	39.4%	2.54	2.44	-3.7%	—
UEL	Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Draw thin data	26.3%	3.81	3.64	-4.3%	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Shamrock Rovers A thin data	29.6%	3.38	3.18	-5.8%	—
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Pafos H thin data	33.4%	2.99	2.75	-8.3%	—
UEL	CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Draw thin data	28.3%	3.53	3.22	-8.8%	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Egnatia Rrogozhinë H thin data	41.5%	2.41	2.07	-14.1%	—
UEL	Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Vikingur Reykjavik H thin data	34.3%	2.92	2.48	-14.9%	—
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Draw thin data	24.5%	4.08	3.25	-20.2%	—
UEL	Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica	Benfica A	54.3%	1.84	1.42	-23.0%	—
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	Anderlecht H	28.2%	3.55	2.71	-23.6%	—
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	Draw	22.9%	4.36	3.23	-26.0%	—
UEL	CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Maccabi Tel Aviv A thin data	19.4%	5.15	3.48	-32.3%	—
UEL	RangersvJagiellonia	Draw thin data	16.2%	6.19	4.07	-34.2%	—
UEL	RangersvJagiellonia	Jagiellonia A thin data	10.6%	9.43	5.58	-40.8%	—

Stake is blank unless a selection clears every gate: positive expected value, at least 5 percentage points of edge over the de-vigged line, and not more than 25 (a disagreement that large is usually the model missing something, not an opportunity). Most rows will be blank most days. Selections marked longshot are below 10% — their EV figure divides by a very small number and should not be trusted. thin data means one side has too few matches in the model's history for its rating to mean anything; the huge edge shown is the model's ignorance, not the market's mistake.

Best goal markets over/under and both teams to score, ranked by expected value

Kept separate from the match-winner table because they are a different bet: independent of who wins, driven by the total-goals distribution rather than the difference between the two sides. Worth a look for two reasons — a goal model is being asked the question it was actually built to answer, and a totals line is far less correlated with the rest of a slip than another favourite. Against that, books charge more margin here than on the match winner, so a given edge has further to travel.

How much this model actually knows about goals. Measured on out-of-fold predictions during training, not on the fixtures below:

Totals: 0.6077 log loss vs 0.6906 for always predicting the base rate — clearly better than the base rate out of sample.
BTTS: 0.6871 log loss vs 0.6903 for always predicting the base rate — barely better than the base rate out of sample. Predictions are shrunk toward the base rate (T=1.42) because the raw model was overconfident.

League	Match	Market	Pick	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
UEL	RangersvJagiellonia	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	41.8%	2.39	7.84	+227.6%	—
UEL	RangersvJagiellonia	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	63.0%	1.59	4.41	+177.8%	—
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	Totals	Over3.5	34.8%	2.87	7.62	+165.5%	3.00%
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	Totals	Over2.5	56.3%	1.78	4.58	+158.2%	—
UEL	KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	39.4%	2.54	6.38	+151.3%	—
UEL	CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	49.9%	2.00	5.01	+150.1%	—
UEL	CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	28.8%	3.48	8.59	+147.0%	—
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	49.5%	2.02	4.69	+131.8%	—
UEL	Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	38.6%	2.59	5.81	+124.2%	—
UEL	KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	BTTS	Yes— thin data	59.6%	1.68	3.61	+115.0%	—
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	BTTS	Yes— thin data	53.1%	1.88	3.98	+111.6%	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	25.7%	3.89	8.17	+109.7%	—
UEL	KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	60.8%	1.65	3.44	+109.0%	—
UEL	Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	Totals	Over3.5	30.4%	3.29	6.81	+107.0%	3.00%
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	BTTS	Yes—	56.9%	1.76	3.58	+103.5%	—
UEL	Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	46.4%	2.15	4.30	+99.8%	—
UEL	Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	BTTS	Yes—	50.8%	1.97	3.93	+99.7%	—
UEL	Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	60.1%	1.67	3.21	+92.9%	—
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	28.4%	3.53	6.60	+87.0%	—
UEL	CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Totals	Over1.5 thin data	74.2%	1.35	2.43	+80.6%	—
UEL	Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	Totals	Over2.5	51.7%	1.93	3.48	+80.0%	3.00%
UEL	AnderlechtvPAOK	Totals	Over1.5	78.9%	1.27	2.24	+77.0%	—
UEL	RangersvJagiellonia	Totals	Over1.5 thin data	83.3%	1.20	2.11	+75.6%	—
UEL	Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica	BTTS	Yes—	50.9%	1.97	3.41	+73.6%	3.00%
UEL	PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Totals	Over1.5 thin data	73.9%	1.35	2.32	+71.2%	—

One row per market per match: the side the model prefers. The two sides of a two-way line are near mirror images, so showing both would double the table without adding anything. Edges are measured against each pair de-vigged on its own, not against the match-winner margin — books load goals markets more heavily, and borrowing the 1X2 overround here would flatter every row.

Same-match combinations priced from the joint distribution, so correlation is handled correctly

The vs naive column is how far a bookmaker would be off if they priced the combination by multiplying the two legs together. A large positive number means the events happen together more often than independence implies — draws and low-scoring games, for instance — so a multiplied price is too generous.

Match	Combination	Model	Fair	vs naive	Book	EV
CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Away + Away clean sheet	11.6%	8.63	+171%	—	—
Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica	Home + Home clean sheet	12.5%	7.99	+159%	—	—
AnderlechtvPAOK	Home + Home clean sheet	15.0%	6.67	+120%	—	—
KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Away + Away clean sheet	14.3%	7.00	+120%	—	—
Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Home + Home clean sheet	14.6%	6.84	+117%	—	—
Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Away + Away clean sheet	16.9%	5.92	+114%	—	—
PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Away + Away clean sheet	17.5%	5.71	+107%	—	—
KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	BTTS No + Under 2.5	27.8%	3.60	+96%	—	—
Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	BTTS No + Under 2.5	28.4%	3.52	+93%	—	—
Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Away + Away clean sheet	17.7%	5.65	+92%	—	—
KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Home + Home clean sheet	17.6%	5.67	+91%	—	—
PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	Home + Home clean sheet	20.6%	4.87	+87%	—	—
AnderlechtvPAOK	Away + Away clean sheet	19.5%	5.12	+86%	—	—
RangersvJagiellonia	Draw + Under 2.5	13.4%	7.44	+82%	—	—
RangersvJagiellonia	BTTS No + Under 2.5	27.1%	3.69	+81%	—	—
AnderlechtvPAOK	BTTS No + Under 2.5	31.6%	3.17	+81%	—	—
Egnatia RrogozhinëvShamrock Rovers	Home + Home clean sheet	22.9%	4.36	+77%	—	—
KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Draw + Under 2.5	15.7%	6.38	+66%	—	—
Vikingur ReykjavikvFC Thun	Draw + Under 2.5	16.0%	6.26	+65%	—	—
PafosvRed Bull Salzburg	BTTS No + Under 2.5	37.7%	2.66	+63%	—	—

Accumulators shown with what they cost you

Legs from different matches are independent, so the probabilities multiply — and so does the bookmaker's margin. The final column is the share of fair value lost to compounding vig at 5% per leg, before your model is even wrong about anything. Accumulators are on this page because people want them, not because they are a good idea.

Legs	N	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Margin cost
Rangers v Jagiellonia — over 2.5 goals Anderlecht v PAOK — over 2.5 goals CSKA Sofia v Maccabi Tel Aviv — over 2.5 goals thin data	3	17.7%	5.64	101.18	+1693.8%	−14%
Rangers v Jagiellonia — over 2.5 goals Anderlecht v PAOK — over 2.5 goals Pafos v Red Bull Salzburg — over 2.5 goals thin data	3	17.6%	5.69	94.65	+1562.8%	−14%
CSKA Sofia v Maccabi Tel Aviv — over 2.5 goals Pafos v Red Bull Salzburg — over 2.5 goals KI Klaksvik v Lech Poznan — both teams to score thin data	3	14.7%	6.80	84.69	+1146.2%	−14%
KI Klaksvik v Lech Poznan — both teams to score Pafos v Red Bull Salzburg — both teams to score Anderlecht v PAOK — both teams to score thin data	3	18.0%	5.55	51.41	+825.5%	−14%
Pafos v Red Bull Salzburg — both teams to score KI Klaksvik v Lech Poznan — over 2.5 goals Anderlecht v PAOK — both teams to score thin data	3	18.4%	5.44	48.98	+799.7%	−14%
KI Klaksvik v Lech Poznan — over 2.5 goals Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Shamrock Rovers — over 2.5 goals Omonia Nicosia v Lincoln Red Imps FC — both teams to score thin data	3	14.3%	6.97	58.11	+733.6%	−14%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Shamrock Rovers — over 2.5 goals Omonia Nicosia v Lincoln Red Imps FC — both teams to score Vikingur Reykjavik v FC Thun — over 2.5 goals thin data	3	14.2%	7.06	54.30	+669.5%	−14%
Vikingur Reykjavik v FC Thun — over 2.5 goals CSKA Sofia v Maccabi Tel Aviv — over 1.5 goals Omonia Nicosia v Lincoln Red Imps FC — over 2.5 goals thin data	3	23.0%	4.34	27.21	+527.1%	−14%
CSKA Sofia v Maccabi Tel Aviv — over 1.5 goals Omonia Nicosia v Lincoln Red Imps FC — over 2.5 goals Rangers v Jagiellonia — over 1.5 goals thin data	3	32.0%	3.13	17.86	+470.9%	−14%
Rangers v Jagiellonia — over 1.5 goals Heart Of Midlothian v Benfica — both teams to score Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Shamrock Rovers — both teams to score thin data	3	21.7%	4.61	24.03	+420.8%	−14%

By competition 9 fixtures across 1 competition · 27/27 selections priced

UEL (9 matches) all days →

Best value in UEL

Match	Selection	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	Lincoln Red Imps FC A	23.1%	4.33	20.89	+382.7%	3.00%
KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	KI Klaksvik H thin data	40.7%	2.46	5.47	+122.9%	—
Omonia NicosiavLincoln Red Imps FC	Draw	25.9%	3.85	8.29	+115.0%	3.00%
Heart Of MidlothianvBenfica	Heart Of Midlothian H	22.6%	4.43	6.27	+41.4%	1.97%
AnderlechtvPAOK	PAOK A	48.9%	2.04	2.46	+20.5%	3.00%
RangersvJagiellonia	Rangers H thin data	73.2%	1.37	1.51	+10.8%	—

Goal markets in UEL

Match	Market	Pick	Model	Fair	Book	EV	Stake
RangersvJagiellonia	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	41.8%	2.39	7.84	+227.6%	—
RangersvJagiellonia	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	63.0%	1.59	4.41	+177.8%	—
AnderlechtvPAOK	Totals	Over3.5	34.8%	2.87	7.62	+165.5%	3.00%
AnderlechtvPAOK	Totals	Over2.5	56.3%	1.78	4.58	+158.2%	—
KI KlaksvikvLech Poznan	Totals	Over3.5 thin data	39.4%	2.54	6.38	+151.3%	—
CSKA SofiavMaccabi Tel Aviv	Totals	Over2.5 thin data	49.9%	2.00	5.01	+150.1%	—

Omonia Nicosia HOME v Lincoln Red Imps FC AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Omonia Nicosia 1.82 – 0.93 Lincoln Red Imps FC

Omonia Nicosia 51% · draw 26% · Lincoln Red Imps FC 23%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Omonia Nicosia	51.0%	87.3%	1.10	-36.3pp
Draw	25.9%	9.8%	8.29	+16.1pp
Lincoln Red Imps FC	23.1%	2.9%	20.89	+20.2pp
Over 1.5	75.5%	51.1%	1.83	+24.4pp
Under 1.5	24.5%	48.9%	1.91	-24.4pp
Over 2.5	51.7%	28.4%	3.48	+23.3pp
Under 2.5	48.3%	71.6%	1.38	-23.3pp
Over 3.5	30.4%	15.2%	6.81	+15.2pp
Under 3.5	69.6%	84.8%	1.22	-15.2pp
BTTS Yes	50.8%	24.3%	3.93	+26.5pp
BTTS No	49.2%	75.7%	1.26	-26.5pp

Omonia Nicosia win

51%

Draw

26%

Lincoln Red I… win

23%

Omonia Nicosia or draw

77%

either team

74%

draw or Lincoln Red I…

49%

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Omonia Nicosia clean sheet

39%

Lincoln Red I… clean sheet

16%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–0 11% · 2–0 11% · 2–1 10%

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.51); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 37% (fair 2.71); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +57%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +50%
Omonia Nicosia win + Omonia Nicosia clean sheet — 33% (fair 3.07); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +43%

Pafos HOME v Red Bull Salzburg AWAY

17:00 · UEL · expected goals Pafos 1.38 – 1.27 Red Bull Salzburg

Thin data: Pafos 16 matches, Red Bull Salzburg 290 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Pafos 33% · draw 25% · Red Bull Salzburg 42%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Pafos	33.4%	33.6%	2.75	-0.2pp
Draw	24.5%	28.1%	3.25	-3.6pp
Red Bull Salzburg	42.1%	38.3%	2.43	+3.8pp
Over 1.5	73.9%	40.5%	2.32	+33.4pp
Under 1.5	26.1%	59.5%	1.58	-33.4pp
Over 2.5	49.5%	21.6%	4.69	+27.9pp
Under 2.5	50.5%	78.4%	1.29	-27.9pp
Over 3.5	28.4%	15.2%	6.60	+13.1pp
Under 3.5	71.6%	84.8%	1.19	-13.1pp
BTTS Yes	53.1%	27.3%	3.98	+25.7pp
BTTS No	46.9%	72.7%	1.50	-25.7pp

Pafos win

33%

Draw

25%

Red Bull Salz… win

42%

Pafos or draw

58%

either team

75%

draw or Red Bull Salz…

67%

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

BTTS Yes

53%

BTTS No

47%

Pafos clean sheet

28%

Red Bull Salz… clean sheet

25%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 9% · 2–1 9% · 0–1 8%

Correlated combinations

Red Bull Salz… win + Red Bull Salz… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +107%
Pafos win + Pafos clean sheet — 21% (fair 4.87); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +87%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.66); naive multiplication would say 23%, off by +63%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.41); naive multiplication would say 27%, off by +54%

KI Klaksvik HOME v Lech Poznan AWAY

17:30 · UEL · expected goals KI Klaksvik 1.66 – 1.50 Lech Poznan

Thin data: KI Klaksvik 26 matches, Lech Poznan 18 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

KI Klaksvik 41% · draw 25% · Lech Poznan 34%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
KI Klaksvik	40.7%	15.7%	5.47	+25.0pp
Draw	25.2%	20.1%	4.40	+5.1pp
Lech Poznan	34.1%	64.2%	1.48	-30.1pp
Over 1.5	81.9%	50.6%	1.86	+31.3pp
Under 1.5	18.1%	49.4%	1.90	-31.3pp
Over 2.5	60.8%	28.6%	3.44	+32.2pp
Under 2.5	39.2%	71.4%	1.38	-32.2pp
Over 3.5	39.4%	16.2%	6.38	+23.2pp
Under 3.5	60.6%	83.8%	1.23	-23.2pp
BTTS Yes	59.6%	30.0%	3.61	+29.5pp
BTTS No	40.4%	70.0%	1.55	-29.5pp

KI Klaksvik win

41%

Draw

25%

Lech Poznan win

34%

KI Klaksvik or draw

66%

either team

75%

draw or Lech Poznan

59%

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

BTTS Yes

60%

BTTS No

40%

KI Klaksvik clean sheet

22%

Lech Poznan clean sheet

19%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 2–1 9% · 1–2 8% · 1–0 7%

Correlated combinations

Lech Poznan win + Lech Poznan clean sheet — 14% (fair 7.00); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.60); naive multiplication would say 14%, off by +96%
KI Klaksvik win + KI Klaksvik clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.67); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +91%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.38); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +66%

Vikingur Reykjavik HOME v FC Thun AWAY

17:30 · UEL · expected goals Vikingur Reykjavik 1.49 – 1.64 FC Thun

Thin data: Vikingur Reykjavik 7 matches, FC Thun 82 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Vikingur Reykjavik 34% · draw 26% · FC Thun 39%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Vikingur Reykjavik	34.3%	37.3%	2.48	-3.0pp
Draw	26.3%	24.7%	3.64	+1.5pp
FC Thun	39.4%	38.0%	2.44	+1.5pp
Over 1.5	81.4%	53.4%	1.76	+28.1pp
Under 1.5	18.6%	46.6%	2.02	-28.1pp
Over 2.5	60.1%	30.8%	3.21	+29.3pp
Under 2.5	39.9%	69.2%	1.43	-29.3pp
Over 3.5	38.6%	17.9%	5.81	+20.8pp
Under 3.5	61.4%	82.1%	1.26	-20.8pp
BTTS Yes	59.2%	37.9%	2.88	+21.2pp
BTTS No	40.8%	62.1%	1.76	-21.2pp

Vikingur Reyk… win

34%

Draw

26%

FC Thun win

39%

Vikingur Reyk… or draw

61%

either team

74%

draw or FC Thun

66%

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

BTTS Yes

59%

BTTS No

41%

Vikingur Reyk… clean sheet

19%

FC Thun clean sheet

23%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 7%

Correlated combinations

Vikingur Reyk… win + Vikingur Reyk… clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.84); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +117%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 28% (fair 3.52); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +93%
FC Thun win + FC Thun clean sheet — 18% (fair 5.65); naive multiplication would say 9%, off by +92%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 16% (fair 6.26); naive multiplication would say 10%, off by +65%

CSKA Sofia HOME v Maccabi Tel Aviv AWAY

18:00 · UEL · expected goals CSKA Sofia 1.66 – 1.01 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Thin data: CSKA Sofia 16 matches, Maccabi Tel Aviv 45 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

CSKA Sofia 52% · draw 28% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 19%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
CSKA Sofia	52.3%	45.8%	2.04	+6.5pp
Draw	28.3%	28.3%	3.22	+0.0pp
Maccabi Tel Aviv	19.4%	26.0%	3.48	-6.5pp
Over 1.5	74.2%	38.5%	2.43	+35.7pp
Under 1.5	25.8%	61.5%	1.52	-35.7pp
Over 2.5	49.9%	19.8%	5.01	+30.1pp
Under 2.5	50.1%	80.2%	1.24	-30.1pp
Over 3.5	28.8%	11.6%	8.59	+17.2pp
Under 3.5	71.2%	88.4%	1.13	-17.2pp
BTTS Yes	51.4%	34.3%	2.86	+17.1pp
BTTS No	48.6%	65.7%	1.49	-17.1pp

CSKA Sofia win

52%

Draw

28%

Maccabi Tel A… win

19%

CSKA Sofia or draw

81%

either team

72%

draw or Maccabi Tel A…

48%

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

CSKA Sofia clean sheet

36%

Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet

19%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–0 11% · 2–1 10% · 2–0 10%

Correlated combinations

Maccabi Tel A… win + Maccabi Tel A… clean sheet — 12% (fair 8.63); naive multiplication would say 4%, off by +171%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.63); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +58%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 40% (fair 2.51); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +54%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 20% (fair 5.13); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +53%

Rangers HOME v Jagiellonia AWAY

18:30 · UEL · expected goals Rangers 2.21 – 1.07 Jagiellonia

Thin data: Rangers 357 matches, Jagiellonia 6 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Rangers 73% · draw 16% · Jagiellonia 11%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Rangers	73.2%	62.6%	1.51	+10.6pp
Draw	16.2%	21.9%	4.07	-5.8pp
Jagiellonia	10.6%	15.5%	5.58	-4.8pp
Over 1.5	83.3%	44.4%	2.11	+38.9pp
Under 1.5	16.7%	55.6%	1.69	-38.9pp
Over 2.5	63.0%	22.2%	4.41	+40.8pp
Under 2.5	37.0%	77.8%	1.26	-40.8pp
Over 3.5	41.8%	13.1%	7.84	+28.7pp
Under 3.5	58.2%	86.9%	1.18	-28.7pp
BTTS Yes	56.3%	35.7%	2.75	+20.6pp
BTTS No	43.7%	64.3%	1.53	-20.6pp

Rangers win

73%

Draw

16%

Jagiellonia win

11%

Rangers or draw

89%

either team

84%

draw or Jagiellonia

27%

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

BTTS Yes

56%

BTTS No

44%

Rangers clean sheet

34%

Jagiellonia clean sheet

11%

Likeliest scores: 2–1 10% · 1–1 9% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 8%

Correlated combinations

Draw + Under 2.5 — 13% (fair 7.44); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +82%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 27% (fair 3.69); naive multiplication would say 15%, off by +81%
Rangers win + Rangers clean sheet — 30% (fair 3.32); naive multiplication would say 21%, off by +40%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 50% (fair 2.02); naive multiplication would say 37%, off by +32%

Anderlecht HOME v PAOK AWAY

18:30 · UEL · expected goals Anderlecht 1.38 – 1.58 PAOK

Anderlecht 28% · draw 23% · PAOK 49%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Anderlecht	28.2%	34.0%	2.71	-5.9pp
Draw	22.9%	28.3%	3.23	-5.4pp
PAOK	48.9%	37.7%	2.46	+11.2pp
Over 1.5	78.9%	41.8%	2.24	+37.1pp
Under 1.5	21.1%	58.2%	1.61	-37.1pp
Over 2.5	56.3%	21.9%	4.58	+34.4pp
Under 2.5	43.7%	78.1%	1.28	-34.4pp
Over 3.5	34.8%	13.2%	7.62	+21.7pp
Under 3.5	65.2%	86.8%	1.16	-21.7pp
BTTS Yes	56.9%	30.4%	3.58	+26.5pp
BTTS No	43.1%	69.6%	1.56	-26.5pp

Anderlecht win

28%

Draw

23%

PAOK win

49%

Anderlecht or draw

51%

either team

77%

draw or PAOK

72%

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

BTTS Yes

57%

BTTS No

43%

Anderlecht clean sheet

21%

PAOK clean sheet

25%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8% · 0–1 8%

Correlated combinations

Anderlecht win + Anderlecht clean sheet — 15% (fair 6.67); naive multiplication would say 7%, off by +120%
PAOK win + PAOK clean sheet — 20% (fair 5.12); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +86%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 32% (fair 3.17); naive multiplication would say 17%, off by +81%
Draw + Under 2.5 — 18% (fair 5.71); naive multiplication would say 11%, off by +59%

Heart Of Midlothian HOME v Benfica AWAY

18:45 · UEL · expected goals Heart Of Midlothian 1.01 – 1.59 Benfica

Heart Of Midlothian 23% · draw 23% · Benfica 54%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Heart Of Midlothian	22.6%	13.5%	6.27	+9.0pp
Draw	23.2%	19.5%	4.52	+3.6pp
Benfica	54.3%	66.9%	1.42	-12.7pp
Over 1.5	73.0%	52.9%	1.77	+20.1pp
Under 1.5	27.0%	47.1%	1.99	-20.1pp
Over 2.5	48.3%	30.9%	3.20	+17.4pp
Under 2.5	51.7%	69.1%	1.43	-17.4pp
Over 3.5	27.3%	17.8%	5.83	+9.6pp
Under 3.5	72.7%	82.2%	1.26	-9.6pp
BTTS Yes	50.9%	31.4%	3.41	+19.5pp
BTTS No	49.1%	68.6%	1.56	-19.5pp

Heart Of Midl… win

23%

Draw

23%

Benfica win

54%

Heart Of Midl… or draw

46%

either team

77%

draw or Benfica

77%

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Heart Of Midl… clean sheet

20%

Benfica clean sheet

36%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 12% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 0–2 9%

Correlated combinations

Heart Of Midl… win + Heart Of Midl… clean sheet — 13% (fair 7.99); naive multiplication would say 5%, off by +159%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.58); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +57%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 39% (fair 2.54); naive multiplication would say 25%, off by +56%
Benfica win + Benfica clean sheet — 28% (fair 3.53); naive multiplication would say 18%, off by +56%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë HOME v Shamrock Rovers AWAY

19:00 · UEL · expected goals Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.37 – 1.16 Shamrock Rovers

Thin data: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4 matches, Shamrock Rovers 26 in this model's history. Ratings that sparse sit near the league average, which flatters the weaker side badly when the two come from different divisions. Shown for completeness, not as a forecast.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 42% · draw 29% · Shamrock Rovers 30%

	Model	Market	Book odds	Edge
Egnatia Rrogozhinë	41.5%	45.1%	2.07	-3.6pp
Draw	28.9%	26.3%	3.44	+2.6pp
Shamrock Rovers	29.6%	28.6%	3.18	+1.0pp
Over 1.5	71.5%	44.1%	2.12	+27.4pp
Under 1.5	28.5%	55.9%	1.68	-27.4pp
Over 2.5	46.4%	23.4%	4.30	+23.0pp
Under 2.5	53.6%	76.6%	1.32	-23.0pp
Over 3.5	25.7%	12.5%	8.17	+13.1pp
Under 3.5	74.3%	87.5%	1.17	-13.1pp
BTTS Yes	51.2%	32.3%	3.34	+18.9pp
BTTS No	48.8%	67.7%	1.59	-18.9pp

Egnatia Rrogo… win

42%

Draw

29%

Shamrock Rove… win

30%

Egnatia Rrogo… or draw

70%

either team

71%

draw or Shamrock Rove…

58%

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

BTTS Yes

51%

BTTS No

49%

Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet

31%

Shamrock Rove… clean sheet

25%

Likeliest scores: 1–1 13% · 1–0 10% · 0–1 9% · 2–1 9%

Correlated combinations

Shamrock Rove… win + Shamrock Rove… clean sheet — 17% (fair 5.92); naive multiplication would say 8%, off by +114%
Egnatia Rrogo… win + Egnatia Rrogo… clean sheet — 23% (fair 4.36); naive multiplication would say 13%, off by +77%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.5 — 38% (fair 2.60); naive multiplication would say 24%, off by +61%
BTTS No + Under 2.5 — 41% (fair 2.47); naive multiplication would say 26%, off by +56%